Shillitocettwo
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Posts posted by Shillitocettwo
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I would describe the pressure chart synoptic as the 'jammed launderette' at the moment, NW Europe has a rather persistent 'Washing Machine Low' throwing its 'cycles' of rain at us and SE Europe has the persistent high pressure dome 'tumble dryer' ie. the intense heat
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Is there a year in rhe CET series with June being the warmest month? Bar a 1 day heatwave this July so far feels like October is squatting in it weather wise.
Also the big l SST anomaly seems to have evaporated back to a broad everywhere is 1.C above average status
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I might end up regretting this but I'd like a revision please. I'm increasingly thinking no chance for a July 2023 record breaker!
The sort of month that under normal sea temperatures would be cool, wet and quite poor and in the upper 15s, however with SST anomalies and some attempt at a 30 Cs heatwave by close of play will still manage to worm its way up to 18.0C with a wet 80mm.
Thanks
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20.1.C and 76mm. A record breaker although it will only squeak itself into the 20.0.C or above club.
After what will be a really quite poor start, with average at best temperatures and a polar maritime flow, the winds will switch back to southerleys and essentially give us 2 heatwaves.
The first will be typical Spanish plume fayre, low 30.Cs temps, nothing too extreme, but after an Atlantic pause, the second will linger and ratchet up the temperatures day by day, eventually giving us a second consecutive north of 40.C month, this time a nudge of 0.6.C to 40.9.C. Despite the CET languishing in the 15.Cs for the first 3 days the heat of the last 10 days will throw it over the line.
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3 hours ago, Roger J Smith said:
I will track the monthly CET in two decimals for general interest. As reported it is on 16.8 now. The exact value (total 386.5) is 16.804.
A mean of 21.5 for today would leave the total at 408.0 and the average at exactly 17.00. 19.1 would leave it exactly 16.90. So to jump two spots to 17.0 will require a mean of 20.3 or higher (which is possible). Let's say it does reach 17.00, then a 19.5 day on Sunday would leave it 427.5 (25 days) and the average would then be 17.10. So to reach 17.10 over the weekend the two days must add up to the same total as 21.5 + 19.5 or 41. (20.7 and 20.3 get to the same point after 25 days, etc).
From there with five days left, the means from 17.10 to end of month would be
(23.7 required to tie 1846 at 18.20, even 1976 did not manage that average)
18.90 required to end 17.40
18.30 required to end 17.30 and 18.36 to tie 1826 at 17.31.
17.70 required to end 17.20
17.10 required to end 17.10 and 17.16 to tie 1822 at 17.11
16.50 required to end 17.00
15.90 required to end 16.90 (15.84 ties 1976, 15.56 ties 1798)
(etc, take off 0.6 for each lower end result)
I will adjust those projections from the actual CET after 25 days, just a daily update tomorrow, that more detailed info on Monday).
I think third place is strongly odds on. Despite an Atlantic influence which would under normal circumstances give a 15-16.C at this time of year the sea surface temperature anomalies are insane and until at least October IMO even westerlies will push temperatures north of 20.C by day.
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Who at this stage thinks July is going to hit the big 20.C?
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Yep those sea surface temp anomalies are pretty disgusting! I think Summer's going to push into November this year with some very mild weather. I wouldn't rule out a 14-15.C October CET at rhus stage!
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Ignoring the 3 month forecast I wrote on the Summer thread......
16.0.C and 42mm.
I think we have a predominantly dry and sunny month, however winds will often be from the wrong direction for exceptional warmth. Many low 20.C days, even mid 20.C in places however the theme this year so far of nothing that exceptional at the high end temperature wise but a complete absence of anything low either will yield a 'new normal Global Warming' type average. A great month if you like decent weather without it being TOO warm.
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Here's how Summer 2023 is going to go down...
June 2023- Punctuated by regular hot plumes from the Sahara. At *this* stage nothing record breaking but still, dry, warm to hot and sunny! CET 17.1.C
July 2023- This month will see the absolute annihilation of many temperature records.
Ironically not starting off over warm, low to mid 20s at first, however very hot air from the Sahara will plume up and, unlike most plumes that are short lived, an exceptionally hot plume will ease itself over most of the UK and stall.
40.C? Well.... 40.3.C again on one day (after a week of 30.Cs temps)....followed by a record breaking night no lower than 27.C somewhere....then the next day will see some 41s. Then 42 and 43. On the peak of the heat, somewhere will hit an insane 44.4.C in the UK.
The heat will be just one side of this story however. The second, once the hot air has parked over the UK its source will be cut off. This is where pressure falls and flooding of Biblical proportions will occur, with red warnings over wide areas of the UK immediately following the red heat warning. Five inches of rain will fall in 20 minutes in one area, causing most of a town to be underwater. Absurd temperature contrasts will follow, with temperatures still in the high 30.Cs in sunshine yet below 17.C in the intense downpours. It will take a week or so for the heat to slowly leach out, with a dew point of 27.1.C recorded somewhere.
The upshot? CET of 25.1.C smashing the record by over 5.C and an absolute clarion call to solve climate change. With 126mm of rain due to the thundery breakdown!
August.....well a gentler sunny but not as excessively warm month after a very warm start, will still pump a record 20.1.C CET.
Warmest Summer on record by an incredible margin (in fact due to carbon sequestration technologies actually lowering CO2 levels from the 2040s July 2023 will never be beaten.)
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It's insane that the top 5 May's were all pre 1850, it's one of those months climate change has yet to topple, although one gets the feeling when it does it could be obliterated December 2015 style!
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I'm going to slip in a minutes before the deadline alteration please....
Average rather than cold early doors but temperatures in their 40.Cs in Spain (more record heat) will plume our way breaking records here too.
So now 13.0.C and 64mm please
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On 20/04/2023 at 09:51, Relativistic said:
Christ, imagine May 1996 four years in a row...
Yes I was 15 then and remember how dire it was. We had a weather station at school and I commented to my Geography teacher how bad the average temps were!
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I'm going to go with one of my common extreme predictions. I reckon May will be noted for extreme contrast. A notable cold snap will strike for the Coronation and expect to see King Charles out in thick wet snow showers. However, a freak heatwave near the end of the month will see temperatures breaking May records in the low to mid 30.Cs.
Overall the CET surprisingly academic at 12.4.C due to a very below average first 12 days. Precipitation 49mm, wetter first half.
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A real shocker at only 6.7.C!
Starting off average and wet, however a protracted run of Northerly winds will pull the second half down significantly, with a very unseasonable snow event as a large Atlantic Low piles into subzero air creating a nasty leading edge of heavy snow, creating school closures around the 25th April!! Some damaging frosts late month, Gardners beware. Wet at 104mm.
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This one will be quite a shock to the system. Within days the full impact of an SSW will hit with what will feel like a slightly less severe Beast than 2018. Frost, barely above zero temperatures and what will feel like Winter has arrived. The CET will actually still be running sub 3.C until the 24th where a more normal end will yield a 4.1.C overall. Exceptionally dry at 16mm.
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Extremes haven't worked for me in January.
So I'm changing rack and going for a very average straight 6.0.C (average adjusted for climate change) and a devilish 66mm.
Within that a good few days of snow late in the month otherwise tilted mild
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Im going in for a dramatic one for the New Year....it totally contradicts my year long one and I'm willing (and indeed almost hope) to crash and burn....
CET 10.3.C and 94mm
A December 2015 of January's on steroids. Will soon take a mild SW flow that will,once set up, linger all month to produce one of the most horrific mildfests ever known for a Winter month, with day after day of mid teens with rhe occasional 17, 18, 19 and even a 20.C abomination and a rarity for the nights to actually fail double figures...only a cool start scuppering what would otherwise be even more out there. Smashing the CET record by some degrees and many other records lost in an unbelievable non Wintry month
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Despite the coldish weather here the Arctic anomaly is horrific at present at nearly 7 degrees ABOVE average.
(Climate Reanalyzer website courtesy of the University of Maine)
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I too predict December 2022 will be a bit of a shock to the system with a below average month temperature wise with quite a nasty run of cold in the week before Christmas Day, damp Northerly cold that can't quite hit freezing by night but barely gets much higher in the day with 2-3.C and regular wet snow that doesn't quite stick.
Christmas to New Year will be foggy and weirdly a little milder but 3.9.C and a surprisingly dry 26mm.
PS my current thinking on the rest of the contest year...
January 2023- A bit like Saudi Arabia beating Argentina this will be really unexpected, against the dominant global warmingy form and noteworthy.... biting Easterlies dominating a cold dry month with some pretty brutal nighttime lows on the minus double digits ,coldest since December 2010 at -0.3.C (11mm)
February 2023...A real oddball month starting out with a Storm Emma into Beast from the East pattern and several days of disruptive snowfall but seguing into an extremely mild even warm second half with temperatures hitting 23.C in Kew Gardens by months end. CET 7.9.C and 73mm
March 2023.... Back to something more normal this month after such a mild February and actually colder overall CET 7.3.C and 66mm
April 2023..... An absolutely staggering build up of heat seeing records broken over 30.C and total destruction of the current CET record at 13.0.C and a bone dry 6mm
May 2023..... Will be remembered as Summer for this year, tinder dry, hot, CET 16.6.C and 5mm
June 2023.... An absolute collapse of the early Summer into a jammed jet stream pattern feeding Low pressure off the North Sea most of the month. Much colder than May at a dismal 13.3.C and 156mm leading to all Maine of flooding issues
July 2023.... Like June but with more bite, heat on the Continent will encroach into an unsettled pattern and feed thunderstorms into the mix, wettest July on record at 226mm and 16.0.C triggering a weather emergency to be declared as Nottingham and Yorkshire effectively 'underwater'
August 2023....Drying out by painful increments, salvaging something of a Summer as it goes on and warming up again to give CET 17.6.C and 73mm
September 2023..... Quite calm and Indian Summer like at 16.0.C and 28mm
October 2023..... Not really cooling much, very mild and a few daily records removed at 13.0.C and 46mm
November 2023.....Very much like this one, very mild at start and more normal by close 8.8.C and 88mm
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Yes in my experience Autumn does seem to have warmed more than any other season, I remember when you would get well below zero nights and frost in November, now the entire season seems barely capable of scraping a light ground frost together,and that's in the Midlands bang in the middle of the CET area!
On the other hand the one month that seems to have failed to notice Global Warming is June..... I'm sure I did a plot of June CETs since the Maunder Minimum days and incredibly the trend line was negative!
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With the revised CETs I see the first over 10.C month making it the warmest on record.
Very little cold weather on offer at least in the CET zone with a notable exception....
Around the 24th an horrific storm rivalling the Great Storm of 1987 will tear through the UK bringing havoc in its wake. Very notably it will see an insane temperature swing from highs exceeding 20.C around noon which will be wiped out to give blizzards by teatime and 0.C conditions on a vicious northerly cold front quickly chasing the warm one.
Very mild at 10.3.C and a wet 127mm to boot.
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My initial instinct about this being a mild one is no more.
Essentially October 2022 will be Autumn on steroids, expect some very windy wet spells but I feel it will settle right down and turn October 1997? esque near the end with a massive High over Scandinavia bringing an early chill and some hard early frosts which prevent the daytime high getting too high. As a result a surprising single figure CET of 9.5.C (which will rapidly descend late month) and a triple figure 111mm deluge
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This will be a warm September, not quite record CET but up there in top few at 16.5.C feeling every bit as warm as an 'average' July.
Two more heatwaves to go, one early doors with a few 30.Cs about and another late doors with a feed of continental air and 29.C realised. However, mid month will see a sudden return to the cool one front after another pattern bringing much needed rain and a wetter than average 88mm.
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On 20/08/2022 at 08:56, Earthshine said:
17.0C and 40 mm going for the record breaker
I went for a 17.C last September and for a good proportion of the month the CET was running somewhat higher but it got obliterated by a cold end!
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August 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
I think August will be horrific. CET 15.0.C even cooler than 2014. It will start unsettled and cool and apart from one half decent weekend with a ridge of high pressure the run of Lows will be relentless with some cool days and a few quite shockingly cold nights, even a widespread ground frost around Bank Holiday.
The heat will remain in the Med