Shillitocettwo
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Posts posted by Shillitocettwo
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It would be interesting if data exists for top 2and half of September CET values.....
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5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:
16.7c to the 6th
2.0c above the 61 to 90 average
1.5c above the 81 to 10 average___________________________
Current high this month 16.7c on the 6th
Current low this month 14.4c on the 1stWow....my 17.0.C is currently closest! May even jump over it after today!
The challenge then is holding on to it.....
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Here's a curveball for yall. 17.0.C and 29mm. Yes warmest September on record. What will be even weirder is it will largely be a result of a totally unforseen prolonged heatwave during the Second half of the month, with an African/Spanish plume pushing temperatures to several date records in the low 30.Cs by day and high teens by night with September's first ever tropical night over 20.C in places late month at that. Get ready for a freakish Indian Summer!
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August won't be a wall to wall heatwave but I predict regular warmer than average spells interspersed by the odd Low cooling. This will send August to a warm 18.5.C but the Lows will be thundery at times so will wring out 100mm.
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Does anyone know what the biggest month on month swing is? May-June could be a 7.C uplift provided this current cool spell doesn't trash it.....
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Although the start of the month might be no great shakes, heat will intensify and we are looking at a hot sunny second half. CET 18.9.C , no record but very respectable. EWP 77mm, enough rain first half and an odd thunderstorm second month for this.
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I’m going to have to amend mine sorry as it appears that Summer has shown up for the first part of June. Consequently about the only thing that would give a 10.8 as I predicted is an eruption in Yellowstone!
Amended prediction - 14.4.C and EWP of 99mm
Despite a warming and settled start, I reckon the pressure patterns will be slack and large periods of the month will be vulnerable to the June sunshine sparking off thunderstorms....so a bit wetter than average. Grew growing weather but a headache for planning events!
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I am going for a ‘reverse Lettucing’ for June.
CET 10.8.C
Yes, coldest June on record and first ever sub 11.C June.
The month will fail to warm significantly from May with an incessant feed of Northerlies or North Easterlies. Temperatures by day will stay rooted in the low teens and by night under any clear spells will readily fall into single figures. Nowhere in the UK will hit or exceed 20.0.C all month!
A particularly brutal Northerly feed mid month will send some locations even in England failing to reach double figures... followed by some very unseasonal frost and temperatures falling below zero widely across the country.
The most spectacular aberration this month will be a Low that piles into the cold air. This will feature SNOW on its leading edge and temperatures bottoming out to 0.C briefly in parts of the Peak District with short lived blizzard conditions.
EWP an academic 77mm
Summer is coming......in August!
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Crikey I now feel I've gone too HIGH with my 9.9.C prediction for the month!
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I remember May 1996, seemed cool and overcast for most of it.
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I think May will fail to even hit a double figure CET. Frequent incursions of Arctic air but interspersed at times with vicious Lows and flooding(!) will be an isdue in places by end of month. Feeling strangely autumnal at times. CET 9.9.C and a deluge of 168mm.
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My 10.6.C has utterly had it lol! It’s like last April without the warmth.....
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I now think that this month will start below to well below average temperature wise with a spell of unsettled Atlantic weather mid month but I reckon a really outrageously warm spell with air originating from. Africa will break records and give the UK first ever above 30.C temp in April before demelioration to a chilly but dry end. Snow, thunder, gales, sun and heat April 2021 will have the lot.
Temp 10.6.C
Precipitation 99mm....above average but in a few really heavy bands around 11th.
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Rest of year....
April 2021 - Very unsettled with a succession of vicious Lows and ‘April Showers on Steroids’ Generally cool but a warm incursion mid to late month. 8.6.C
May 2021 - More settled and a lot of sunshine, however some very chilly nights and unseasonal hard frost. 11.6.C
June 2021 - A really decent sunny start to meteorological Summer with above average temperatures, however the weather will really lose it towards the end of the month with some really unseasonable cold coming off the North Sea. 14.0.C, but a near record breaking start demeliorating later.
July 2021- Summer on hold initially with a run of wet weather and sub par temperatures however improving steadily but nothing to write home about. 15.5.C
August 2021- A very average start giving way to a 2 week long heatwave before turning a bit autumnal. 17.6.C
September 2021 - Classic Indian Summer September with very sunny and surprisingly warm weather, only falling short of record CET levels due to cooler nights. 16.0.C
October 2021- A real ragbag of weather with a bit of everything and a somewhat freakish spell of snow mid month. Overall theme rather cool. 8.9.C
November 2021 - In contrast to October, rather drab, foggy and settled but not particularly cool. Incredibly warmer than October. 9.0.C
December 2021 - Way milder than average at first but a sharp transition just before Christmas with a White one widely. 6.6.C
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On 20/02/2021 at 12:09, BornFromTheVoid said:
Latest projections and probabilities.
The chances of finishing:
Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is to 46% (two days ago it was 65%)
Above average (>4.9C) is to 64% (two days ago it was 31%)
Below average (<3.9C) is to 0% (two days ago it was 4%)GFS for the 20th to the 25th averages about 9.2C, pulling the CET up to 5.1C.
That’ll do nicely, my 5.2.C is rolling in, even if I lost my head a bit claiming we’d see 25.C with these African winds....
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6.0.C and 88mm please.
The first 3 weeks will be broadly anticyclonic and very dry. It will be slightly cooler than average throughout this. How cool will vary greatly depending on subtleties in wind direction, which will be predominantly Easterly but temperatures by day largely decent with night time values pulling the average down with hard frosts.
However an about turn last week into very unsettled and wet Atlantic weather which will set the scene for an ‘April Showers on steroids’ style month (think April 2012.)
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10 hours ago, Sunny76 said:
I think summer 2004 and 1980 were pretty cold at times. July 2004 was chilly at times, I remember one day only reaching 13-15c in west London. That’s very poor for high summer.
I remember starting a new job July 2004 and the office being freezing!
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On 23/01/2021 at 17:42, Shillitocettwo said:
5.2.C and 38mm.
Not particularly noteworthy on the surface. However, there will be a brutally cold snap between 10th and 17th getting below -20.C in places with the CET running not much above freezing mid month, but an insanely warm shot of air from Africa will break records and see temperatures nudging 25.C by the close of the month (think the 2019 Feb heatwave on steroids) sending the CET soaring.
Wow... -22.C in Altnahaara this morning!
Roll on the heatwave by end of month......
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On 19/01/2021 at 18:15, summer blizzard said:
Would 8C not at least give you a chance.
December 2015 delivered an outrageous 9.7.C so 10.C with the Sun that few degrees higher than Dec is not impossible! Granted unlikely....
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5.2.C and 38mm.
Not particularly noteworthy on the surface. However, there will be a brutally cold snap between 10th and 17th getting below -20.C in places with the CET running not much above freezing mid month, but an insanely warm shot of air from Africa will break records and see temperatures nudging 25.C by the close of the month (think the 2019 Feb heatwave on steroids) sending the CET soaring.
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I think January will be cold with a few disruptive snow events but the odd mild incursion will prevent anything really cold for the whole month.
3.1.C and 105mm please.
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I think its going to be disgustingly mild....worse than the infamously mild December 2015. 10.3.C (a new record) with a ridiculously mild feed around Winter Solstice....I see temperatures hitting 20.C on the 20th in 2020 making for a great headline. Check climate reanalyser out, as of 19th Nov the Arctic area anomaly is an outrageous +6.7.C and thats with respect to 1980-2000! Rainfall roughly 100mm
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I go with a predominantly unsettled, wet and windy month, with some rather mild days but more on the way if polar maritime and Arctic, could get some short lived sleet flurries. 6.9.C and 117mm
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202 minutes late sorry (but I don't remember to play every month anyway......)
I personally think October 2020 is going to be absolutely horrific and end of the world like at times. I think that sometime in mid to late October, say the 19th, we are in for a vile Atlantic storm which will rival and actually surpass the Great Storm of October 1987 which will rip up trees and cause unwanted devastation which just adds to the increasing misery wrought by Covid.
There will be nothing settled about this month and the overall temperature will be fairly academic at a mild 11.8.C but within that extremes will exist with a predominant westerly but every wind direction and air mass source will get represented, at times snow on the mountains, with at least one very short lived Spanish plume sending warmth info the high 20.Cs with a ridiculously mild night following breaking date if not overall month records.
Needless to say very wet, although severe gales will be that much of a feature that the rain that does fall will often just get blown away by evaporation in the quieter interludes! So less flooding than this total suggests which us one positive....156mm.
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September 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Anything 16.3.C or higher will do nicely thank you, cant believe 15.5.C is the second highest entry!