Shillitocettwo
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Posts posted by Shillitocettwo
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What does the August CET need to be to beat 1976s record across the three month meteorological summer period?
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I know this is the August thread but here goes for an Autumn prediction.....
September 2022 - one or two more relatively intense bursts of heat exceeding 30.C interspersed with dome cooler Atlantic flows but way above average CET 16.4.C
October 2022 - Again mild, not record breaking but high teens and low twenties days not uncommon....a couple of really chilly frosty nights mid month derailing a highest ever CET 12.5.C
November 2022 - The stand out month, in many ways a December 2015 of November's with an outrageously freak heatwave early month courtesy of well above average temperatures lingering in the Med.... 25 or even 26.C will be realised obliterating the record with the CET at a crazy 16.C by even thd 10th, however a decline to average or near average temperatures later will yield an 11.5.C still a comfortable warmest ever Nov
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The heat will return, not to quite the record breaking values of July but this will be a more consistent 1976ish heatwave, although it will end spectacularly with thunderstorms which will cause major disruption to Reading Festival. CET 18.9.C (despite the fact I had a feeling August will be record breaking , think we've had enough records for one year....
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On 20/06/2022 at 21:27, Shillitocettwo said:
Am I first?
Starting quite warm and quickly developing into a month with protracted warm or very warm even hot spells, with temperatures in the mid to high 30.Cs and 39.C will be reached at some point in the month.
So I'm going to slap a straight CET of 20.0.C on this although I feel this will be the prelude to an August completely off the charts which will go even higher!
Dryish overall but what rain falls will mostly come from thunderstorms at 44mm.
I didn't go high enough. 40.C it was! A truly monumental day in British climate history, but at the same time a concerning canary in the coal mine for anthropogenic climate change. It feels a bit like when an athlete smashes the 100m record but you know there's doping involved.....
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1 minute ago, Earthshine said:
Not often that June records the coldest temperatures of the year...
Even manages to break the known laws of Physics with a significantly below absolute zero return....
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I think August will see this heatwave continue and the first Level 4 heatwave alert, with rules demanding non essential businesses limit work to early morning. With a CET of 21.C possibly.
Check out the current Mediterranran sea temp anomalies too......these will come back to bite with a very unusual November heatwave with 25.C exceeded and an insane CET of 11.7.C seeing a monthly record. But a massive drop to 3.1.C in December and disruptive Christmas snowfall!
Anyway how high can this heatwave push the July CET? I fear the pathetic start has scuppered 20.C but you never know.....
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Am I first?
Starting quite warm and quickly developing into a month with protracted warm or very warm even hot spells, with temperatures in the mid to high 30.Cs and 39.C will be reached at some point in the month.
So I'm going to slap a straight CET of 20.0.C on this although I feel this will be the prelude to an August completely off the charts which will go even higher!
Dryish overall but what rain falls will mostly come from thunderstorms at 44mm.
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I know this is the June thread but I've had a feeling about August 2022 for years.... I think it will smash records and go down in legend like 1976....were talking a CET well above 20.C and 40.C being reached.
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I don't see June being particularly warm at this stage, often unsettled with a lot of Arctic winds so 14.0.C and 57mm
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I see the majority of May seeing a total change from the current dry weather with a protracted run of Lows, some rattling through quickly, others lingering and parked up over the North Sea sending a prolonged feed of rain and chill. However, the last 10 days or so will see a real warm spell with temperatures moving from the 10-15.C highs most of the month will be stuck on to something in the high 20.Cs. Due to a lack of cold nights the CET will come out surprisingly warm at 13.4.C but with a wet 126mm.
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A yo-yo type of month with several quite cold incursions and wet snow falling even at low levels and quite far south, however very mild to warm at other times. Predominantly on the dry side except for an unseasonable lingering Low near the end of the month throwing fronts and rain off the North Sea. Cooler than average at 8.0.C and a dry 22mm
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On 20/02/2022 at 20:00, Summer8906 said:
7.8 and 55mm.
Perhaps somewhere between March 2000 and March 2020. for weather, but warm. Warmer and sunnier than average; changeable to start, but the transition to settled occurring earlier than 2020. Settled mid month, perhaps more changeable again late month but with a blocked rather than zonal regime.
(I'm surprised at the ranking of CETs incidentally, with 2000, 2014 and 2020 all cooler than I'd have expected - cooler than 1981 or 1991 - and 2017 warmer than 2012! I'm amazed March 2020 was only average, I remember it being mild and wet turning warm and very sunny).
Think the colder nights killed off any real warmer than average CET in 2020
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I'm going to stick my neck out on this one. A record 10.0.C caused by a phenomenal heatwave at the close of the month with a 28.C recorded somewhere making it the warmest March CET and day on record. Heat courtesy of a Low to west High to East bringing a steady southern plume all the way from Africa. However the month will still get a good transitory snowfall in on the 10th. Rainfall 88mm.
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On 31/01/2022 at 14:30, Shillitocettwo said:
Although the start of the month will be fairly quiet, I reckon that before long Atlantic storms will be queuing up to lash rain and gales at us for most of the month and Half Term will be a washout. Think February 1997 it will be similar. Very wet!
Nothing particularly cold that lasts any length of time, I think this has got 6.0.C and 166mm written all over it.
I've got the storms right aright!
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Although the start of the month will be fairly quiet, I reckon that before long Atlantic storms will be queuing up to lash rain and gales at us for most of the month and Half Term will be a washout. Think February 1997 it will be similar. Very wet!
Nothing particularly cold that lasts any length of time, I think this has got 6.0.C and 166mm written all over it.
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A December 2015 of Januaries with a near constant feed of way too mild air with very little in the way of cold. A record breaking 9.1.C and 148mm
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I am going to also go for 5.9.C about time we had one.
Although it will often be cool and snowy, a ridiculously mild spell at some point in the month with mid teens temperatures will more than wipe out any below average ness.
EWP 59mm
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Current CET predictions....
December 2021 - 5.5.C Slightly milder than average with a lot of settled weather and fog....often on the South side of the jet so not desperately cold and struggling to get below zero even in those settled conditions. Very dry.
January 2022- 3.8.C More unsettled but occasional Northerly feeds. Most snow showery in nature rather than persistent.
February 2022 0.8.C A notably cold month with a Beast from the East type weather pattern mid month with minus daytime temps and minus double digit night time temps with a juicy snowfall event as milder air takes back over.... a very mild end scuppering what looks like could be a sub zero CET for much of the month.
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I see November being predominantly mild, sometimes very mild with daytime temperatures in the upper teens but it won't be a blanket mild month with the odd Arctic air mass paying a brief visit. 8.8.C and 88mm please
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That downward correction is horrific! Oh well!
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16.58.C and 27 hours to go......am I right in thinking 16.26.C or more is required to win this?
However it doesn't exactly look warm tomorrow and I think downward correction would knock me off anyway.... shame Autumn turned up in the last 4 days of September otherwise 2006 may have lost its crown!
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I see October being quite mixed but on the mild to very mild side and rather wet.
12.5.C and 99mm please
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On 20/09/2021 at 21:58, Roger J Smith said:
The current EWP is around 25 mm and appears headed for only the low 30s now, which would mean that our lowest forecast (29 mm) from shillitocettwo would take top spot. On the CET front, he's at 17.0 there and can finish as high as first (CET 16.3 or higher), or as low as 20th (CET 15.8).
Everyone else already knows within one position where they are likely to finish in the CET as second highest forecast is 15.5 (syed2878) and it seems unlikely that September\s CET would drop below that. There are numerous predictions of 15.0 so outcomes around 15.9 to 16.1 can have a big impact on where shillitocettwo finishes.
Also at stake would be best combined forecast, as shil could do as well as first in both, while I am somewhat more locked in to third or fourth CET and third EWP. I'll be quite happy to see a bold forecast do well.
I'm surprised the CET is still at 17.0.C or so this late on. I dont expect much attrition to it this week, however the last 4 days if we get the Jet stream sending polar maritime air at us could clobber it and dump rain. I think the CET will hold above 16.0.C even with downward correction however how much above that is the real question. I could take 1st on both or be pushed well down depending on the last 4 days of September!
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Come on 17.0.C you can do it!
Although a 2nd half of 16.6.C (and higher with downward correction) would be monumental!
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August 2022 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
Think 1976 is safe then!
Although Aug 22 has a reasonable shot at warmest Aug CET