GSP

After such a good GFS 0z, I wasn’t expecting such a good 6z in truth. Yes, the words of caution at this stage are very valid. It just takes one pressure system not to behave as expected to throw a spanner in the cogs. But my, are we getting interested now!

Some important changes medium term run to run leaving many options still on the table.

Out to 126 and that low is too near Iceland again.

Yes, it has to be a careful what you wish for. Makes you wonder how many people would be caught out/affected by something they haven’t encountered before by the extreme cold possible shown on some charts f it was to arrive here in some form.

Such a large temperature differential between the very cold air to the north and relatively mild air to the south wants to create a lot of rain in the UK’s vacinity.

I suspect Joe Public would be horrified to hear through having cleaner air means sustained higher temps increasing at a faster rate for the near term (whatever that is, 10 years, 20 years, a 100 years ?!). We will breach that precipice more quickly through our actions of reduced emissions! Not a message that is wanted out there but what one should be the statement on this as the current message is a lie. Cleaner air will warm the climate even faster. Not many will like that message, but that is the reality.

Thank you for your reply. Interesting you say we should expect increased temps with cleaner air in the near term. Is that message out there for Joe Public as I am sure some maybe expecting instant results through reducing omissions. And they might want to know want 'near term' means as in duration as this could be 10 years, 50 years in man terms. 50 years of sustained warming through having cleaner air actually may put us near the precipice.

My first post so thank you for putting my post into a more suitable area of the site. This is from a site called Newscientist.com "First of all, it is worth bearing in mind that any data on global temperatures before about 150 years ago is an estimate, a reconstruction based on second-hand evidence such as ice cores and isotopic ratios. The evidence becomes sparser the further back we look, and its interpretation often involves a set of assumptions. In other words, a fair amount of guesswork". I really am not qualified for this but doesn't this throw a lot of doubt on both sides of the coin? It could be graphs are drawn depending on what side of the fence you sit, but none are accurate. Through my lifetime, with the cleaner air gone are the pea souper fogs of the sixties and early seventies but other seasonal events are rare or non existent nowadays. Snow and a two week cold spell (remember the fen ice skating and ice skating on dutch canals, both gone) summer Thunderstorms, even though temperatures have risen these are much rarer. For me something happened to our climate as far back as the mid seventies. I remember Bert Ford saying at that time in one of his forecasts in November "Here is an area of high pressure over Norway, and it will probably sit here until April influencing our weather from time to time". Since the year he said that, that high pressure has found it very hard to establish itself in that area and is usually blown away by the jet stream. As far as I know, jet stream potentcy is caused by the difference in temp between the arctic and equatorial regions. It seems both regions may be warming so this should not have an effect on the jet stream as the changes cancel each other out. So what is causing the jet stream to ramp up. Not climate so there must be something else? In all, I still think the jury is out as to what is happening to the climate in this world and is not just restricted to man. There are other factors at work, or other factors at least not being considered. If our cleaning of the air IS contributing to the increase in temps, just when will this stop if we have a fair way to go still? Again while I do want to get rid of fossil fuels, I am concerned we are putting all our eggs in one basket thinking that if we continue to clean our air this will stop the increase in temps. Not totally unstanding the subject, we might be asking for greater trouble than we think if we are barking up the wrong tree.