[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I’m feeling quite good in Bromley about that long line of convection stretching up to Norwich. Still refusing to settle on roads and pavement though

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Lots of flakes now, starting to try and settle on other surfaces - let’s see if this can keep up as the heavier lot moves westwards over me 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Heavier stuff certainly intensifying westwards over the last hour. It’s nearly here! Still steady light snow here settling on the grass

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Heaviest it’s been so far. Still not settling on paths but starting to get the grass a bit whiter (it’s been snowing about 2.5 hours). Seems like it’s getting colder and the band is getting some intensity going - it would be ideal if this could last for hours. Seeing the pictures from further east that’s very impressive, surely somewhere will get to 10 inches?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Snow showers up north look way more widespread than forecast by any hi-res model. This should give us some hope later on

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

2 minutes ago, nanu said:

Raining again here now.... dont you just love london 

Raining in catford?? That’s pretty unlucky but cold air is still feeding in so that should stop

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Very very windy in Bromley, and just started to snow in the last 10 mins or so. Small flakes but a lot of them - would be settling if they were larger. I’ve been just on the western extent all night. Let’s see if it moves. A lot is going to do with how fast it moves away

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

A little sleety I think in Bromley / looking at radar animations I’ve been on the edge of precipitation the whole time, maybe this intensification will help me

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Possibly a few flakes if I really try in a heavy bit. I’ll be off to sleep now for a bit 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

 

 

I have attached the associated charts, both btw show 'actual snow accumulation by the end of their respective runs'

Expect UKV is being slightly conservative further inland.

Thank you  I make that about 10cm in Bromley on EURO4. We can hope

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:

EURO4 18z and UKV 21z beginning to show some very large accumulations now and more widespread than previous runs.

You got any charts to hand quick?

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Nick F thank you for that map, it’s excited me. I’ll be extremely happy with that in Bromley, 15cm feels like another planet compared to recent times! 

wait breaking news my BBC app has just downgraded my snow chances at 4pm tomorrow from 45% to 36%. That’s it, I give up, moving to Canada

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Ben M said:

I've been watching nearly every BBC news channel forecast since lunchtime (well the Saturday night/Sunday part) and I didn't hear that phrase used once. The uncertainty stressed was the northern & western extent of the band but it was confidently expressed that Essex Kent etc would be affected by heavy snow & blizzard like conditions & 'potentially' extending into the London area etc too. That's been the jist from the last few forecasts

Ah okay thank you, was referencing something up in the thread but I hadn’t watched it, so that’s good to hear. Keeping fingers crossed for SE London...

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

If the BBC really did say “might clip the SE” then that’s worrying. There’s a good chance that’s inaccurate - I reckon we’ll know more by 10pm forecast. They can’t possibly not stress uncertainty then

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I know it’s an app, but whether it thinks these showers will hit me or not, that really is a rare sight

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Well here in Bromley I’m certainly pinning my hopes on a Thames streamer, but maybe my Kent postcode will get me some good stuff for Sunday . I know it’s said above but I reckon the models are underplaying convective stuff tomorrow within “Storm Darcy” so I’d say I’m still confident

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Well BBC London mentioned significant snow along the Thames. Wasn’t shown on graphics but clearly streamers are in the thinking

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

On the met matrix, those areas are only in amber for the highest impact, it’s still down on the likelihood. This means that as we get closer, we should see likelihood increase, bringing all areas into amber, and if it gets really extreme I wouldn’t be surprised to see a red for today’s amber areas - they’re thinking highest possible impact already

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Right, amber warning bingo? I reckon east anglia, Essex and Kent for sure today. Less sure about London at this point but fingers crossed

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

Some very optimistic and unrealistic predictions from them!

40cm in London everyone !!

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Snowflake Queen said:

When was the last time we saw that ? Genuine question btw 

I think the Wednesday evening of the 2018 BFTE. More potent, and I guess the textbook example, was the 02/02/09 event which I’m pretty sure gave quite a few inches for me in Bromley - it’s referenced with videos a few pages back in this thread

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

1 minute ago, Ols500 said:

We need this flow more easterly for a good old Thames steamer 

I think there will have to be such a flow at some point in this, low pressures, kinks in isobars etc all possible in this cold

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

13 minutes ago, Maidstone marginal said:

I think the quality of the bbc weather service has taken a downward turn since met office lost the contract. Since 2018 they always seem to be 12 to 24 hours behind the models,,, even at really close range. Met office cost bbc too much money I guess.

100% it’s a worrying thing in set ups like this as well, giving people false hope or not warning of potential disruption in time etc

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Just now, Maidstone marginal said:

They are using 22 hour old Ecm data I think. Maybe someone will correct me?

Yep that is true, I guess my point was that they often avoid actually saying that sort of thing even if it’s in the raw output. Maybe they think that’s more likely 

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

BBC forecast seemed pretty bullish there, mentions of 10-15cm for some of our area...