Eagle Eye
-
Posts
7,256 -
Joined
-
Last visited
-
Days Won
42
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Eagle Eye
-
-
That sunset earlier wasn't the last of it it turns out.
Look at the base of that thing.
Really shows here
-
2
-
-
- Popular Post
Just to round it all off (or maybe not), a Storm sunset.
-
12
-
- Popular Post
Secondary, smaller squall line approaching and once again amazing structure.
Backend of the squall line.
-
10
-
Lots of torrential showers and strong wind gusts associated here. Feels like the eye of a Hurricane now
.
-
1
-
-
Very interesting structure on the cell approaching me. Base of the cell looks fantastic, doesn't show up well on camera though.
-
4
-
-
Scuddy stuff already here as the initial parts of the squall line look to be approaching here.
-
8
-
-
That wind is really getting powerful here now.
-
6 minutes ago, LightningLover said:
I'm still awake because I have a gut feeling this back edge feature could be stronger than forecast...
Doing the same thing here, am in bed watching the IT Crowd waiting for the back edge, we can do this, we can stay up for it.
-
- Popular Post
The ECM is showing an Autumnally cycle of low's followed by attempted ridging. After the recent MJO amplitude increase, it went back down to just above the weak values and so we've gone back from settled to unsettled.
Forecast wise and despite forecasts low pressure anomalies being forecasted, temperatures are still forecasted to be above average.
As has been said by people above, there looks to be possibility of a more blocked regime and that's been a trend slowly cropping of that blocking so a more settled pattern once again is possible with the MJO amplitude creeping up around now. You would expect it to happen with a more amplified MJO but that doesn't mean it's certainty, just the most likely of the possibilities.
This blocking forecasted looks to be initially an Atlantic setup slowly moving NE and becoming the much loved (mostly by me), Scandinavian blocking. However, I suspect this could change quite a lot as it's still off in the far distance but still some good signs early on including in the fact that there are now a couple runs in the zonal wind showing already some decent Troposphere-Stratosphere coupling as the enhanced Rossby wave activity weakens the Stratospheric jet.
The MJO looks to be recycling back towards phase 6 which is the best area for a -NAO regime in terms of phases (although still favours neutral I'm pretty sure) and so after the blocking, that may be a possibility but way too far out to call.
MJO amplitude over recent years).
So at best guess, after this unsettled period we'll probably go into a time of blocking and the ECM suggests that could be Scandinavian which is the best area for Stratospheric distribution in terms of jet weakening in terms of Europe. The Pacific troughing however is unlikely and I don't think that the Troposphere-Stratosphere coupling is strong enough yet for any major events in the Stratosphere as of yet but with such quick changes between weather regimes, this Winter may become interesting very quickly. So once again I say that the best thing is to stay positive this Winter because I think a few chances will go missing like last year but one might just come off at the perfect time for a SSW.-
19
-
2
-
9 minutes ago, snowrye said:
Hello gang, apologies for my lack of checking in etc, I trust I find you very well. First things first, that's a tad windy out there tonight, I can hear the roar, blowing through the trees, and I'm very surprised there's only a yellow out. Although it moves through quickly, it's a vicious little so and so, with some very eunice type strength to it. I'll have to have the fan on, to drown out the noise, or no sleep for me.
Yeah, first time I've ever heard the wind whistle through the telegraph wires at home, spooky Halloween feel to it all lol.
Edit
Motion sensor lights down the street are going crazy.
-
2
-
-
Wind is really beginning to whip up here, still a few hours till the strongest winds push through.
-
@Ed Stone Halloween originates in Ireland to be fair, don't know exactly what it's like over there today but I think the south have had those spooky wind through the wires sound today if the earlier models were correct. They've had a couple lightning strikes as well.
-
1
-
1
-
-
@tight isobar posts make some of the most sense and anyone on here, there funny and have good knowledge even if they have their own biases so what? That's like most people on here, @jon snowloves the cold more than all of us combined doesn't mean they can't know their stuff like us. You've just got to take your time with tight isobars posts that's to fully enjoy them. I like that he (I think they're a he) is different and his own person.
-
7
-
2
-
-
Torrential rain and some early wind gusts, not loads but enough to make it a little spooky (volume on videos to hear the wind/rain), a couple scuds as well.
Time-lapse as the first shower approached.
Slowly moving overhead.
A few scuds as well as me trying to get my camera settings right and failing and some light but increasing wind
Rain starting to get torrential.
And @Ed Stone , so what?
It gives kids and even people my age lots of fun so I'm happy for it (although I don't do it myself).
-
5
-
-
3 minutes ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
My bad...hot off the press:
Interesting, do think they'll be some enhanced Convection associated with some vorticity ahead of the low so some forcing and decent PWAT suggesting some torrential rain and some alright shearing so might be a few cracks of thunder. Not much CAPE showing on the ECM though just a few hundred at most (don't know why the official ECM site has the map without a key).
-
2
-
-
Tonight does have a spooky feel to it not just with it being Halloween but who doesn't love an evening-night wind and rain threat?
Reading a book or something and listening to the wind and rain hitting the windows.
As well as that there may be the chance of some torrential rain embedded within some sort of system and maybe even the odd occasional flash of lightning.
Some vorticity ahead of the main low pressure means that there will be a small kick and drove to the atmosphere that could drive up Storms an some strong shearing mixed in although most of it is after the strongest of the vorticity goes through slightly limiting the height of the initiatial rain ahead of the low. Theres no real kick in the low pressure, normally you'd want it's Eastern side to be tilted downwards (a negatively tilted trough) for a kick in the atmosphere as it drives that little bit more shearing and vorticity I would imagine. There is some downwards tilting but not much and mainly from the low behind the one affecting us. May be some MUCAPE helping the Storms gain intensity and allowing the odd occasional strike. Whether there will be enough in a spot to allow for enhanced lightning activity is up for debate but there's no real main area where that is suggested as of yet.
Lightning flash density shares my views with some more tomorrow hogging the south coast as well perhaps aided by some sea breeze convergence.
The UKV is interesting in showing some quite intense rainfall from the Storms before the main system goes through perhaps over egging CAPE but the ECM hasn't been brilliant recently so maybe the UKV has got it correct here.
UKV is later with the arrival of the main system but brings some strong wind gusts with it and the same with the daytime convection tomorrow.
-
4
-
1
-
-
The buzz is getting real here, I reckon I'll be doing more than my once a week Olivia chosen document post with some actual forecasts.
-
3
-
-
10 minutes ago, Hoghtonwhite said:
One things for sure, a milder than average autumn always decreases the chances of a milder than average winter!
Going to have to disagree with you there, there is some truth I guess but what you've got to remember is that the troposphere and the stratosphere aren't that well coupled till late Autumn and the stratosphere does have one major impact on Winters in the form of a SSW. SSW's occur with enhanced vertical Rossby Wave propagation carrying an easterly effect onto whatever they carry into. This weakens the vortex and that allows warm air to fill in (am not sure whether that occurs with a weak vortex or whether the Rossby propogation has to be so strong that the Stratosphere is reversed) over the Arctic which depresses the air down and the weakened vortex which means that cold air has an easier path down without a jet in the troposphere blocking them. So if it's a blocking tropospheric Rossby Wave keeping the country mild it might not be too bad if there's a weak vortex going into Winter.
-
2
-
-
My top forecast verifications from this year in my opinion.
4)
3)
2)
1)
Sorry, idk the dates they were on.
-
1
-
-
Thought I'd update the SE thread on my confusing life
.
Since I'm very socially awkward I like to share my feelings somewhere where they can't see it but I have started to tell people what I think of them. I started with someone I knew wouldn't take it the wrong way because they're transgender and we're the first person in the group I talked to. I can do no wrong in calling them bro so it was easy opening up to them because I do feel that they are my bro and so cool as well as brave and I have talked to them and helped them out when they've felt bad before and also told them to ask their crush out and now they've been together with them for a few months so we're on good terms.
But now I'm going to try and be brave and tell Olivia how I feel about her, her smile is so beautiful, she is so brave and rises up to the challenge of her parents splitting up (I'm not sure if it's a divorce), I respect her so much and she should respect herself more. I thank her for motivating me to learn, nobody has done that to me before, over the last month that I've talked to her day in, day out, I learnt a significant amount about high level Meteorology including reading and summarising a pHD thesis. Then I struggled to do anything when she went to her dad's who doesn't like her talking to boys (you know the very protective type). The reason she motivates me so much is that I always want to be like the people I 'love' in a way, I'm still doing loads of sports because that's Georgie's thing, I've decided that my love for her is very much like the sister that I've never had. As well as that, Olivia is extremely intelligent, my iq was measured around 130 but her's is probably around 140 and she's one of the most intelligent people I know, the only one who is more intelligent that I know is Bruno but he's just a genius and there's no way I can get anywhere near as intelligent as him.
What is it with me and gingers, both Georgie and Olivia are ginger. I guess I feel that I've never really seen a ginger get angry or anything, they all seem to be funny and have no ego, Olivia was surprised when I called her the most intelligent and Georgie thinks she's really ugly and idk how or why because she really isn't. Olivia's never really talked about how she looks but I don't think she realises that she is the most naturally beautiful girl I know and her smile lights up a room and once it made my whole day better when she smiled when she saw me on the bus. They're both really shy as well. Olivia and I are the ones most left out of the group so naturally we gravitated together and I remember when we both shared a maths GCSE paper on the bus and did some questions together before she got off.
Anyway enough about the most confusing thing on earth.
Multiple times we have multiple troughs pushing through and so we may have further Storms or frontal rain depending on the setup, I think towards the end of the GIF around 170 hours we have the best Storm setup, with some warm air advection as well as a nearby significant troughing. I would think that would advect a PV lobe in a typical situation to last week although maybe not as strong because we're going to be close to November so surely it can't heat up as much and thr air is sourced more from North Africa so may be slightly drier.
-
3
-
-
- Popular Post
6 hours ago, LightningFox92 said:I need lightning!
️
All my 2022 lightning I've previously shared here.
-
9
-
1
-
Today's sunrise
-
5
-
-
32 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:
A lot of talk about climate change preventing a cold winter but really?
Is the Earth really that much warmer in October 2022 than it was in October 2009 or 2010?
Just saying.....
Andy
3 minutes ago, Beanz said:Is it not more likely that global warming is more likely to be affecting global weather patterns. The type of winter we experience is indirectly a consequence of global warming….
That is an interesting topic that could be discussed for a long time, in fact it just so happens to tie in with the document my friend Olivia picked out, a quote from the model thread so you kind of understand that last bit.
"
I'm getting my friend Olivia to pick between a choice of 3 documents every week for the next 3 years and I will summarise each document by the end of each week, so by the end of the 3 years when including holidays I should have read nearly 150 documents on Meteorology by the time I'm hopefully starting university."Now, away from humans and onto some less complicated stuff
How can climate change affect SSW's?
62 page master's thesis summarised:
Firstly, note that the SSW is primarily driven due to tropospheric-stratospheric coupling and Rossby waves vertically propagating from the troposphere into the stratosphere and as they carry an easterly effect onto where they propagate, the westerly jet is slowed down in the stratosphere. The reversal of the zonal winds being the way to identify a SSW. Therefore it makes sense that they occur in times of enhanced vertical Rossby wave propagation completely reversing the vortex and warm air rushes over the Arctic through dynamical processes that I don't have time to go over here because I'm starting writing this quite late.
The coupling of the troposphere and the stratosphere is at it's strongest between Winter and early Spring because the polar-night jet oscillation (something I went over last week in the model thread but isn't needed to understand everything here) is the most variable at that time.
One thing that has been overlooked a lot is that the Arctic Ocean can have effects on the SSW as the ocean-atmospheric dynamics would likely play a role because SSW's sort of begin in the troposphere as previously discussed. With climate change warming the Arctic, it's less likely that the Arctic sea ice extent can recover every year (although that could be debated but I think you'd be suffering from a recency bias as I'm pretty sure I remember people talking about decent sea ice extent in recent years but in the grand scheme of things this thesis is probably right on this topic). Although this document does go on to say, "Previous research indicates that the influence of the declining Arctic sea ice trends on the frequency of SSW events remains unclear".
Now we introduce the, "Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP)", which is used as a foundation for ocean-atmospheric coupling research and simulations.
Note that a lot of this is theoretical but if the Ocean and the troposphere are truly coupled then the rest of it is very useful for understanding the impact of climate change on 'some' Winters and this difficulty in understanding coupling between the ocean and the atmosphere is why Winters are much more difficult than summer's to forecast using climate models.
SSW's occur roughly every 2 year's but with varying strength's, for example, minor SSW's can occur when the descending weakened jet cannot make it into the troposphere because it does not have enough downwards movement. The most severe events and the most in general happen in January (my and Olivia's birth month lol) but some years they have been seen as late as March. Later events are considered to be "stratospheric final warmings".
During the Winter, to make it easier to read zonal wind graph's in case anybody reading this is confused, to put it basically:
When the zonal winds are negative - Easterly jet (hence why you see the cold lovers go crazy when they see 1 little bit of negative, just kidding I feel like that'll be me this Winter though I tend to get overexcited)
When the zonal winds are positive - Westerly jet
This is typically more stable during the summer but during the Winter those pesky(or helpful) Rossby waves begin affecting the zonal winds and so it's more unstable during the Winter. It can be thought of that, there is westward momentum in the troposphere which is transported upwards mainly in the Winter and disrupts the stratospheric movement. However, this westerly angular momentum is changed and refracted. I didn't know lot about that last part and so searched up about that but could only find it about electromagnetic waves and so my best guess its that a large thermal gradient as these waves propagate into the stratosphere causes a change of speed and of direction sort of how light bends in water which makes sense because the atmosphere is best thought of as a fluid made of gas and these waves act similarly to light waves. This large thermal gradient caused by the Rossby wave vertical propagation, I did note in the PJO discussion although I don't remember going over this. A large upward flux of westerly energy is therefore not necessarily a bad thing in the context of a SSW if there is a large thermal gradient in the stratosphere as far as I can understand because that'll likely get reversed into an easterly angular momentum. This specifically is the dynamics of how the vortex decelerates.
SSW's can be of significant impact to the Northern Hemisphere over Winter and so we have to consider the area that it takes place over. Sea ice is important for balancing the energy processes because it regulates the fluctuations of heat at the surface. Unfortunately, due to climate change, the Arctic has lost a lot of it's sea ice volume and so it's unable to recover and refreeze as well as it used to be able to. There is therefore, a heightened sensitivity in the Arctic with thermal gradients and increased forcing products. It is believed that increased warming in the Arctic especially compared to most of the rest of the world (or just the Northern Hemisphere specifically) could lead to a more amplified jet although that is theoretical. Although the suggestions for this are difficult to tell, there is some supporting evidence such as the moisture, cloud cover, air temperature and heat flux all increasing in recent years (up to 2017 for this paper).
Using the previously mentioned Ocean-atmospheric model, there is shown to be a weak change in the amplification of the planetary waves but enough to be statistically significant suggesting westward jet amplification and also westerly angular momentum amplification in the troposphere should be possible if the surface and troposphere couple as the model shows.
The model also shows the AO more predominantly in the neutral phase with less and less Arctic sea ice which favours a SSW because the closer the AO is to negative, the more the zonal winds slow down and the polar vortex is affected a lot easier when this happens.
However, the lower-tropospheric thermal gradient is predicted to decrease by the climate modelling and the upper-tropospheres will increase and so it's unclear the response in the circulation of the jet would be here.
Then it goes on to how it got that data and a conclusion which if you want to read, I have attached the whole document below, note that I missed out a few paragraphs in the sections when typing this up because I've already spent 2 hours doing it and I need to rest sometime as my brain is getting confused.
https://scholarworks.sjsu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=8344&context=etd_theses
-
1
-
5
-
-
.png.44a9967416337aa590bc70a6725b2be2.png)
.png.b5d6757fcfddf06b6e354e5508321c24.png)
.png.43a8e9d753384fc7076cd20e62bbb5e3.png)
.png.d4095f70a8c02d34e3402bb559d60d1a.png)
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
That sunset earlier wasn't the last of it it turns out.
Look at the base of that thing.