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Eagle Eye

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    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    xx_cyclone-en-330-0_euro_2022090900_15810_480_240.thumb.png.877a63022f38af033cc36b2f906e2668.png
    Danielle looks to be fixed on a specific track right next to Iberia. As it does, it will probably push up energy next to it's eastern flank (starting in the SE quadrant) and a typical late season plume may be possible. What I mean by that is that everything will probably be borderline, low CAPE, borderline good theta-W values, SST's may still be pretty high though and with a low pressure in that position nearby, shearing is likely to be relatively strong. 

    Hard to tell how it will breakdown of course but I would think something similar to this week but less coverage and probably less energetic as we move towards Autumn. After that, we focus on Hurricane Earl which moves towards Greenland and it clears a path to it's east, allowing ridging to build up according to the GFS and there is decent cross model and ensemble support for this.

    Haven't got much else to say, surprisingly, a lot seems to have high model agreement suggesting the outcome will be relatively similar (between 6-10% usually for agreement to deviation based off my 'research' last year,  I didn't do enough research for definite but it seems a good standard for the deviation). Big deviations are unlikely to change the ridge that much because Hurricane Earl's track looks to be understood well by the models. So the next 10 days seem to be relatively easy to forecast, chance for some of it to change but not majorly I would think.

    • Like 7

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Eagle Eye

    2 hours ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

    Morning all,

    Hope I find yourselves and your Families, well.

    Much thanks for your Birthday wishes, Malcolm.

    I must admit Malcolm, I've had more enjoyable Birthdays.

    Both my Wife and myself, had our Fourth Covid vaccine jabs [Moderna], on Weds. Morning.

    Unfortunately, Colette has the AutoImmune conditions Psoriasis, Raynaud's Disease and she's had quite a nasty reaction, to her jab. She's had a similar reaction to the one she had, after her first Covid jab [AstraZeneca].

    Colette has a hypersensitive Immune System, which has gone into overdrive after these vaccinations.

    I'm certain that both myself and Colette had Covid, right at the start of the Pandemic, and as this most recent vaccine [Moderna], has strands of the original Covid Virus and the Omicron variant, it seems likely that Colette's Immune System recognised and repelled the original Virus but rejected the Omicron variant strand of the vaccine. 

    Poor thing, spent all Day in bed Yesterday and was wimpering in pain, overnight.

    We've had to delay my Birthday celebration, until Colette feels better.

    Of

    Sorry to hear about Colette,I hope she and you feel better soon.

    • Like 2

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    7 hours ago, Woodboss said:

    Always good to get them into it at a young age! I've taken my 9 year old son out twice now this year and he's had 2 direct hits already,he was buzzing but we did get a pretty close CG and he said he nearly crapped his panties🤣!

    Wish my parents liked weather as much as some people on here 🤣, occasionally I have gone garden chasing though and one time did go to the local park to try and get a better view but apart from that, nothing really. I might go to the windmill next time but I'll need a coat (I don't have one I think ) because there's nowhere to hide if I do.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Danielle seems to be lining up pretty well with moving towards NW Iberia as a rough direction.
    Here's what the National Hurricane Centre said, all I'm interested in is it's rough track but you may be interested in how it's expected to move as well.
    "Danielle is moving northeastward at 14 kt, and this general motion should continue for the next few hours. A slow down and counterclockwise loop is expected to occur later today and Friday when the cyclone interacts with the trough that is expected to cut off. After that time, a faster motion to the southeast is forecast, which should take the extratropical cyclone toward western Europe by the end of the period. The NHC track forecast was adjusted a little to the right after the counter clockwise loop due to an overall shift in the model guidance."
    083712.thumb.png.b556c3287557a09d18781160e7935ccc.png083712_earliest_reasonable_toa_no_wsp_34.thumb.png.9bcb11e18d891ef4d36cc5c28068820d.png083712_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.thumb.png.bf4b245837b737695272b0bfc5f6ab78.png

    Where Danielle is

    image.thumb.png.e5b39a3e5c335cf635fc6db56dd2309c.png

    I would think that this would interact with the warm(ish) air in front of it and push energy up in maybe a few pulses, so more torrential downpours for areas of the coast are possible, depending on how much moisture there will be available in the atmosphere, flash flooding may be a risk in the future from these pulses of Storms that may occur.
    For proper long term rain, Danielle may or may not offer it to us but I would head towards not because it'll proper peter out near Iberia.

    You can also see Hurricane Earl here, in the upper middle of the picture and that looks to also be headed towards Greenland and then the direction after that is too far ahead to really know which way it's going.
    image.thumb.png.6f612b8bf04a9ff96d0960a91230d8c0.png

    So still not too much in the way of definite frontal persistent rain, there may be some for Ireland and Scotland with an Atlantic front but for the areas across Eastern England that need it the most, frontal rain doesn't look like happening much soon, instead the BBC Weather loved term 'pulses' of rain seem to be the most of what's possible.

    • Like 4
    • Thanks 1

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    My risk for today

    I could have put further risk increases further north but my thinking was that the lack of CAPE and Low Shearing may counteract convergence so I'll keep it to slight risk for now because that area will probably either bust or be very strong and I've already had one enhanced risk bust yesterday so I don't want another one to.

    Anyway, onto the general risk for today.

    Surface Based convection likely gets going country wide early afternoon perhaps even earlier but mainly pulse Storms with some organisation possible across the Midlands but the extent of which is hard to tell because the area of convergence varies from run to run and so does the strength of CAPE. Further south and after having a similar day to the rest of the country, convergence looks possible sometime in the evening to early morning hours with an increase in CAPE as well and almost all models show some sort of line of Storms forming across where the enhanced risk area is.

    Polish_20220908_073603753.thumb.jpg.cda1ea1226d72627015959caefb8bbf6.jpg

    • Like 4

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    More Storm chances today.

    Widespread general CAPE with some shearing and perhaps some organisation of Storms, very much like yesterday but further south according to the NMM.

    nmm_uk1-28-14-0.thumb.png.cfbe92f9151bc19f31447c0507a524dc.png

    Before the final night event looks to take place in the early hours of tomorrow morning according to the NMM and the ICON D2.

    nmm_uk1-29-26-0.thumb.png.45cac08cfdac0b6f838c238ee34b951e.png

    icond2-29-25-0.thumb.png.641e9c7ae2bdb1231819240a7166b18a.png

    But the UKV says something different with them occurring late evening and perhaps towards the early night hours as well.

    1772686004_nmmukprate(21).thumb.png.877766baa2d07e55fdf44990856142dc.png

     

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Looking at the movement of Danielle as it moves across the North Atlantic, looks like it should track towards Portugal by sometime late this week/earlier this week. I would think that it may move North as typical forcing tends to move these N once they reach Portugal (as a rough direction, may end up moving NW or NE) and that may send heat our way but mainly concentrated on the eastern side of the island, there may be more on it's way later on as the North Atlantic continues to create tropical Storms but we don't know of their tracks yet.
    xx_cyclone-en-330-0_euro_2022090700_5478_480_danielle-144.thumb.png.f6bbf569e3408dbaf15c902c6aa37a5f.png
    image.thumb.png.0d755b0a16fbd17ddd546c79b4d6bcaf.png

    • Like 7

    SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion

    in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

     

    There is a Forecast of yet more possible Thundery activity, Today.

    The characteristics of last Night's events, were virtually identical to the previous Night.

    A narrow band of heavy Ppn. Although our Bedroom was in darkness, I saw no Lightning.

    .

     

    I think this shows that Storms can be somewhat predicted quite accurately based off previous events. Even with just CAPE and Shearing you can get q pretty good prediction.

    Low CAPE and High Shear usually equals an organised MCS or a squall line, much like Moderate CAPE and High Shear. Sometimes this can create Supercell's as well.

    High CAPE and Low Shearing events typically end in some organisation of Pulse Storms depending on convergence.

    High CAPE and moderate Shear events typically end in quite a messy setup, same goes for High CAPE and High Shearing events.

    Moderate CAPE and Moderate Shearing is typically between the two and the hardest to predict.

    That is one reason why Im starting to think that lift and Shearing in the atmosphere with 800 J/KG of CAPE is a very good setup compared to previously liked setups with High CAPE in them.

    • Like 3

    Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards

    in Storms & Severe Weather

    Posted

    1 hour ago, mud_error said:

    Thanks! this is pretty cool. This shows 5 CG strikes within a few hundred metres of me last night in the space of 3 mins around 9:56, thought that was a scarey and loud episode. Is it accurate, do we think? Also, 4 of them show as positive and only one negative - how can they tell? Also interested if the power they say they have can be measured - the worryingly close 13 KA "strong slammer" does sound kind of dramatic.

    13KA is pretty usual for power here, its on the high end but not that extreme, usually a couple occur every Storm.

    • Like 1
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