Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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My risk for today
Vs Convective Weather's
*Coughs
Issued mine before Convective Weather
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Good morning everyone who's up really early (or if you're reading this at 11am pretending you were up at the crack of dawn), its the 0Z's that are up for discussion here as we go into the final major day of this week by the looks of it, signs later next week could be Stormy however as well but only on one or two of the non major models.
Multi-Model HD thunderstorm risk and Flash Flood Index, would suspect local flash flooding may be an issue again but not as much as yesterday's could have been.
Looking closer to risks of note.
Precipitation 6H at 7PM
ECM
GFS
ICON
AROME
For whatever reason the ICON D2 is going all out for this one.
The ICON D2 has a resolution of 2.2KM which may support the theory that Storms will probably be quite localised, hence why the less resolution models aren't catching all of the Storms and so all of the precipitation. In which case, if the ICON D2 turns out to be correct but the Met Office didn't factor it into warnings and the warnings for today were slightly lower, that would be a weather forecasting disaster because this would lead to widespread localised flooding and the less resolution models just wouldn't have picked it up, I imagine they do look at most models however. They've got their own high resolution model as well.
The UKV, which is 1.5 KM, its not doing as well as it has done in the past at the minute but let's have a look at it anyway.
First Storms begin arriving mid morning in the form of imports before the Surface Based Storms get going, the UKV suggesting something similar to the ICON D2 in that the lower resolution models just aren't picking up either the amount of Storms or how strong they can get or maybe both.
One problem is that they train over roughly the same area (due to wind convergence)so they will give a lot of flash flooding to some places if they do that and nothing to others.
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Watched the Storm around 10PM last night, not very bright flashes but flashes nonetheless, no thunder but we've now had 5 showers since yesterday began, the latest one around just now probably brought some actual rain to the garden because it lasted for around 10-20 minutes and quite persistent. Not a lot but its something.
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16 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:
Had some much needed rain here, not sure why these cells are reluctant to produce lightning though.
Little shearing, poor lapse-rates so relying totally on moisture for cloud height, so not really tall Storms and typically taller Storms have higher lightning frequency, I would assume because it gives better chance of separation of positive and negative ions, hence why Storm height is z better indicator than CAPE, low CAPE,high shear events typically end in higher lightning frequency than high CAPE, low shear events, such as the May 19th Storms here.
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7 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:
Under a 50% for lightning though (not sure about Watford to be fair)would rather no severe weather anyway because the more Severe the weather, the bigger the impact on lives. Would be happy with a normal thunderstorm with persistent rain, as long as its not a dry thunderstorm.
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2 minutes ago, Jason T said:
Not out of the question though EE possibilities..also all that lovely energy they can pick up crossing the channel, nice recharge re load .
Yeah, interested to see what happens come nightfall, even if they collapse, they could produce an outflow Storm although those are typically day events, holding my excitement in for now.
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1 minute ago, bluebell said:
Never say never Eagle
Eye we live in hope for a flash, bang light show soon..!
This time I won't tell my friend a Storm is coming and everything should be a-okay (did that this morning sorry everybody, jinxed all of your chances).
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I know I said that we were best off looking at the Belgian Storms for Outflow pools to be created (not their actual name I just like to call them that now) rather than directly but...
Wishful thinking I think
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15Z UKV lowers the potential tonight but stabilises the potential for tomorrow, tomorrow looking like it'll going to be a slightly easier day to predict than first thought.
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Towers on Eastern extent went up within tea time, so atmosphere isn't short of energy, maybe there is quite a big capping in place keeping a lid on things or maybe the lapse-rates were doing a similar thing?
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1 hour ago, seb said:
A glimmer of hope maybe looking at the cells over the Channel east of Cherbourg but I think they’ll miss us to the West unless they expand a lot.
You should probably be looking at the centre of France because that's where the cells will begin that will likely move NE towards Belgium, however in the process, some backbuilding or creation of a more energetic pool of air over the channel, potentially from outflow winds may happen and push a Storm towards us as shown on the latest UKV model run.
One cell looks to approach Essex and stay there for quite a long time.
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Had a quick look at the mid-level lapse-rates earlier and thought they looked a bit poor away from the areas already getting hit, they usually are the main causes for stopping Storms in the USA but rarely seem to have too much of an effect here so probably just a coincidence and having more to do with the lack of significant surface heating with the cloud keeping the temperatures down. Most organisation looked likely to happen in a few hours away from now so may have some brief Storms but I don't think as much as was forecast.
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(Nicked from Instagram)
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3 minutes ago, Dami said:
THUNDER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Alex's is doing well for herself this year
This was me earlier (nicked it from Instagram)
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25 minutes ago, Liam Burge said:
Hey is there a website for this outlook? Like what does the green/yellow/orange/red mean and what are the risks associated with each category?
Green is geneeal risk, then yellow is slight risk, orange is enhanced and red is moderate risk, pink would be high . I really should add that to my template now that I think about it, I just put them on twitter every day.
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14 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Clear convergence zone already. Higher temps already north of that as the sun is blazing through the humid early morning murk/mist from earlier. Feels ripe out there!
Just need to extend that Moderate a bit further west and I should be roughly correct then, not bad I would say considering I made this with no Convective weather input at about 7AM this morning but I don't like to big myself up, so I'll just say I got lucky because I was silly and only looked at one model run
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23 minutes ago, PiscesStar said:
A piddling of O2 then warm and overcast in Herne Bay East Kent
Just air then?
Seeing as Oxygen in the air is O2 lol
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Seen it before in Greece around a week ago, where it took till about 7 PM for a Storm to form and when it did it was a relatively small thunderstorm with maybe just a couple strikes but what it did do was when it collapsed and moved away, another one popped up from its cold outlflow as night fell producing lightning every couple seconds, then another Storm approached from the south, it was amazing and so Storms kept on going, even if a bit stop starty, from 7PM till half 11PM. I know it's not a great example but its the best I've got myself.
Earlier this year in the UK is another example for me, no Storms over us till half 2PM, then all of a sudden Storms for the next couple hours (albeit with little lightning visible but quite a lot of thunder could be heard) just kept popping up.
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Will be in Ashford on a sleepover tomorrow, maybe tracking these
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1 hour ago, seb said:
Should have known better than get excited. The Central East Kent rain and storm shield remains in full force.
We’ll be lucky to get two minutes of drizzle.
Did move a little bit NE,getting rain here so imagine you will soon.
This is definitely a sound I welcome
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Just now, Ben Sainsbury said:
Think here will be the focal point for any large developments in the next few hours. Cloud thinning, cumulus congestus evident on Sat24.
What do you think my chances are here, either today or tonight?
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Storm in the channel is splitting and therefore looks to be heading closer to me (still quite far away however) so fingers crossed here.
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8 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:
The one day I need the rain to hold off till Mid-Afternoon so we can get a Landscape project completed, I bet it pours hard and puts us back!!!!
Wonder if the stuff in the Channel starts to break over land or intensifys??
Models say start to break but I do wonder whether any surface heating has any effect on theta-W considering air rises, if there's strong column vorticity then the heat should be further up and so the 850's should intensify over land and theta-W at 850hpa is when it's brought moist adiabatically to that level and becuase that layer would be warm with convection processes based off what I just said, that would in fact, intensify the Storm likely, although, if there is little to no column vorticity then the Storms will simply die out entirely once their energy source is gone.
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Convective Weather's take on this
"Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 16 Aug 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 17 Aug 2022
ISSUED 06:35 UTC Tue 16 Aug 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
Longwave upper trough over western Europe will disrupt, forming a cut-off upper low over the Bay of Biscay by 06z Wednesday. The net result is the cold pool over the British Isles, atop a warm, moist low-level airmass (15-17C dewpoints), will begin to warm aloft as heights rise across the neck between the cut-off low to the south, and the ejected trough to the northeast - perhaps limiting the depth of convection in places. This, combined with rather extensive cloud and fairly moist profiles casts some concern over the quality of deep convection that can develop. Nonetheless, most model guidance is rather keen on showers/thunderstorms developing, so we entertain this possibility for now.
Showers/thunderstorms/outbreaks of rain may be ongoing across southern England and the English Channel first thing on Tuesday morning, and this may slowly lift north through the morning, turning increasingly convective in nature towards midday. Peninsula convergence is expected to develop fairly quickly through the morning across SW England, and by late morning a similar evolution to Monday is possible across Devon and Cornwall (but perhaps extended even further southwest towards Penzance etc) with slow-moving torrential thunderstorms developing. Additional heavy downpours and thunderstorms are likely to develop along marked low-level convergence zone(s) running from SW England northeastwards across the south Midlands / M4 corridor to western East Anglia, aided also by a small surface low developing in the vicinity by the afternoon. In this area shear will be rather weak, resulting in outflow-dominant pulse storms that collapse and create substantial cold pools; daughter cells then form nearby and this whole process distorts the shape and location of the CZ such that it may shift and wriggle north/south at times through the afternoon and evening, dictating where new cells develop. The greatest concern is flash flooding from slow-moving torrential downpours which could occur in a number of places, indeed some areas could very locally receive accumulations exceeding 100mm. Some hail and gusty winds may accompany the most intense cells, but in general below severe threshold. Vorticity stretching by updrafts may allow a couple of funnel clouds to occur.
Showers/storms may persist well into the evening and night, eventually morphing into large areas of showery rain and becoming an effective cold front. Meanwhile, attention turns to the English Channel and Cen S / SE England where clusters of elevated showers/thunderstorms could drift northwards, perhaps eventually into SE East Anglia - associated with PV lobes rounding the base of the Biscay low and ejecting northwards. "
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by Eagle Eye
Tower just went up in 5 minutes, cumulus/cumulus congestus, don't be surprised if as soon as the sun appears in your location a Storm pops up, 1500 J/KG of CAPE possible in areas I've heard but cannot confirm, volatile atmosphere, currently stopped by the cloud but once that clears the moisture and some shearing should combine a bit better than yesterday, could be almost double what was seen yesterday in areas, decent lapse-rates (relative to yesterday, still poor however) as well so Storms looking more likely than yesterday easily. Surface Based so higher chance of CG lightning as well (I think, I'm probably wrong).