Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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1 minute ago, PiscesStar said:
Isn't it later today once the sun has got going the storms are forecast and especially tomorrow as the heat becomes confined to the SE
Yes, could be some elevated stuff this morning and tomorrow night as well but the daytime stuff is more likely to survive, will of course be hit and miss but you'd probably be quite unlucky to miss them all.
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There's a something in the channel at the moment and it looks headed for part of Kent/Sussex maybe
Told you all I would bring the Storms back with me
Will do my outlook in a few minutes or so
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Woke up to a big elevated cloud blanket and thought the Storms won't going to happen this morning but oh well and realised there was a key word in there, elevated, I know I'll probably have to go outside and blow it here but fingers crossed.
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Early to mid Wednesday morning on the UKV
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22 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Much more like it!! And the storms are right where the models suggested (see my earlier post).
14.45:
UKV and ECM under developing them today, giving me a boost of hope for tomorrow and Wednesday that the ICON probably being the best model performing today because that is showing the best outcome for most of us for Tuesday and Wednesday.
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5 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:
Think both will be days of checking how far North troughs are getting as well as radar watching,back in the UK in a few hours and with my luck this year, hopefully I'll bring the Storms with me.
ECM isn't great at the moment but I have noticed that it does seem to be dropping off being the best model now thunderstorm wise, interested to see which one gets it correct here and whether I may switch allegiance, at least for the time being, to the ICON which is being unnaturally excited about this possible event, which is usually a good sign from a historical standpoint especially for Wednesday.
Good news about the early morning potential Storm on Wednesday,I'll be on a sleepover st that time so the chances that I'm still awake will probably be quite high.
Icon performing the best for today so far, potentially good signs.
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On my flight back, literally everywhere seemed to have better Storms than us most days.
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The sight that greeted me entering the UK.
Anyway, something out and about from what I could see in the air but not too much
Got a load more over France and areas such as Slovenia
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11 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Morning Eagle Eye. I hope you had a great holiday - some nice pics you posted.
Yes, seems to be what UKV is suggesting. But going by the ECM hi-res and lesser extent GFS they are still suggesting more showers around on Tues (than today), with the exception of Kent which this morning's run suggests misses out completely.
Tues 18.00:
As for Weds, let's hope ECM is wrong as it's not as optimistic as your prognosis and never has the thundery precipitation associated with a low over France moving further north than a line approx M4/London. OK for the southern half of the Region, but no good for the northern half.
Weds 09.00:
Weds 18.00:
Think both will be days of checking how far North troughs are getting as well as radar watching,back in the UK in a few hours and with my luck this year, hopefully I'll bring the Storms with me.
ECM isn't great at the moment but I have noticed that it does seem to be dropping off being the best model now thunderstorm wise, interested to see which one gets it correct here and whether I may switch allegiance, at least for the time being, to the ICON which is being unnaturally excited about this possible event, which is usually a good sign from a historical standpoint especially for Wednesday.
Good news about the early morning potential Storm on Wednesday,I'll be on a sleepover st that time so the chances that I'm still awake will probably be quite high.
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@Blessed WeatherTuesday looking more and more hit and miss on the latest runs unfortunately, same goes for today but Wednesday has a second replacement of air, this time from the more naturally energetic with more moisture France and what that does is give pretty much the whole Region a proper Storm by the looks of it for a time at least.
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My outlook for today
I'll just highlight our region for now
Pulse-Storms are possible in a low-sheared, moderate CAPE environment. Shear and CAPE aren't the best gauges for determining lightning frequency but they would normally suggest relatively infrequent lightning but I would think that relatively frequent lightning because the SRW to upshear ratio is close enough to 1:1 that, at least for a time, these Storms could be quite mesocyclonic and mesocylonic Storms typically have more frequent lightning than non-mesocylonic Storms.
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Could get a taste of these over the rest of the week, even Friday might offer us something now.
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5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
You've lost me
Just for the rest of the people here, it might be helpful to explain what "Storm-Relative Wind", "Streamwise Vorticity" and "Net Vorticity Tilting" is
I lost myself half way through writing that so not all of it will be correct probably haha and maths isn't my strongest suit hence why I avoided it.
Anyway
Storm-relative Wind is best described as:
"The wind “felt” by the storm is called the storm relative wind. An analogy is driving a car 50 miles per hour into a 20 mile per hour wind. The wind sensed by the car is a 70 mile per hour wind. A storm moving into the wind field will result in an addition of the storm motion to the wind interacting with the storm. A storm can move in a different direction as compared to the low level wind when directional shear with height causes the storm to be influenced by the overall wind direction interacting with the storm. For example, winds from 700 to 300 may be strong from the west. While the wind at the surface may be strong from the southeast, the storm motion will be heavily influenced by the west winds aloft."
Streamwise Vorticity:
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the amount of horizontal vorticity that is parallel to storm inflow. Storm inflow is the velocity of the low- evel wind moving toward a thunderstorm. Helicity is the amount of streamwise vorticity that is available to be ingested by a thunderstorm. Helicity is a great chart to use to assess horizontal vorticity and the threat for rotating thunderstorms."
Net Vorticity Tilting:
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A vortex in a uniform flow field will not tilt, it will stay as it is aligned and move along with the flow. However, if there is a gradient in the velocity field, this can cause a vorte"
So essentially it's how far it's tilted as far as I'm aware.
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Here we go then
Would like to quickly mention what I'll be using in the future to determine Supercellular possibility.
For idealised mesocylone strength, a rare event here, then the Storm-Relative Wind coupled with stream wise vorticity would be equal with the change in distance along the direction of the increase of speed from outside the updraft core to the core itself which theoretically means that with a small SRW it could be counteracted and still become a Supercell if the updraft remained relatively stationary.
If the max updraft speed is equal to or bigger than the SRW then that is a big component in deciding whether tilting happens as well. So a strong updraft does help streamline vorticity tilting which in turn hands itself to helping to create perfect conditions for Supercells.
Anyway, back to the outlook.
Monday
It's looking like it'll be a mainly EA part of the Region event with capping mainly over the Kent part of the Region and so the transfer of most of the moisture comes to that part of the Region and most models seem to be showing this although the capping might be broken over Kent on models such as AROME but AROME tends to overestimate CAPE values.
Tuesday is a more Region wide affair and is probably going to be the main day with the highest Moisture, low capping, highest organisation due to a slight increase in shearing I would suspect and with decent energy I think that with a strong updraft (the SRW may be quite high, I get that feeling with organisation looking like its sort of squally at times) a Supercell may not be ruled out.
Wednesday is quite far away to tell but looks to have quite a lot of moisture left around ao the potential is there.
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Let's talk Supercells because they rarely happen in the UK so when there is the potential that one has happened its quite a big event, normally the whole of twitter is onto it in a flash to disprove or prove it.
So let's talk facts (that I have just learnt so may not be facts).
First of all
For idealised mesocylone strength, a rare event here, then the Storm-Relative Wind coupled with stream wise vorticity would be equal with the change in distance along the direction of the increase of speed from outside the updraft core to the core itself which theoretically means that with a small SRW it could be counteracted and still become a Supercell if the updraft remained relatively stationary.
If the max updraft speed is equal to or bigger than the SRW then that is a big component in deciding whether tilting happens as well. So a strong updraft does help streamline vorticity tilting which in turn hands itself to helping to create perfect conditions for Supercells.
Earlier in Scotland, the possibility that one of the Storms was a Supercell was mentioned,I had a brief look at it but never really went in depth.
Upshear is the change of shear upwards and so would be associated with inflowing updraft which is what we want here so from the cloud layer 150:211 is decent enough for a slight right turn in terms of when the Storm is strengthening as usually happens but more importantly,it suggests the net vorticity tilting was very close to 1:1. So a persistent mesocylone was quite likely and based off pictures of the event I would suggest this was probably a mesocylone but to confirm it we would need a time-lapse to know that he distance between the outside and the core of the updraft and the streamwise vorticity also worked together well.
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5 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:
Some very intense looking storms around the Edinburgh area. The one furthest SE has a distinct supercellular return to it, and moving away to the right…
Given how strong the SRW on the GFS soundings for the rough area were and looking at the way in which Supercells acquite their rotation then the ratio at which this is, would, in my opinion, suggest that you are correct here.
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1 minute ago, LeeKay/ said:
I read well thanks.
The weather can be dangerous, never and dont 'joke' about it. Maybe Estofex will warrent a level 1 Monday or Tuesday
Most good jokes (I know they change by person but I'm sure you know what I mean) are about dangerous or bad things doesn't make them bad. I know the weather can be dangerous but I'm sure every other person on this site do, any guests on this site will likely know enough about the weather to realise its dangerous and the people that don't are usually the type of people that won't change their mind. Anyway, who's going to take the comment of a 15 year old talking about some random website -that only weather people and people who really need/want information about thunderstorms- that seriously.
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1 minute ago, LeeKay/ said:
Did you see every warning on the archive (if so that was quick) !
No Snard comments, just a view upon the situation in regards to estofex.
No I didn't see every one on that archive but anyway, I feel like you haven't been reading my posts because I have said that I love ESTOFEX, I was pretty much making a joke I just didn't add the laughing bit in because I thought enough people would get it and it wasn't even my view anyway it was just my view which quickly changed once I thought about it.
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Just now, LeeKay/ said:
And found what?
Please tell me more? No extreme warnings for the UK?
That's not what I meant when I made my first post though, it wasn't the main part of the post and it was meant to be a half joke anyway.
And can you please stop the backhanded snide comments, I have anger issues and I've found that to be one of my triggers, even if you dont mean them, it would be a help to me because I don't want to lose being able to be on this forum just because I swore when I was angry.
Anyway, this is derailing the thread, back to the Storms...
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UKV is brilliant on Monday
Nevermind, I'm pretty sure the golden rule is, if its good for you it's the best model in the world, if it isn't then it's the worst
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12 minutes ago, LeeKay/ said:
Did you see the archive?
I've already seen the archive before
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17 minutes ago, LeeKay/ said:Not being rude or nothing, you are young into this are you not? The storms that have come and gone in the past 30 years i have seen, have been amazing, im 47 now
So shouting about estofex (Yes they do this for no pay) level's is kind of new to you? (did you view the archive? is so that was fast!)
Yes I am young in this which is why I tend to agree with what people had to say about ESTOFEX in the past because I have no reason to believe not to and its a running 'joke' as it were that they only cared about continental Europe so I just assumed they did because I never really saw them give many warnings for the UK except for a couple times and that was mainly for wind events and squall lines.
Yes I am new to this but I'm not shouting about ESTOFEX in what I believe but what I've heard time and time again (sometimes on this forum to note) about them, personally, I love them and they're my go to for when Europen gets Storms but because I haven't been here (as in here and looking at their warnings) when there's been a big Storm event , I haven't really seen them do too much for the UK but whenever there's a Storm event with similar properties over France and Germany it does seem that they pay extra attention to them and that's okay with me.
I know they have issued a lot before but I haven't seen many of them and sometimes when I think one is warranted because there's a potential hail event possible they haven't given anything but then again, sometimes they have when I don't think one is warranted.
I think this just proves I'm wrong most of the time (although my own European forecasting has actually had success I go to EDTOFEX to have a look at the areas and the size of the event then I look at the models to try and get as exact details as I can it makes me look good when I'm not ha ha).
Anyway, that's all for now because I've got to go and have a shower.
Quick add on
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1 minute ago, LeeKay/ said:
Yes, hence no updates. Oscar still has his forecast site running.
Over the past years, plenty of level 1 or 2 or even 3 gave out on estofex for the uk
Convective Weather Maps by Lightning Wizard
WWW.LIGHTNINGWIZARD.COMI suppose
I would think that they would issue one for this event with such dry ground, flooding is a potential issue but they haven't issued one yet so I was just guessing without actually looking into it.
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12 minutes ago, LeeKay/ said:
Ill beg to differ! Take a look at the archive it goes back to the year 2002, it may take you a few hours to do.
Yes but it does need to be significant for then to issue one here, I think, probably just selective memory.
Anyway, they might issue one tomorrow, Tuesday or Wednesday they do like to issue them on the day when the models are better especially when they're lower end events such as this one.
4 minutes ago, AnvilCrawlers said:Is it not run by volunteers ? Maybe there is no one available to do a forecast.
They did one yesterday but I did notice they went a week without issuing one where there was a lot of events so I suppose so...
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
I've gone for an enhanced risk over most of our region although a moderate for areas around London and most of EA because of the potential for two rounds of Storms highlighted by the UKV, a keen area of interest on the ECM and in the North of the moderate, the ICON D2 gives that region plenty of Storms whilst to the south it does keep that Stormless I decided to extend it south just in case. It also looks to be the area of highest shearing which as shearing increases by nighttime, should mean that the highest organisation as well as the fact that wind convergence has been spotted by the UKV and all models under developed the convergence yesterday, suggesting that that area could get some quite strong convergence, might be another area of convergence in our region that sets up but hard to tell where for now so kept it at enhanced risk. All in all, scattered thunderstorms possible today for most areas, highest coverage and organisation likely over the moderate area, doesn't necessarily mean highest lightning frequency is over that area though. Lightning frequency looks to be roughly the same in most places with the SRW to Change in updraft from outside to inside the core ratio being very similar across the whole area.
Looking at the isobars and those should be fine, just a case of what's currently over Kent pushing further North of time, shouldn't be many worries there.
And for those who want some luck, don't worry, I asked my ginger friend to cross herself, after all she seems to be Storm chasing by accident today by going on a train to London and then will stay in London till the Storms are finished, come back here and might help the SE get further needed rain from the possible overnight Storms.