Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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5 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Can already see distant anvil flashes from here, mental given how far away we are.
Is it me or do I feel like a vibrant lightning display is going to happen from this Storm.
Had a little look on Meteologix and most of the lightning shown had a lot of energy to it in terms of its Amp's whereas previous events have had this amount of energy as a one off, distant lightning may actually be able to be captured for once for me. Wonder what is causing it to be so energetic compared to similar events?
Quick look on the UKV and it seems to have something that looks oddly like a trailing stratiform region but those tend to form in different environments, I'm hoping it is correct here and that one does form because I don't think I've ever properly experienced one (I usually learn from experience so may be well off the mark here).
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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Me and another chaser are situated in Seaford, East Sussex at the moment.
Wish I could come with you, I might not get anything here other than maybe something for 10 minutes based off model runs but it's been the luckiest year of my life so far and today feels like it might be one of those days, my radio lost signal which for some reason it likes doing when a Storm is coming even if the Storm won't hit for another 10 hours.
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I'm going to suggest something.
Come back at half 1 and look at the radar and lightning then, I think that's when things will begin to make sense, keep the window open just in case but save your battery if you can't charge anything and do something else till then. Once that happens then make a decision on what to do based off what the radar and lightning detectors say.
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1 minute ago, Mapantz said:
Interesting that it seems to be mostly CG
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I think things will become clearer in a bit as Storms begin clumping together and we get an idea of what is happening and the direction its all moving in.
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1 minute ago, Southern Storm said:
Just arrived at southbourne clifftop, I've seen two bolts out to sea, nothing showing on lightning maps though
Just heard a rumble!
Was wondering how much might be missed tonight because all the lightning detectors seem to be showing different things.
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Think the best I might see here will be in the distance but will once again have to ask @Ben Sainsburyabout his thoughts because I fear I may be too far east for once for a direct hit though I think i may get something close ish.
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5 minutes ago, TN9 said:
Well give it a couple of years get your licence get a fully equipped chase car..but like Kent County Councils snow ploughs your be parked up most of the year unlike the states ...electricmumma ..if the storm doesn't come to me then ..I listen to people on here who have had one ..but there nothing better I agree than a storm over your own head:-).. I've got back end if something going over now from sw to ne
You're in with a better chance than me tonight but most are in with a decent shout, good luck to everyone.
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4 minutes ago, Electricmumma said:
Hopefully it’ll go bang tonight as predicted! You should come chasing!
I wish I could come chasing,my gf was up for it as well but it's at night and I'm only 15 so I'll have to stay put where I am
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No talk about the latest UKV run?
Anyway, as long as the UKV keeps looking fantastic, I'll be waiting for the Storms all night and realistically I could get two Storms and might even see lightning in the distance for most of the night once it gets past midnight if the UKV is correct.
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3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
The usual caveat comes with the MCS.. the main electrical activity will be on the eastern flank of it, assuming it pans out like that.
Is it possible that we just don't have enough MCS's and rarely get a trailing stratiform region, instead most of the time get a leading stratiform region if we get one at all or is it an actual thing with MCS's in which case I'm interested to learn why so I can apply it in the future.
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UKV 03Z racing out of the blocks with what looks to be either a faltering MCS but by how quickly it moves I don't think that's an option. The only other option is a fast moving squall line, moving faster than the mean flow, what this does is create a Trailing Stratiform Region where the most erratic lightning is, its shown by the trailing bit of uniform low to moderate precipitation behind the initial squall line.
Convective Weather's take on this
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Thought I'd do a deep dive into the potential for Storms tomorrow night because I think the models might be underpaying it, with the added August heat and the non dry air, dewpoint should be conductive for something should energy become available within our region. Won't go into massive scientific depth because I realise some people will just want it straight up so here goes...
There does seem to be decent potential for some relatively Storm conductive conditions tomorrow night that may being some flash flooding risk because of the parched ground although I do think that the organisation suggests that we may see a messy squally setup that may become thundery rain or may become a huge Storm and its difficult to tell which way it'll go.
UKV
precipitation seems fairly organised but the stuff below it makes me think that it'll be quite messy as we've seen before but just because we've seen too much organisation before we've also seen situations like this turn out near perfect.
Some wind convergence although difficult to spot and I don't think it'll be the main contributing factor it may just help with the western extent of the Storms because if you look closely its around London area (I think) and slightly further south. I think that may help with backbuilding and prolonging the Storm in areas.
May be quite gusty at times as well but I shouldn't think severe wind gusts unless something changes.
CAPE could be pretty low although I do think the ECM is underdoing it a bit here and the shearing should make up for that,I keep saying that Low CAPE, High Shearing events are better than High CAPE, High Shearing events and that's mainly because there's a difference between very organised convection and disorganised convection. The High CAPE, High Shearing seems to create disorganisation and too much Convection which just means the Storms will fade away very quickly with no room to grow. Whereas Low CAPE, High Shearing is sort of in the goldilocks zone of Storms and with good lapse-rates are often a decent height based off previous events.
Lapse-rates look good enough so they shouldn't bee too much of a problem although you can see the less than helpful -7's are close by so we need to be careful with those.
ECM lightning density.
Lots of PWat in the atmosphere so that would suggest a lot of rain could fall from these potential Storms.
ICON D2 goes pretty widespread (only 2 snapshots but most areas at least get part of a Storm over Kent and some areas further North as well)
Rotating Updrafts are possible but a low risk so I don't think too much of the possibility for a Supercell although updrafts do suggest some hail is possible in areas.
Water vapour saturation suggests mot of the moisture int he air should be taken up in the end.
Most weather models are suggesting some form of a band of rain/Storms so with at least some CAPE I would think that lightning should be possible in almost all scenarios shown although in varying frequencies.
Temperature and humidity wise and a strong humidity which keeps its strength looking up at different heights and so I think dewpoints should be quite high, maybe some Surface Based Storms mixed in with mostly elevated Storms I would think, potentially becoming increasingly Surface Based by mid morning.
Air should be relatively uncapped as well but still something in place.
Theta-W is quite high actually as well so as long as all factors come together I'm relatively confident of something happening but it could all become a Kent Clipper by tomorrow's weather model runs.
The 18Z UKV backing up what I said here with a squally type organisation (not sure I directly said it but I meant to say it when talking about Low CAPE, High Shear events). Here's hoping for a trailing stratiform region as well because that's where the most erratic lightning happens.
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12 minutes ago, Supacell said:
ICON also showing storms for Kent for Thursday early morning
Loving the ICON, very rarely shows anything Storm wise (not exactly sure why, maybe its purpose is to under estimae dewpoints)but this year it does seem to be doing quite well and showing more Storms, maybe those who run it changed the equations put into it.
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@Ben Sainsburysorry to bother you but what are the chances of seeing anything in Ashford because I imagine a Kent Clipper would only be distant there and trying to work out whether I should tell her to bother to look outside at all? Suppose I should wait closer to the time but would want a more professional stance on what to do.
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They'd better be a Storm sometime soon so me and my girlfriend can go and chase it
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10 hours ago, TN9 said:
Oh mate ..how about your red head girl? cor you walking a tight rope there ,girls ain't like storms ,you know where its going to come from with a storm ,watch your back on the bus
,if girls were models (excuse the pun ) and blokes was the weather they would know what was going to happen before the weather knew ...anyway back to my moan
That's why I told her before she found out and got annoyed or something not that she's the type to get annoyed in the first place but you never know people can change. We never were dating in the first place, she never knew that I had a crush on her for about 8 months because I kept it hidden in plain site by joking and 'pretending' that I did and now it seems to have faded away because you realise that you'd much rather have her happy with someone else than unhappy with you and so you just stay friends with them because they're happy with being friends. Although, one of her mutual friends did message me asking about her reaction so maybe he knows something I don't. Ruby (my girlfriend for future reference) and I share so many things that we like its amazing to think that she was my first proper crush nearly 2 years ago then I tried to get her number off her cousin who was and still is my friend but he said no so I went 2 years without seeing her. Then, I met her again on Wednesday and I'm sorry to my friend but we spent most of the day together when at his house,playing Monopoly, being silly, pretending a light was one of those dentists lights (she's 16 and I'm 15 but we both found it funny
). The fact that I didn't have to chase her and that we both just immediately clicked was a surreal feeling and one that I don't think I'll get with anyone else ever again. She's so forgiving as well, I think we both realise that mistakes can be made over the weekend and that's why we haven't had any arguments so far,theh will happen of course but she's so polite and I would say I am as well we would probably settle it over a game of monopoly. I accidentally sent her to the wrong ground when she wanted to watch me play cricket and yet after waiting aan hour for me to arrive she just laughed it off. I don't think I've ever seen her get angry with anyone, she's got 'annoyed' with someone before but that's because he's 4 and it was to get him up to his room because he was hitting her brother and even after she explained that it was wrong and everything else you do she did get 'annoyed' with him but it was for 5 minutes and it's still calm relative to everybody else.
I forgot to mention how brave she is to not only get into a relationship after her parents have broken up but also to put on a brave face in front of her brother who is engaged and she is so kind to him, I just hope his engagement works out.
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My girlfriend
I've gotten myself a Storm Chasing girlfriend ❤
"I think we're on a winner here Trig"
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Ridiculous amount of rain earlier helping my friends garden and it turns out that his cousin has a crush on me when I have a crush on her so guess who's got a girlfriend now.
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My verification from yesterday
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- Popular Post
A Storm is coming.
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Storm has arrived here, torrential rain streaming down the road as well.
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Good signs here.
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Tower just went up in 5 minutes, cumulus/cumulus congestus, don't be surprised if as soon as the sun appears in your location a Storm pops up, 1500 J/KG of CAPE possible in areas I've heard but cannot confirm, volatile atmosphere, currently stopped by the cloud but once that clears the moisture and some shearing should combine a bit better than yesterday, could be almost double what was seen yesterday in areas, decent lapse-rates (relative to yesterday, still poor however) as well so Storms looking more likely than yesterday easily. Surface Based so higher chance of CG lightning as well (I think, I'm probably wrong)
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Storms and Convective discussion - 1st August 2022 onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Even though we can't Storm Chase yet doesn't mean me and my gf (I'll use her name in the future, Ruby)l can't virtual Storm chase, just hope she isn't staying awake for nothing, would be a cruel introduction into the world of busts.