Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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Latest UKV run looks pretty Stormy with an upgrade for Monday and I would argue an upgrade for Tuesday as well, still difficult to tell what's going on, will do my first initial forecast for Monday afternoon through to Tuesday/Wednesday either later today or early tomorrow as well as my initial outlooks for those days as well.
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The lows gone so far West that Monday isn't looking to be that big anymore with mostly dry air still in place but all its doing is delaying it till Tuesday which I think will end up being thr big day here. Do also have a look at Ben Sainsbury's comments whenever they come up on the Storms thread because he seems to think there might be some elevated Storms somewhere on one or two of the nights and I would tend to agree with him.
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Sorry, keep taking the Storms with me,under a level 2 ESTOFEX warning today here in Corfu, good news is, I'm coming back on Monday and will hopefully bring the Storms with me
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Lightning from last nights Storm here to get you in 'the mood' once again..
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29 minutes ago, Mesoscale said:Undercover thunderstorm filming, your wife was probably like 'we are trying to have a nice dinner on holiday'.
I'm 15 luckily
In the meanwhile
Enjoying the Storm
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Sorry lads, I've taken the Storms with me to Corfu
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23 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
BBC News weather forecast now starting to cover the thundery breakdown next week. Here's two graphics of interest from the national news (London with a storm symbol), but it was disappointing to hear the local Look East weather presenter say the thunderstorms on Monday/Tuesday "won't be as widespread as many of us would like".
Pulse Storms in a low-sheared environment are never going to get that organised just hope that any organisation is over our region.
In the meanwhile here's some Storms from today in Corfu to get you all in 'the mood'.
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34 minutes ago, seb said:
You could not make it up. The rain and storm shield for the worst drought areas remains in full force.
I'd argue that off previous events, NOT being in the warning is quite encouraging lol.
Anyway, I imagine they'll issue one here for Tuesday and might extend it to here on Monday.
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39 minutes ago, Dangerous55019 said:
Morning o’fellow storm starved folk of Netweather, I see that the U.K. Meto has just issued a thunderstorm warning for Monday! 🌩⛈
Obviously it’s a long way off, but it’s an encouraging start.
I'm not in it apparently (when I land back at Gatwick anyway) so thats a nailed on Storm for me then
2 minutes ago, minus10 said:Certainly not encouraging for the south east ...no warning as usual...
I'd argue that's quite encouraging based off previous events
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Just going to mention that Monday and Tuesday look best for a Storm for the SE and East Anglia, not nailed on but with most of the dry air clearing I would think that pulse-type thunderstorms are quite likely with some organisation of the Storms. Will do an outlook closer to time probably. Sunday looks mainly reserved for the W and parts of the North as well as Scotland.
Monday
Tuesday
Roughly the time when I'm landing in the UK at Gatwick on Monday.
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1 hour ago, ResonantChannelThunder said:
^ Nice to see there should at least be more energy to play with than the 'breakdown' in July brought.
From the model thread, it would seem there's a trend for the low early next week to sink towards Biscay, which could potentially make for an interesting week. Early stages still, but worth keeping an eye on.
Come back from Corfu on Monday as well (night be a bumpy ride around Mid day landing at Gatwick)
In the meanwhile enjoying the planes,blue skies (capped atmosphere today, although that didn't stop the other Storms even in a dry area) and views on my trip and hoping for some Storms when I come back.
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2 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
With regard rainfall next week, the not so good news is that the position of an area of Low Pressure originally forecast to be near the NW coast of France by next Weds 17th has trended further west over the last 36 hours, with the consequence that rather than a chance of rainfall for our Region moving up from the south, we are more likely to remain hot and dry. The ECM 0z forecast for Weds 17th (8th and 10th runs) illustrate this:
0z in 8th:
0z on 10th:
I would argue that it has put more energy on the western side of the low due to the heat wall to the west of it, not good news for frontal rainfall but as long as the air doesn't remain too dry then the added energy of the western side compared to the eastern side will push it closer to that heat wall even more (may be already modelled here hard to tell). That may have a better impact regarding Storm coverage from the potential breakdown from Monday through to Wednesday because the extra push will begin rotating the low and such as how an axle works it takes up all the moisture and energy naturally residing in the area around the Bay of Biscay and surrounding areas and push it NNW'wards. Due to the plume however, it will likely pull energy away from that flow resulting in a split shown on a lot of Models where the SW and Wales will likely get some energy but the SE and EA may get some as well. This is the main factor in determining Storms for that potential breakdown, that split of energy and where it happens is what determins where and who gets the energy. So right now, the low is in a fine position regarding Storm rainfall and for us to avoid any at all would require significant further west corrections, East corrections will just end up in frontal rain and some Storms.
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There comes a point where even Corfu is Stormier than the UK, not meant to be a 'Storm chasing holiday' but it's ended up being one.
A Stormy 9 or so days so far in Corfu
Vs the average 'Very Stormy month' in the UK, especially the Midlands
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16 hours ago, The Tall Weatherman said:
Monday based on some models is looking very promising across southern and central Britain. The NMM is showing 1000 cape quite widely as daytime heating gets going, also it does look like the cap won’t struggle. It’s early days but I just want to put out hope to the storm strarved people in the south.
The day and roughly the timing I land back in the UK, plus gotten hour and a half drive home (not driving obviously) from London to Kent that may be in the perfect area for a Storm.
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I would suggest that Monday has a higher chance of a more significant amount of rain for areas than Sunday, there are a lot of potential factors involved with both days but Monday involves a much more substantial clearing of dry air than Sunday's with similar energy in the atmosphere and potentially more moisture within the atmosphere as well as more Latent heat release at the surface suggesting that what does form on those days will likely be more widespread and so a better chance of showers/Storms for an area.
Monday
Clearing of the Capping previously in place (mostly).
Moisture in the atmosphere, although not much within the Kent region once again
Good lapse-rates
Vs Sunday
A very dry atmosphere, some moisture does bring potential for some showers though.
Alright lapse-rates
There is a lot of mess though with each model seemingly having a different way to do this, we'll have to wait for now as to what happens but I would suggest that Monday or probably going to be the day of any substantial rain based off model runs at the moment.
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In Corfu and have now heard thunder in Corfu where the Storms aren't supposed to move away from Albania, Storms like to go anywhere but the UK atm.
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Not much potential on the horizon for the amount of rain that is needed, that type of crosswise vorticity that is consistently being shown over out region is good for the spreading of heat at lower levels but not the translation of moisture vertically nor that much horizontally either. It suggests that a pattern in which Storms were to occur would need significant lifting of air by an outside force, such as a mountain and even that would struggle to push moisture upwards. This is why there is persistent dry air that would struggle to be lifted even in the most buoyant of systems. I would suggest that we'll struggle to get much rain for quite a while still with a pattern like this.
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Just had to upload the sunset here.
Would love to see this at home
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A Stormier feeling in a couple days in sunny dry air Greece than most days in humid air UK.
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Having been in Florida just once, the Storms are amazing over there and you get that classic Stormy feeling before them as well.
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Nevermind, airport has WiFi so I can upload my weather pictures that I took on the flight.
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Off on my holiday today, see you all in roughly 2 weeks time.
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Going away Monday morning so just a quick post about what I think the future has in store for us.
Cut off low over the North Atlantic breaks through weak high and joins low stalled around Iceland and slowly pulls it further East, away from blocking any 'warmer' developments and allowing more high influence.
But that's not just it, there is a lot more than that. For example, the air is very dry, not that much warmer than now, doesn't seem to be the prospect of rain from that nearby trough and why is that?
To talk about that, we have to look at the origin of this air. Air drawn up from the deep south of the USA, currently experiencing a significantly warm period as well as dry, similar to us here. Doesn't necessarily show why it's not that warm though.
That's where relative vorticity comes in, all that blue is anti-cyclonic motion, relative to the velocity of the air, the heat tends towards the radius which is why Ireland get's the bulk of the heat here (although naturally cooler, with London's dynamics it would be hotter than shown), although the air is slow to reach because it's moving away from the motion and therefore will also lose some of it's heat that way.
So, all in all, I see no reason for this to change significantly, unless that positive relative vorticity up from France can move North to us, I think the temperature will stay around 25 Degrees Celsius for a lot of that time, past a week and a bit, I suppose that could change but I wouldn't think anything too dramatic unless a trough pops up all of a sudden.As for the rain on Sunday, 50/50 for that one, I don't have enough time to explore it fully but I would lean towards some rainfall from that for our region but maybe not all of it, might not be any at all, a real mix in the models at the moment, so it's hard to tell.
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33 minutes ago, seb said:
Drizzle for 5 minutes here lol. Showers coming in from the West, vanishing on the radar about 10 miles West from here...
Relatively heavy rain for about 30 seconds here nothing else from then on.
Saying that, more rain now.
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted
Latest UKV similar just slightly less amount of Storms, although, noticed that lot roughly around the Le Havre area, that's headed straight for us and we've got a lot more moisture in our air than over France so I would suggest that it would grow as it comes closer to here, 15Z run which goes out further will be what I'll do my risk evaluation on probably.