Eagle Eye
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Posts posted by Eagle Eye
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RAIN!
Don't think I've been so happy to see rain falling here when it's not a Storm.
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More from Tuesday's thunderstorm.
Some photos that I managed to get off my camera that I haven't shared here before from June.
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Some videos from Tuesday that I have found off my camera, I need to do more editing however.
And here's some photos from other days off my camera.
Normal and then slightly edited video of one of the lightning from (I think) June 19th's Storm.-
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17 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:
Nah. We'll bowl them out for 200 runs!
The way we're bowling, 120!
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1 hour ago, Ed Stone said:
Crikey mate, that's funny! Any chance of better light tonight at Edgbaston?
Going to rain there tomorrow except for maybe the afternoon by the looks of it, really need to get those wickets quickly if Kent can get their play in for a bit tomorrow.
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Possibility for some Storms across Kent and maybe East Anglia tomorrow.
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1 hour ago, seb said:
Nice photos! And yes, it was a great display
No rain though. Did you get much over in Woodchurch?
Very minimal rain here, really hope we get some steady frontal rain sometime soon.
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Last night, quite a few people wrote the Storms off after 6pm, even I thought they would only be infrequent lightning but perhaps I should have been more trustworthy about what I said on Monday because it seemed to go down pretty much as I expected then, once again, happy with that forecast.
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A load of slow-motion videos as well as pictures from the Storm with some more coming from my camera later hopefully.
Timelapse wasn't as good as I had hoped though
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I've timelapsed some of it
Lots of lightning here and now raining.-
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Some more stuff around here as well as pink rain curtains.
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Decent so far, waiting to see if any lightning reveals itself.
Pink rain curtains as well
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Interesting skies, got some time-lapses to upload when my connection gets more reliable after the recent powercut/powercuts.
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22 hours ago, Eagle Eye said:
Tomorrow's potential
ECM
VS UKMO
VS AROME
VS ICON
VS EZ4
Very difficult to forecast based on normal information for Storm potential that we would want to look at, so next up it's the second best things to look at.
Shearing wise and we are likely to have some decent shearing associated possible, based on that I would say what is likely is some sort of squally winds/associated squall line quickly pushing through, hopefully with some torrential rain to apply moisture to the very dry surface at the moment.
Energy wise and a lot of differences in the amounts but apart from the UKMO, very similar areas being hit, so realistically it would then have to go onto CIN but even then, moisture was shown aloft recently and there has been a markedly plumey feel to the atmosphere so bear that in mind.
There will likely be gaps in CIN but it looks like it'll be keeping quite the lid on the atmosphere here in most models so I would suspect that most energy will be kept aloft but often that can clear the view for the possible lightning aloft. I think there is the potential for a Storm here definitely but for that I'll have to go to the soundings forecasted later on. Remember also that shearing can counteract energy if strong enough and significant buoyancy and forcing can also counteract it.
Elsewhere, looks to be some decent enough convergence moisture wise but whether it will be enough for Storm formation may remain unseen with a lot of divergence.
Vorticity wise and there looks to be a lot of forcing possibility for a squall line type of thing which is a very good thing Storm wise and might just give it that edge to keep going.
Soundings wise and just as I thought, a mainly surface capping with instability forecast about 13,000 feet aloft cloud tops looking pretty low there at instability wise, around 22,000 feet but I would think that the shearing will counteract some of that as well as the vorticity convergence causing relatively strong forcing, maybe even enough for 30,000 feet.
That's all I'm going to write for now.
Capping breaking occasionally but doesn't look like it'll be quite as electrically active as I first thought, perhaps less forcing than forecast after all I'm pretty new to that stuff so I'm not sure how it tends to change between modelling and real life.
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1 minute ago, Arch Stanton said:
Wishful thinking I reckon
Depends on how much CAPE there is over the channel, wish we could get live soundings here like the US, would be so much easier to understand, still think chance for a Storm but I think it will only be infrequent lightning based on whats currently going on.
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A significant advection of energy residing over the channel could mean that CAPE could reach 1,000 j/kg and due to high shear and forcing, a lot more than what's there at the moment. A slightly more NE movement rather than horizontally stretched advection over the central southern region at the moment which suggests better dynamics may be in play to give at least some in our region a Storm but not nailed on at all.
Soundings wise and dynamics look better than they were yesterday, suggesting that shearing mixed with CAPE should rather than could, create Storms with enough force to break through the capping and so I'll definitely be looking out later on.-
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Will talk about the Convective chances for this region in a bit but first, so apparently a fire at the local tire place caused a power outage here and its ridiculously hot in the house.
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Possibility for thunderstorms for today and tomorrow in this region.
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15 minutes ago, Blessed Weather said:
Normally I'd be looking at an advancing band of rain and lower temps out west and wishing the whole lot would 'do one' and not spoil the lovely weather over the Region. But in the current circumstances I'm thinking hurry up and get here!
Radar 12.05:
Arome suggesting ETA late evening:
Yes, late evening arrival with energy rejoining it (wrote about it yesterday on this thread and looks to be close enough, so I'm happy about that forecast).
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On 17/07/2022 at 08:53, Eagle Eye said:
Heat low is a little bit too slow compared to the models, which might slow down the temperature development today but increase the 'potential' for significant heat on Tuesday.
And just like that it seems hotter than modelled, shows that a combination of models and readings do make for an accurate forecast and why further readings are needed.
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"Day 1 Convective Outlook
VALID 06:00 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2022 - 05:59 UTC Wed 20 Jul 2022
ISSUED 06:12 UTC Tue 19 Jul 2022
ISSUED BY: Dan
An incredibly hot, dry airmass continues to cover Britain on Tuesday associated with a deep well-mixed layer generally suppressing surface-based convection. Above this mixed layer scattered elevated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the morning over SW England and into Wales and perhaps SE Ireland along a NW-SE aligned instability axis drifting gradually eastwards through the day on the forward side of an upper low over Biscay. Most model guidance suggests activity along this zone will wane by the afternoon hours, however the instability axis remains as it tracks eastwards across England through the afternoon and evening and any subtle forcing/moistening may be sufficient for additional elevated showers/thunderstorms to develop. However, confidence is rather low on exactly when and where - a blend of guidance suggests there may be an uptick in activity across SE England, East Anglia and the E Midlands during the evening hours. Meanwhile, ahead of this feature the UKV (and to a lesser extent the ECMWF) continues to flag the potential for a few scattered showers/thunderstorms over Cen N and NE England and SE Scotland during the afternoon and early evening hours, exiting to the North Sea. In the model world these have a surface-based look to them forming within the surface trough axis, but in reality their bases would be incredibly high (same level as elevated convection essentially) and given the incredibly deep hot, dry layer such surface-based convection would likely struggle for moisture. Therefore this scenario is deemed rather unlikely, with elevated convection probably the more favoured mode (if anything does indeed develop). Any strong, isolated elevated convection that does develop at any point during this forecast period poses the risk of starting a fire given potential for dry thunderstorms and tinder dry vegetation, and perhaps also some heat bursts. Thunderstorms could produce quite frequent lightning given the magnitude of instability above the EML.
Perhaps better consensus is for an active complex of thunderstorms to quickly develop over parts of northern Scotland and the Moray Firth during the late afternoon and early evening hours, on the leading edge of the approaching cold front as PVA arrives from the southwest. This may become messy given a mixture of convective and dynamic precipitation, but could be rather active for a few hours before weakening on approach to Shetland. Overnight, there may also be an increase in elevated shower/thunderstorm activity in the vicinity of the Celtic Sea and portions of Wales/SW England (perhaps W Midlands/W Country) on the northern periphery of the approaching Biscay upper low. "
That's convective Weather's take of this.
I'll do my own later if I get the time.
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1 minute ago, TN9 said:
I got a feeling there will activity but not here ,south of us ..but like your say its a hard call at the moment and like you say not because of cold water etc etc but because it stays south of us and heads north east too quick, (swept away ) but you may see lightning but very much south of us (god I hope I'm wrong )
Exactly, a difficult forecast but looks to be both south and possibly North of us in Kent, annoying but not nailed onto that yet with alright soundings in and around Kent.
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Tomorrow's potential
ECM
VS UKMO
VS AROME
VS ICON
VS EZ4
Very difficult to forecast based on normal information for Storm potential that we would want to look at, so next up it's the second best things to look at.
Shearing wise and we are likely to have some decent shearing associated possible, based on that I would say what is likely is some sort of squally winds/associated squall line quickly pushing through, hopefully with some torrential rain to apply moisture to the very dry surface at the moment.
Energy wise and a lot of differences in the amounts but apart from the UKMO, very similar areas being hit, so realistically it would then have to go onto CIN but even then, moisture was shown aloft recently and there has been a markedly plumey feel to the atmosphere so bear that in mind.
There will likely be gaps in CIN but it looks like it'll be keeping quite the lid on the atmosphere here in most models so I would suspect that most energy will be kept aloft but often that can clear the view for the possible lightning aloft. I think there is the potential for a Storm here definitely but for that I'll have to go to the soundings forecasted later on. Remember also that shearing can counteract energy if strong enough and significant buoyancy and forcing can also counteract it.
Elsewhere, looks to be some decent enough convergence moisture wise but whether it will be enough for Storm formation may remain unseen with a lot of divergence.
Vorticity wise and there looks to be a lot of forcing possibility for a squall line type of thing which is a very good thing Storm wise and might just give it that edge to keep going.
Soundings wise and just as I thought, a mainly surface capping with instability forecast about 13,000 feet aloft cloud tops looking pretty low there at instability wise, around 22,000 feet but I would think that the shearing will counteract some of that as well as the vorticity convergence causing relatively strong forcing, maybe even enough for 30,000 feet.
That's all I'm going to write for now.
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4 minutes ago, TROY said:
All this hype about this heatwave wow. Trust me this summer is nothing like the scorching summer of 76. We have a lot of broken cloud here this morning . Temp at the mo 19C. Have not had any rain overnight.
I was waiting till someone commented that, sure it was longer but it only peaked at 35.9°C.
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SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by Eagle Eye
Relatively heavy rain for about 30 seconds here nothing else from then on.
Saying that, more rain now.