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Uncertainty
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EC
Atlantic trough digging and stalling, U.K. high linking to building Ural heights.
The GEFS really started seeing this evo tonight too, a lot more amplification in evidence. The mjo signal is really quite strong and has been consistent.
I personally think its crucial we get the decent amplitude strongly into phase 7… here’s the composite to illustrate:
The strat vortex continues to look highly perturbed
For me, this February is going to define our perceptions of this winter. We’ve had two cold spells (early Dec and now) - both have somewhat flattered to deceive but they have nevertheless offered more than most years. Should February slip away, much like the last few years, the winter will be viewed as a massive forecasting bust. On the other hand, if something akin to the gfs 12z comes off and persists then it will be a successful forecast.
No pressure then models…
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26 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Edit: not engaging in this, bit of a silly comment, if you want to contest what I am saying then use logic and evidence not bullying tactics.
Kasim your views and knowledge are more than welcome here. I for one have learnt a great deal from your posts since you stated up on here. I think you give a balanced and unbiased view whereas although I do try to I am clearly in the cold crew and post far more frequently when things look good
No sugar coating from me tonight though in the extended - The eps is showing what the 46 has shown for many days. A relaxation - as I alluded to a few weeks ago - in the pattern and a strong westerly flow. This has been well advertised across all suites and you can look to the mjo in p4 for a simplistic explanation.
Here’s the p4 Nino composite - never been a good phase for me in winter.
should this happen (it really should) it is NOT the end of winter. On the contrary, the signal for blocking to reinitialise end of Jan / early Feb (assisted by downwelling waves from above - the drip on the PCH plots) and the passage of the mjo to the WP is consistent.
In the meantime, next week’s low is the big chance for many. They often go south, but at face value the models are suggesting just n of the m4 is the current sweet spot.
Finally, the 18z mean looks more wedgey ( and colder) but be careful what you wish for - as @Met4Castsays, one more big shift south and you can wave your historic snow event goodbye!
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6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:
Mean is quietly upgrading ...
Looks just like the eps NWS. In fact, the members are excellent at 192 and the the long term solution from the op e.g heights transferring to the ne is not w/o support either.
What a pub run btw, cold right out to the end…
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2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:Yep! And the reason why I normally use the regional thread. I have a lot of knowledge that I try to share on here but it’s like a school ground in here! It’s pathetic!
You seeing the same Scandi heights we spoke about? Yeah potential there mate!
Great to see a model play with it as an option. Last nights pub run had a look at scandi too.
Even earlier on in the run it moved towards the ecm solution; it’s not as simple as a bit of the ridge collapses to Europe and the spell is over. If remnant heights remain to the N and the jet stays well to the south then someone’s going to get pasted. This run is showing us how that could then translate to a much longer spell, even though the ens haven’t really been keen on the idea.
Brilliant to have your input on here Scott. It’s an open forum so people are gonna have their own views but don’t let it stop you sharing your knowledge and putting your time and rep on the idea to actually make a forecast. The more high quality posts we get on here, especially ones which offer direction on the future based on evidence - the better the experience is for everyone.
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12zs overall are the best suite yet for longevity.
To illustrate, here are some highlights:
1) Ecm produces its best op run for what seems like ages, with a boxed in GH
2) JMA brings a snowstorm to S England
3) GFS
Beautiful wedge action
4) GEM, words not required
5) EPS mean, reverses the flattening trend from the last few runs and the anomalies are very good and very reminiscent of the seasonals.
Most importantly, the following shift in the eps mean in the extended does not do it justice! It’s one of the bigger ones I’ve seen ant that range. Although the flip from mostly mild swerlies to a dipole blocked/flatter set is still clear.
12z
0z
When you look through the members, the flip to ‘longevity’ is quite remarkable.Overall, a poor night for mildies, cockle warmers and gas bills tonight! Their time will come, but this evening is one for the
crew…
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The mjo moving into P4 more strongly than expected and for longer, as well as the the bigger push of cold into the states is likely responsible for the flattening across the ecm suite today. Need to see a few more 46 runs to really lose faith. Nevertheless, no ssw and the mjo in a poor position is not ideal. Hopefully we can get a gfs 12z style couple of snowstorms in first before the relaxation. After that, plenty of evidence for the blocking to return with continued strat disruption and the mjo moving towards the WP.
The 46 has backed off once or twice in the last few weeks and quickly got back in track. But the sooner the mjo gets a move on out of p4 the better.
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Massive shift in the geps around 300 hours (17th Jan)
12z
0z
The Greenland blocking is far stronger on the 12z, on the 0z it is already being eroded and the tilt of the Atlantic low no longer pumps WAA into Greenland. On the 12z the Atlantic energy is splitting which should prop up the high.
Perhaps an even bigger shift on the 12z GEFS compared to its 6z run. The former has an incredible mean Greenland high whereas on the 6z it’s centred over the U.K.
12z
6z
Unsurprisingly, both means are significantly colder! Whilst there are still potential barriers to longevity (the gfs op goes from perfection to west based to flat real quick) the upgrades on the means are far more relevant when predicting how long our cold spell will persist for.
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4995109-
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Massive shift in the geps around 300 hours (17th Jan)
12z
0z
The Greenland blocking is far stronger on the 12z, on the 0z it is already being eroded and the tilt of the Atlantic low no longer pumps WAA into Greenland. On the 12z the Atlantic energy is splitting which should prop up the high.
Perhaps an even bigger shift on the 12z GEFS compared to its 6z run. The former has an incredible mean Greenland high whereas on the 6z it’s centred over the U.K.
12z
6z
Unsurprisingly, both means are significantly colder! Whilst there are still potential barriers to longevity (the gfs op goes from perfection to west based to flat real quick) the upgrades on the means are far more relevant when predicting how long our cold spell will persist for.
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Cansips, for January 2024, 10 months ago:
Cansips, June 2023
Cansips, today:
What a phenomenal forecast. The seasonals have absolutely smashed it. It’s easy for them in a 2019/2020 (eg mega zonal) paradigm but predicting blocking that far out is hard.
The 46 has also done pretty well after some early wobbles.
Peitao Pengs analogues have also done really well
The cfs is and always has been garbage, here’s an effort from august that it persisted with up until a few weeks ago. All this has done is throw doubt and apprehension into the mix. Fortunately, most of us were able to see past it.
So there you have it. The long awaited early 2024 blocking is upon us. Weather forecasting is hard, but if you listen to the signals, experts, telecons (EQBO, late Nino moving modoki, weak strat, mjo p1, fading iod, major +EAMT) and the models (if they show a really strong, consistent picture) then it is possible to go beyond ‘Fantasy Island’ and into the future. Read back through this thread and the winter preview thread. We called it. Great job folks.
And so it begins…
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4994008-
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Cansips, for January 2024, 10 months ago:
Cansips, June 2023
Cansips, today:
What a phenomenal forecast. The seasonals have absolutely smashed it. It’s easy for them in a 2019/2020 (eg mega zonal) paradigm but predicting blocking that far out is hard.
The 46 has also done pretty well after some early wobbles.
Peitao Pengs analogues have also done really well
The cfs is and always has been garbage, here’s an effort from august that it persisted with up until a few weeks ago. All this has done is throw doubt and apprehension into the mix. Fortunately, most of us were able to see past it.
So there you have it. The long awaited early 2024 blocking is upon us. Weather forecasting is hard, but if you listen to the signals, experts, telecons (EQBO, late Nino moving modoki, weak strat, mjo p1, fading iod, major +EAMT) and the models (if they show a really strong, consistent picture) then it is possible to go beyond ‘Fantasy Island’ and into the future. Read back through this thread and the winter preview thread. We called it. Great job folks.
And so it begins…
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6 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:Same, I can tell it's written in English but that's where my understanding stops
He says something along the lines that:
- El Niño winters favour blocking later on
- The -NAO signal could increase
- the pacific North American pattern will be positive
- The global wind oscillation phase 5 pattern is favoured meaning Renewed mountain torque (most likely in east Asia , where high pressure to the Lee of the Himalayas forces air up and around the mountains which should force more pressure on the strat later on
- The mjo is forecast to move back over the pacific later on which tends to encourage blocking
Scandi highs and a continuation of the weak strat should ensue.
I would agree and add that the ec 46 renews the Greenland blocking signal in its first look at early February
There’s every chance that with no split and the mjo in 3/4 we could see a relaxation mid / late Jan but the signs remain very positive for Jan / Feb as a whole…
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2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:
This is the big takeaway from me. That I think this will be a rapid trop response on top of rising AAM the holy grail due to the Canadian warming
The seasonals have been telling us this all along Scott. If they’re right, it’s a huge coup for long range forecasting:
That’s the JFM Cansips, from May!
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Merry Christmas to you all. Perhaps the first of hopefully many interesting ecm runs after what seems like an eternity being Scrooge. Perhaps, like Marley in the doorknob, the ridge building to the nw is the harbinger of change…
This place is going to be buzzing soon.
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1 minute ago, Andy8472 said:
Enjoy your posts Andy; it’s good to have your input. The 6z ncep suite looks a little warmer to me than the 0z. Plenty of the geps suite look like they’d go on to split. I think we will see a reversal but it’s not quite ‘in the bag’. Would like to see the GEFS move towards the other two to increase confidence before we can really make a call.
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Im not sure the 6z is bad enough for 0 posts. In fact, I’m not sure it’s even bad at all!-
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A significant phase of amplification is emerging in the eps/GEFS around day 14-15.
I expect this is linked more to tropical activity than the strat at this stage.
The mjo is now forecast to move quite strongly into phase 1.
The phase 1 January Nino composite (and I am in no way suggesting a linear relationship between phases and anomalies) is indicative of a strong N U.K. high. The unusually strong amp and the fact it is happening very soon give a bit more credence to the composite imho
Given the lag, the GEFS and eps are not to be dismissed, the eps is almost identical to last night’s run.
This is when the real internet begins…
Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99584-model-output-discussion-into-winter/?do=findComment&comment=4981853-
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A significant phase of amplification is emerging in the eps/GEFS around day 14-15.
I expect this is linked more to tropical activity than the strat at this stage.
The mjo is now forecast to move quite strongly into phase 1.
The phase 1 January Nino composite (and I am in no way suggesting a linear relationship between phases and anomalies) is indicative of a strong N U.K. high. The unusually strong amp and the fact it is happening very soon give a bit more credence to the composite imho
Given the lag, the GEFS and eps are not to be dismissed, the eps is almost identical to last night’s run.
This is when the real internet begins…
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1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
The gfs remains bullish on rotating the spv across the pole and ends up n Greenland as it’s pushed across the pole by the warming
the gefs seems to be centered Barents Sea svaalbard to Novaya Zemlya
awaiting the eps - it has been more akin to the gefs but further towards ne scandi
the gfs and ec op stand off on the speed of the warming continues. The gefs have taken a small step towards the gfs but the gap between the ops remains 4 days on that cold area in ne Siberia
interesting to see that the reversal in the strat grows at 30N and then extends northwards - currently flushing the stronger flow towards the trop as per below. The gfs ends with a tpv centred primarily across the pole.
EDIT
Eps updated
The mean at day 15 looks pretty much reversal with the outside height contour on the strat low across 90N
the model is a little ahead of the gefs in its rotational movement of the spv back towards n scandi /barents. We can see that the gefs are closer to svaalbard but as a day 15 mean it’s comparable
the gefs are not as close to a tech ssw. Eps spv is 2920 dam whilst gefs is 2880.
Are you saying the eps are showing a mean reversal Nick? That would be quite something. And am I right in saying that the the 46 is now fundamentally a separate model and won’t necessarily follow on from the eps?
Whatever the GEFS are doing on the strat isn’t stopping them producing an eye catching block in the trop mind!
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3 minutes ago, Troubleatmill said:
How is that last cluster +nao at the end!
6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:Get in!
Oof! The mean goes to around 4m/s!
@bluearmyStarting pistol indeed! Though in all fairness, I’ve been keen since May when the cansips starting hinting at it… all it has to do now is actually happen lol
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Clusters in the extended look really interesting: no +nao, lowish euro heights. No doubt there’ll be some exciting members.
Don’t think there’s any real wintery interest until at least then. But lots thereafter…
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@feb1991blizzard go through the geps members at 10hpa and tell me what you think
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The GEFS are really really keen on a major warming, look at the mean below
Lots of geps members look to go the same way, though maybe a bit slower.
we’re just a few days from knowing if we’re going to get an ssw… If we do get one, then one of the major pieces of the seasonal modelling puzzle (eg the question as to why the seasonals have been so keen on Jan-Mar blocking) will have fallen into place.
Incidentally, the same set lose the Genoa +ve height anomaly by day 11,
So interesting in both trop and strat…
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2 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:
Just need these to come more into the reliable timeframe and not at 300+ hours and we can hope from mid to late January we see the response and cold can come in, this I feel is our only way for country wide cold for the rest of this winter.
You’re probably right about the latter part; the reliability bit is true generally but it has been consistent on the ec46 that end week 2 / week 3 we might see a big disruption and now that’s coming into the view of the other two main ensembles. No full blown ssw in reliable forecast just yet either, but a significant warming looks likely with the flavour (e.g minor / major or if the latter displacement / split) still to be decided…
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Model Output Discussion - Cold spell ending - what next?
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Don’t give up hope…
Except if your hope is within the next 15 days that is
Give the above the theme of the mo update won’t change.
@Daniel*having Eric on board is positive too. Somewhere early Feb then for a big pattern change.