Scott Ingham

What’s been shown is the means are king! They have been rock solid in the face of some odd runs, shortwaves, bulges in the ops. But the closer we have got the more the ops have firmed up on what was showing 10 days ago! This cold spell has some legs to go yet! 1-0 GDSM on this years chases!

Hahahahaha that’s hilarious

Look at those ensembles between -10 and -15 around the 15th 16th I’ve not seen that on the ensembles yet! Very interesting!!!!

Remembering that surprises crop up at VERY short notice I’d advice us to use the HI res models on Saturday to corner Monday which is the first day with low enough uppers and low enough heights. Then each day going forward. Sunday for Tuesday and so on! I’ll eat my dog and I love my dog! If there isn’t a disturbance that throws up snow next week!

Just posted the same thing off the back of a glaam state that is still high this is the possibility before more amplification into Iceland and or Scandi

The wedge isn’t probably prominent enough on this run but if you look where the black arrow is pointing you can see where the residual elements of inertia have created a wedge. Run it back and forward and you’ll see the trough west of Greenland breaking up and sliding. This is what could potentially extend our spell. I’d like to see the ensembles move over the next 3 days then it’s game on! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99760-model-output-discussion-colder-but-how-cold-and-for-how-long/?do=findComment&comment=5007854

The wedge isn’t probably prominent enough on this run but if you look where the black arrow is pointing you can see where the residual elements of inertia have created a wedge. Run it back and forward and you’ll see the trough west of Greenland breaking up and sliding. This is what could potentially extend our spell. I’d like to see the ensembles move over the next 3 days then it’s game on!

The 29th - 5th chart is encouraging. Not hard to see that evolve into an Icelandic/Scandinavian high. I’m encouraged again for round 2 around this 29th date. February if anything has more potential than January in my opinion with uppers at their lowest this month to the east of us. It’s sad that I prefer a 3 week chase to a 1 week chase getting some snow weather geek alert!!!

Tbh it’s too premature to write off any snow it’s just too far out and too premature to predict mild when a lot of signals point to blocking wedges keeping the jet south. Sometimes it’s good to second guess the models if you don’t feel it fits in with the predicted atmosphere and never take them at face value until inside 96hours. We don’t need to be down beat it’s a watching scenario still for both length and level of snowcover

Yeah I remember that event and your right it’s prime example of why it’s too premature to forecast it being dry. It’s a fact the at this range snow can’t be predicted by todays science so best to get the cold in then daily check arome wrf arpege models for any disturbances

Snow can’t be forecast until 48hours before the models don’t have the resolution to pick up disturbances so to say it’s dry now is a lesson we learnt years ago in these spells. Best bet is your hi res models 48hours out

If you read Tamara’s take there are wedges that won’t be picked up until 120s. I agree the end back mild winning at day 9 but I wouldn’t put my mortgage on it if wedges send low pressure into Europe and keep us on the right side of the jet. That’s something to keep an eye on and until I see it I have to go with the ensembles atm and say I agree mild “should” be coming in 9 days time. Just watch this space….

The issue with frontal clashes is it tends to be a day of snow then mild air coming in 48 hours later. I prefer to keep the cold in and get several troughs shortwaves in a flow for a week or two. But each. To their own I guess!

Yeah and many more features will pop up for sure! We won’t know till Saturday at the earliest for Monday - Wednesday

It does look dry atm but with the low heights and warm seas in place small features have a chance of popping up within 48 hours. The same is said every cold spell 2010 was dry 144 hours out then look what happened. I’d rather the low go to the south keep hold of the cold air for longer and get disturbances.

Posted it yesterday mate. 29th of January

Deep cold bang on cue on “that day”! Boom!

my doors are locked!

Yeah that’s true and there’s no doubt there will be a period where the jet is forced north due to a fall in AAM and MJO Phases 4/5 but with some inertia left in the system if we can get wedges a little further east than Greenland we may stay on the cold side of the JET. *MAY* we have sets still working this out at this range. I suspect even if it does flatten out the very end of Jan into Feb looks ripe for High lat blocking to dominate once more anyway

One of the best posts ever made about GFS bias! It’s something that should absolutely be taken into account when the whole set up is extremely sensitive to the AAM balance!

I think the models are sneakily extremely slowly coming full circle back to the extended long cold spell we expected in last weeks models. Looking at the ensembles it’s now stretched at a push to the 21st of January for cold

Another morning another load of daft over reactions to a jaffa cakes poor GFS and then comes the ECM to tell people to relax the winter cold is coming and always has been coming! See you for the 12z

It’s a bit off topic but I’ve read some papers and the amounts of atmospheric rivers 2023 going into the start of this year has been unprecedented so I can sort of see what you are saying without having seen any solid solid evidence. It needs studying more I think

Agree that was a bit uncalled for that I had the same last night Kasim just ignore it or ignore the poster there are some childish comments sometimes on here. It’s really not on

Well the chances are it will not be that extreme!! Obviously I’m not forecasting that hahaha but it has the same ingredients! What it will be if it plays out is widespread 20cm+ in my opinion