Scott Ingham

Yea how often do you see a pattern get set, fall away for 2 or 3 days then come all the way back around to what was stated? I’m seeing Greenland heights upgrading and most importantly prolonging. The messyness for me will go. The shortwave went progged 48 hours ago around the 12th and I feel these on this run will because as it gets close and momentum is upgraded due to it not being modelled very well we’ll see the pattern become more robust further north. The reason I think this is true this time is due to short term upgrades on our uk high. It tells me it’s not picking up on +AAM very well untik we count down to the day.

Best cluster we’ve had for the 15th so far in my opinion!

It would suggest a rise in the jet stream north but as Met4 cast says it’s only 1 aspect of a momentum budget and this budget currently on forecast hasn’t dropped all that low and is forecast to rise again suggesting a possible battleground snow event period followed by what I believe and Tamara and Caracol and I think M4cast to be a rise then in pressure over scandi before another rise middle of Feb in Greenland. Anothher option is a complete relaxation of the pattern followed by another cold period in February. All in all not bad at all to see out winter! We also have a ssw potentially occurring at the end of this month which adds even more interest or complication going forward

I thought as much mate that’s why I didn’t even seem fit to ask you as your in top echelons of ability to read some charts! Yeah I have noticed that around the 20th but atm I’m not overly worried as I believe this will be a battleground period of which traditionally very low 850s wouldn’t be an ingredient anyway

That’s all very well but it also has to be said in context. He doesn’t mean poor as in it’s an end to the cold spell and a return to above average temperatures he means it’s poorer than a previous set with more runs trending milder. M4cast is an experienced member I’m sure he wouldn’t look at those ensembles and means and denote them being “poor” for cold weather as it’s the opposite. I think for newbies this is important. Thanks

Couldn’t agree more

In your opinion. Not mine

Get the Greenland high in and it’s inevitable! The colder air is earlier on other models they are playing around with timing. The pattern itself is being brought forward

Forget uppers at that range! Look what’s just happened to tomorrow uppers. It’s the bigger scale we’re looking at and it’s upgraded in the 120/144 mark. Todays been a good day

Miles better run from the EC12z slowly slowly! Catchy monkey!

ECM coming onboard! Never in doubt was it this winter period If someone gave you that ECM144 hours chart in October for the second week of January would you take it? I know I would!!

Yeah it’s the same it’s the ECMWF’s Ensemble Prediction System. This won’t happen I don’t think for at least another 48hours. Wednesday could be a crackerjack bonkers day!

Yep! North east then back to scandi is the potential track to take us to the middle of February. Potential only though…..

I really would not be calling these poor at all….. it’s normal fluctuation within a chaotic developing pattern with lots of support for a period of cold weather, if your hoping for 1963 then I’d call it poor! The daddy of all the means is the 500s that John Holmes posts and these are as good as it gets really! I struggle to see how anyone on this forum can be remotely negative currently on what’s showing on the models off the back of fantastic background signals…

Yes here we go….. Iceland first….

That’s it yeah and when the cold is in it’s all eyes on the higher res models. I’d be surprised if someone doesn’t receive a good fall of snow from this period of weather! We are just trying to work out how severe and for how long and in my opinion the background signals back a period of cold far longer than models show right now. Tamara summed it up in beautiful language why that is.

He didn’t say they were poor and they are far from poor. There were just a few more runs that went milder but the vast majority show what we’ve expected for over a week now. I really wouldn’t be worrying too much.

Unbelievable mean!

You have a chance of maybe 11 flakes tomorrow

This is the most sensible post today, if anyone is new to this game that last paragraph from Blue is really excellent advice. The eps suite btw up to now is very good! We’d take it any winter!

I’m counting them dowwwwwwn!!!

From an emotional and passion perspective yeah I agree and I’m a cold lover and love the rollercoaster just as much as you do! But from a scientific perspective and this is a science at the end of the day I’d disagree as it’s harder to maintain a calm rational head and makes it confusing for newbies us who are trying to learn the science. Plus it’s plain wrong to assume every operational run is correct it’s better to start with means and ensembles and look for any change in direction in them. All just my opinion of course! You have yours and I respect it.

Hahaha! Never a truer word said let’s come back to this in 10 days time then. Deal?

Cold 850s still find there way on the 15th. Regardless of shortwaves the atmosphere is ripe for the high to go to Greenland whether is delayed by 12-18hours or not for me the pattern is set and the next stage exciting from a snow perspective with Atlantic air hitting a big uk cold pool!

Again note heights into Scandi…. Next week will hopefully show some promise into this direction at the back end of runs if the atmosphere is following the same script that lead some of us to believe Greenland heights and cold weather would be hitting the 3rd week of Jan (or the 15th)