Scott Ingham

That’s the best cluster posted this winter and by some distance as well! Absolute classic set up for severe cold!

Yeah! No I understand that. The second bite of the amplification cycle has a much better chance due to both the tropospheric and stratospheric sections of the atmosphere over Greenland being conducive to a ridge going up and staying. Near Iceland this wasn’t the case so we’ve ended up with a modified ridge a little further south than optimal. Put simply if you look at the cross sectionals then this second bite of the cherry can be backed up by evidential physics so the chances are “higher than normal” where have you heard them words? M*T *FF*C*

Luke we were never chasing the first week in January. The best we were going to get his a high that ridges far enough north for a short lived comvective easterly

It’s always been the period after the uk high that’s of interest though. This next week was always a Uklandic High followed by retrogression really don’t get why people don’t understand this still?

This is an upgrade to what you posted yesterday. Yesterday the Greenland Heights were starting to show signs of fading but they are still going strong at the end of this run! Wonderful, wonderful mean! Please count down Mother Nature. Thank you please. Scotty

I agree with everything you have written. Human beings unfortunately all have different levels of respect for each other. The best advice I can give you is to trust and believe in yourself. Mute and block the people being disrespectful and carry on learning and being around your mates on the forum because you do have them on here.

Hahahaha that day is stealing my thunder (snow?) I’ll take losing the day for that! longevity is the word on this run!!

Don’t be silly mate. Stick to your own guns and rise above it. Lots in here value your input.

Happy me day

Scott Ingham day hahaha! I love it! But yea the broad means are still looking just fine after some mediocre model runs so far today

I’ve just started watching The Big Snow of ‘47 so I thought I’d revisit the patterns in the archives from the day it started. Look at how similar it was… A Griceland/UK Ridge..:: followed by 7 weeks of snow and ice! 2 weeks later into the season than we are now! This post is just for fun obviously!!!

It may be and we all know you can’t rely on an op run that far out. BUT……. When a run and a trend make sense due to several climate drivers and their known impacts and imprints it adds meat to the bone so to speak. This isn’t me saying this because of one run either I’ve been banging the drum on this period for the best part of 10+ days now. In December 2010 a similar wave break and high amplitude tropical cycle led the likes of GP to speak of the potential for severe weather 2 weeks before it happened. This science has become more mainstream and more people understand it in more detail. It’s allowing even non professional forecasters like myself to talk about these lead times with a little more confidence that would have been possible 15/20 years ago. I’m not saying this is certain. No meteorological science is but I can say the chances of this happening are unusually higher than normal due to the configuration of the atmosphere at that lead point. This being: - A high AAM state - A high GWO orbit - Extremely high Glaam state due to a combination of FT an aggressive EAMT and an MJO journey into MJO phase 1 into 2 at a good amplitude - A stratosphere that has a weakness around Canada and Greenland due to the earlier Canadian warming, the following stratospheric warming (that nearly split the vortex) and a split TPV through the Greenland/Icelandic area created by favourable weather patterns. The first 3 points all do one thing. They send energy polewards. They send the jet stream north (High pressure goes North. This energy often comes in waves. I.E we get a couple of shots. The first looks like it sends this energy polewards near Iceland/UK. The stratospheric set up doesn’t quite send this to the pole but far enough north to create an Easterly around the 7th to the 9th. These wave breaks tend to then move west around the globe so the next wave break is happening further west. This is what we call retrogression. Now the reason why I expected this to be way more impactful is because of the weakness of the Strat around Greenland and Canada and is the basis for me adding 7-10 days on from the 6th bit this time due to the strat weakness it allows the high in Greenland to reach right into the pole. The heat flux is showing a split in the stratosphere right through Greenland. The models have been working out how much energy and altitude each of the two wave breaks (in uk/iceland) and (Greenland) can gain and won’t be able to decipher this until inside 120hours. Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4991348

It may be and we all know you can’t rely on an op run that far out. BUT……. When a run and a trend make sense due to several climate drivers and their known impacts and imprints it adds meat to the bone so to speak. This isn’t me saying this because of one run either I’ve been banging the drum on this period for the best part of 10+ days now. In December 2010 a similar wave break and high amplitude tropical cycle led the likes of GP to speak of the potential for severe weather 2 weeks before it happened. This science has become more mainstream and more people understand it in more detail. It’s allowing even non professional forecasters like myself to talk about these lead times with a little more confidence that would have been possible 15/20 years ago. I’m not saying this is certain. No meteorological science is but I can say the chances of this happening are unusually higher than normal due to the configuration of the atmosphere at that lead point. This being: - A high AAM state - A high GWO orbit - Extremely high Glaam state due to a combination of FT an aggressive EAMT and an MJO journey into MJO phase 1 into 2 at a good amplitude - A stratosphere that has a weakness around Canada and Greenland due to the earlier Canadian warming, the following stratospheric warming (that nearly split the vortex) and a split TPV through the Greenland/Icelandic area created by favourable weather patterns. The first 3 points all do one thing. They send energy polewards. They send the jet stream north (High pressure goes North. This energy often comes in waves. I.E we get a couple of shots. The first looks like it sends this energy polewards near Iceland/UK. The stratospheric set up doesn’t quite send this to the pole but far enough north to create an Easterly around the 7th to the 9th. These wave breaks tend to then move west around the globe so the next wave break is happening further west. This is what we call retrogression. Now the reason why I expected this to be way more impactful is because of the weakness of the Strat around Greenland and Canada and is the basis for me adding 7-10 days on from the 6th bit this time due to the strat weakness it allows the high in Greenland to reach right into the pole. The heat flux is showing a split in the stratosphere right through Greenland. The models have been working out how much energy and altitude each of the two wave breaks (in uk/iceland) and (Greenland) can gain and won’t be able to decipher this until inside 120hours.

The consistency around the 15th of this month for true Greenland Heights is now something to behold and it is THIS period that can deliver significant and substantial cold and snow! Is this the 5th time I’ve mentioned this today?

Yeah I posted about this earlier. Will only take one slack enough disturbance and someone could luck out

One thing that needs to be mentioned. In the 78-120 range we have -4 to -6 upper air and several small circulations that if slack enough may provide some surprise snowfall even by the start of this weekend. Come Thursday I’m interested in what the high res models have to say

That first low is no longer tilted it looks due north and much more like the ECM. The gfs as usual taking baby steps towards the ECM

Yeah I remember I remember him saying that the 6-10 and 8-14 were practically identical so I’m assuming the 8-14 dayer is more amplified as it’s not really similar to the 6-10 dayer on them charts you showed

Them ascendant ensembles have the absolute classic v shape that you get when a model is picking up on a lengthy cold spell! And the 8-14 anom chart is the chart of the day! I’m sure @johnholmes would have some insight into this but I’m sure the 8-14 is an upgrade from the last chart and where is @mushymanrob ???

Again yeah that’s a good point!

Yes very true I’ll give you that

Look at all the snow spikes towards the end as well

Hahahaha! If it doesn’t come off I hope there’s a battlett set up as cold conditions won’t be a good look for mr Johnson downstairs! Your welcome to join me though!

What’s that date again 15 is becoming my favourite number!!

Yes I replied earlier to @Catacol about the progression to 6. If we hold onto cold weather we could see Greenland heights turn into Scandi ones at the end of Jan into February then it’s a watching brief on movement into the western pacific and a renewed uptick of AAM from the next tropical cycle. A tropical cycle starting from a much higher base state with an atmosphere reflective of us being in a mature El Niño and high phase GWO orbits We should drop any further than GWO 4 in my opinion (if we’re lucky 5) The MJO cycle I believe will only be in 2/3 before hitting cod then coming out into 6/7/8. All for the longer term so a jigsaw piecing job atm for February but more encouragement for the rest of this winter.