Scott Ingham

The icon absolutely nailed 2018 at this range. It was rock solid 144-168 while others were on and off (like they would be when so many signals and a Strat warming was in play)

Exactly! People really do need to learn to stop getting low and high over every run. The means are rock solid backed up by the met of battleground developing and like Tamara mentioned earlier after this developments to the north east really need to be watched going into Feb. All is incredibly positive atm the cold and snow is coming im almost certain it’s just how long and how much now! What a fantastic winter this is! Especially from a learning perspective!

Yep them low heights gone near Greenland. It’s like it’s 24 hours behind gfs cos gfs 0z and 06z showed these lower heights yesterday

Yea exactly this! I agree with all of this.

I liked that as well! it was posted a few days ago yeah I can’t remember by who!

I like it! Siro! It sounds menacing!

I would imagine it involves a stronger high lat block than what we currently see with models underestimating the block with a topple to Scandi end of Jan into Feb due to the Atlantic waking up from a quick progression of the MJO 3 into 6 off the back of an AAM state that hasn’t fallen a great deal and a GWO orbit still in high Nino phases leading to only a small drop in GLAAM before it begins to rise again. So Scandi then watch for the next round of amplification middle of Feb into Greenland. It’s the holy grail and so much can go wrong to change that but it’s possible just like this period of weather was possible if not likely

The route to scandi is what I’m now watching for. A scandi height build a flattening of the pattern and battleground snow is the potential next period of watch if I stick to the methods I’ve done this year. Tamara oscillating wandering high lat block

Look at all the disturbances due to the polar air over a relatively warm sea! Snow makers!

The other thing that the Alaskan ridge did was change orientation of low pressure off the seaboard and weaken heights off eastern North America. Now we have a deeper trough allowing more waa up the west coast of Greenland (like it was before)

Compared to the GFS 00z yesterday morning when people spoke about Greenland heights diminishing the model has taken a complete u turn to show what was on offer the previous 3 or 4 days. Classic of the models. Project a pattern. Drop it for 48 hours then converge on what all the means were showing. all is going just fine. Breathe people!

@ANYWEATHER Ive quoted Matt Hugo as he puts my thoughts spoken about 3 weeks ago in a much more eloquent way being dyslexic but it’s the lag impacts of the drivers spoken about by Matt. The 15th was just a guess based on my own knowledge on timings of lag. Nothing ground breaking or impressive just time spent studying gdsm products and making a call for this date 3 weeks ago that we’d see the charts chuck out a deep cold spell from this date onwards

@TEITS is correct btw. In 2010 and 2009 the ecm went on one for 48 hours before quickly coming back to its 240 ideas at 120 and the rest is history! Just to add this latest gfs run is similar to ouput 48 hours ago! Heights are hugely different in a good way around Greenland. First signs of a climb back towards nirvana?

If it’s correct. I really don’t think it is! It’s one run from today other models have a good evolution it’s ensembles are better the control is better the mean is better the ecmwf 500 height charts are better so no need really to hyperbole over it just now in my humble opinion

It’s the start of a deep cold spell. How long? Not known yet but it will be the first real spell of this winter and one with building blocks in place with the potential to produce a fair amount of snow and ice days. btw this was a date I threw out there nearly 3 weeks ago due to background signals that many have already gone through numerous times over this period. It was a best guess based on them with lag for impacts to hit nothing more but it’s a running joke as the models began to converge on this exact date and the chances of getting something like this correct 3 weeks out is low!

I would urge all to follow the 500 charts John Holmes uses in this scenario. Models struggle in split flow scenarios, especially when it involves heights into Greenland. The extra resolution in this regard can cause more problems than you’d expect in the 144-192 range. You can see this on the ECM chart. If it gets low heights wrong around Greeenland the extra resolution just amplifies this and you end up with a 240 chart wildly different to other models. ensembles and 500 charts are there for a reason. As they smooth out errors and get the bigger picture correct. People need to stop getting too low after every op run and too high after every op run. I know it’s hard as it’s a passion but it will help you improve your ability to read charts if you take a step back and take emotion out of the equation The 15th (my day the hell as this come from hahah) is still on track.

There is someone who doesn’t post on here who is professional who has taught me a lot and one day I will thank him and name him for the time he’s spent learning me and giving me access to gdsm products that I shouldn’t really have but after this year the respect I have for this science id honestly say to enthusiasts please do some learning it’s the future of weather forecasting I have no doubt about it! If I showed people my notes and messages you would not believe the success I’ve had from this in 2023. It’s pushing on 85% forecast success for 3-4 weeks ahead of time! Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99706-model-output-discussion-into-2024/?do=findComment&comment=4995102

Tomorrow 12z should be the first day where a run shows -10 air and lower associated with the Greenland height rises! Then it gets really fun! I should add (inside 10 days)

Aww got ya! Yes! What’s happened is peoples interpretation of it has improved from experience of using it.

Not enough instability. 500hpa heights are too high we need them light blues at least or convection is too shallow

I don’t think it will always be like this it’s been a year where the tropics have dominated. If we had a stronger Strat or another driver over riding this I don’t think we could call this pattern with the same confidence but gdsm tools are extremely valuable. That I definitely know this year using them

Being dyslexic it leads to me writing in a simplified way but a way other enthusiasts can hopefully understand better. I try to write in this way best I can do really

Three waves of amplification driving heat right into the pole! The Siberian one interest me as this is where Greenland heights could merge with scandi ones for Week 3. Won’t show yet but may do by middle of next week. I’m thinking of where an extension of cold come from now. It will either extend or relax then we see another spell in early Feb maybe end of Jan! What a winter!

There is someone who doesn’t post on here who is professional who has taught me a lot and one day I will thank him and name him for the time he’s spent learning me and giving me access to gdsm products that I shouldn’t really have but after this year the respect I have for this science id honestly say to enthusiasts please do some learning it’s the future of weather forecasting I have no doubt about it! If I showed people my notes and messages you would not believe the success I’ve had from this in 2023. It’s pushing on 85% forecast success for 3-4 weeks ahead of time!

Agreed! This is what I look for. Cross model ensemble and mean support of more than a week onwards. It’s on day 9 btw if you go back and use the 46. I did the same for 2018 and 2010