Scott Ingham

I don’t think it will always be like this it’s been a year where the tropics have dominated. If we had a stronger Strat or another driver over riding this I don’t think we could call this pattern with the same confidence but gdsm tools are extremely valuable. That I definitely know this year using them

Being dyslexic it leads to me writing in a simplified way but a way other enthusiasts can hopefully understand better. I try to write in this way best I can do really

Three waves of amplification driving heat right into the pole! The Siberian one interest me as this is where Greenland heights could merge with scandi ones for Week 3. Won’t show yet but may do by middle of next week. I’m thinking of where an extension of cold come from now. It will either extend or relax then we see another spell in early Feb maybe end of Jan! What a winter!

There is someone who doesn’t post on here who is professional who has taught me a lot and one day I will thank him and name him for the time he’s spent learning me and giving me access to gdsm products that I shouldn’t really have but after this year the respect I have for this science id honestly say to enthusiasts please do some learning it’s the future of weather forecasting I have no doubt about it! If I showed people my notes and messages you would not believe the success I’ve had from this in 2023. It’s pushing on 85% forecast success for 3-4 weeks ahead of time!

Agreed! This is what I look for. Cross model ensemble and mean support of more than a week onwards. It’s on day 9 btw if you go back and use the 46. I did the same for 2018 and 2010

Best post of the winter! It sums up perfectly what our amateur forecasters @Catacol @Met4Cast have been saying and what I’ve been trying to say myself (although it’s a challenge for me to put anything into a lot of detail or to have the patience to put in writing my understanding having dyslexia other than to rhythmically talk about the 15th of January like some African voodoo spell but I just hope this year will encourage other amateurs this year to take the time to research this science. It’s taken me 3 years to research to have a true understanding and my next stop is the stratosphere! All in all a thoroughly enjoyable year this year from a learning perspective

How can it happen just as easily if there’s less of these options that makes the percentage chance of this happening smaller? That’s basic theory of probability isn’t it? Also charts from 12 days away with cross model ensemble support and that make sense due to background signals are actually quite likely to verify!

This run is the best yet for longevity! Things are looking VERY VERY VERY interesting! By the weekend we’ll have runs with crazy low uppers coming into the 192/168 range!

Yep! That’s precisely what it is. Scandi back to Greenland through February is my opinion. It’s the best chance of a very prolonged spell since I can remember

Yes with a propensity for a scandi high to take the lead going into February in my opinion

Hahaha I wish I had a crystal ball! I could have picked 2 days either side to account for the lag in GLAAM

I can confirm yes. Yes it is the 15th

Day 12/14 before we will hit the freezer

The cold air isn’t even due to hit at day 10 on the ecm… a Greenland high is due to build once that is in place is is inevitable that cold air drops down from the east. The chances of us being in the freezer are still extremely high

I’m sorry mate but push from the south west?! This is 2 days away from us going into the freezer

The charts are bang on for the 15th nothing is being delayed! Jesus Christ this forum has gone downhill!

That’s a stunning and surprisingly good mean! Upgrades to possibly come if that is the case!

Looks amazing! If it comes off I’m going to write a journal explaining the thinking from the second week in December. If it doesn’t a post mortem will be good as a learning! Also I replied to your earlier post and it’s gone red and waiting to be accepted before it’s posted is there any reason for this mods?

Look at the very back end of the gfs. Tentative signs there of high pressure edging into scandi for me. In fact I’d say 4 days later on it will stretch from greeny to scandi (the m*sausage) the potential in Jan n Feb this year is obscene but the word obscene could also be called super rare so expectations aren’t there really yet!!

Shuffling high lat blocking……Greenland/Iceland/Scandi/Iceland/Greenland…. Surely not a re run of a 63?!?! That feels unrealistic just typing it but lots of it seems logical when I think about it! I’ll take a 2 week spell tbh!

hmmmmm…… this is becoming madness!

yeah the year of the shuffling high! Pretty much the holy grail if the jigsaw pieces fall in the right places! We have an atmosphere ripe for it right into the heart of February!

Yeah I am mate

Fits an MJO signal to enter cod and quickly into Phase 6 off the back of a still reasonable GWO Phase and associated Glaam as I don’t expect these to drop a huge amount before being on the way up again

I’m glad to see that they are finally showing over scandi for February. This is what I told @Catacol would be my favoured next step from Greenland heights. Greenland/Scandi/Greenland…. Very 196……..? It’s draining but everyone’s entitled to their own opinion! UTM/UTO (both of us improving )