[Coldest minima winter 2020-2021 season]

It's a shame we couldn't feed into some of that very cold air here. Perfect synoptics for a sub -10c widely, just not enough snowfall

[Coldest minima winter 2020-2021 season]

What was 2010s min temperature. Is there a chance to beat that?

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Could be looking at quite a mild spell end of February. Similar to 2012/2019. At least this winter provided one of the coldest temperatures on record. Something to remember

[Coldest minima winter 2020-2021 season]

11 minutes ago, Norrance said:

No. Not likely to get near it but the coldest this century is doable. -22.3Cin Dec 2010 at Altnaharra. Only other year since 2000 under -20C was 2001 in March at Kinbrace.

Talking about Kinbrace, this is what the MetO tweeted an hr ago. Also, this is what is currently on their website. Looks like a below -20c is possible 

 

 

[Coldest minima winter 2020-2021 season]

5 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Is it at all possible that the all time Scottish record minima could be in danger tonight? 

to beat -27.2 is a stretch. i'd expect it to come close to the 2010 figure. There is a small possibility of it beating that, thus making it the coldest temperature since 1995

[February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

1 minute ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

February 2012 did indeed have a good cold spell in the first half (although didn't bring much in the way of widespread snowfall), but was obliterated by a mild second half, so Feb 2012 really is an example of where the month's overall CET did not describe the months' temperature profile at face value.  Feb 2009 was very similar in many ways to Feb 2012, with a very cold first half (but much more in the way of snow for most places), but Feb 2009's cold spell was also obliterated by a mild second half.  Both these months could have been cold overall but both went mild in mid-month.

Seems like a cold February throughout is becoming harder to get with every promising attempt being dashed away. Even Feb 1991 cold spell didn't last all that long. We have to go back to 1986 for a proper cold Feb, 35 yrs ago!

[Coldest minima winter 2020-2021 season]

MetO tweeted this. -20 is possible. Nothing compared to the -4c forecast to hit my area tonight. Though, still bitterly cold.

[February 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:

Stats above make interesting viewing, don't recall first half Feb 15 being particularly cold, it was a mostly NW airstream, however, think its origins were arctic Canada and do remember a number of snowy days. 

Feb 12 stands out, very anticyclonic, run of low minima.

Feb 12 could've been a cold month if it wasn't for that very mild end. I hope Feb 2021 doesn't take that same path.

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

P13 is what we need!

[North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards]

-4 at 9pm in Manchester. Could be the coldest night this winter

[North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards]

If only this was the case down here... 

[Model output discussion 10/02/21]

WAA has been a theme lately on the GFS. The cold not too far away.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

3 minutes ago, GeordieX9v said:

"That para" Hope we're not going down that path just to see some blowtorch SW winds later on

We've already had a "That GFS" moment when the models were showing extended cold and easterlies for a few days, for it to only vanish. Latest GFS suite looks good tho

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

With that much warm air advection, cold weather is inevitable! Hoping more models hop onto this 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Much better than 00Z. Low sinking south and cold incoming

  

 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

WAA?

   

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Para has a much stronger scandi high which drags the cold pool much closer to us!

It was thinking about undercutting from the west at 144 too.

I'm going to mashing f5 at 2pm for the met office update

That cold pool is so close!! Would take a small adjustment for it to come here.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

idk about you guys but i'd take cold and dry rather than wet and mild any day. will help river levels in the long run

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

A lot of ensembles are keeping it cold on the pub run. Looks like a 50/50 split, still uncertain. 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

2 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looks like February may not finish below average with what’s shown in the models recently. Watch the Met Office backtrack from their cold outlook.

Could well end up being another Feb 2012 if we don't get another cold spell at the end of the month. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

JFF but P20 rly going for it on this one. Overall, the GEFS 12Z looks much better than the 06. Let's not give up just yet 

[Winter so far-comments?]

Up to the 8th Feb, winter 2020/21 has been great and it’s not over yet with the coldest weather yet to come. January was very good in terms of snow and cold here. December also decent with 2 good snowfalls and a frosty Christmas period.

I forget how much of a contrast it is to last winter, which we all remember was one of the worst. This time last year we were all under the grips of Storm Ciara. One year later, an easterly
 

 

[Coldest minima winter 2020-2021 season]

ECM 12Z forecasting lows under -10 in the south. Granted if we get clear skies, slack winds and snow cover it’s possible. 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

A nice cluster of very cold uppers showing up on the 18Z GEFS suite continuing the cold spell. Something to keep an eye on perhaps.