[How cold has the just departing cold spell been for you?]

The cold started on Christmas with the odd flurry that day. From then it was cold, snowy and foggy for the next 15 days. Got an appreciable amount of snow on the 28th. Then again on the 31st, 2nd and 7th. Already that's more snow than the 2 preceding winters. A harsh frost on the 7th was noteworthy however, lows of -5 and didn't go above -1. First half of winter albeit quite mild on the 2nd week of December has been quite good. 

[Model output discussion - January cold spell ending, what next?]

31 minutes ago, LRD said:

Op not representative of the suite in FI

 

Those 850s are definitely trending colder with every run. The outlook sure does look very interesting 

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

models going for a cold mid month onwards, if that actually happens then a sub 2c month is possible

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

it should go down to 1c at least by day 10. perhaps lower 

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

12 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

1.7c to the 7th

2.2c below the 61 to 90 average
2.6c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 1.7c on the 5th, 6th & 7th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

wow rly? Surely the CET went down after yesterday's ice day 

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

I think the 2010s did quite good for cold months, much better than the 2000s. As for this month i feel like my prediction of 2.9 isn't too bad. We just need the effects of the SSW to arrive hopefully in the final week.

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

Anyone wanna move to Madrid for awhile to escape next weeks mild spell? Shame we cant get this here, but we still have a month and a half left of winter. Fingers crossed 

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

Just now, damianslaw said:

Oh just scraped in then. Would be nice to see a sub 3 degree month this winter at least. Not had many such months in last 10 years, think only Feb 2013, Mar 2013 and Feb 2018, very poor showing!

how about a sub 2c month. 2010 had two sub 2c months and none after that. that would be great if it happened imo 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

53 minutes ago, TheOgre said:

We had some decent snow on December 29 but since then it’s just been cold with the odd flurry. I don’t think we’re in for a March 2018 again this week.

For me the temperatures are very close to the BFTE event in March 18. Lows of -5 and highs of 0 today. This period has been colder than the BFTE, has been coldest since Jan 13 which is remarkable imo

[Thursday 7th January weather observations]

coldest night so far this winter. -5c min with a max of 1 and quite foggy. Got a dusting of snow as well 

[Winter 2020-2021 Prediction for the UK]

Already it looks like this January will be cold, possibly colder than 2013 if the effects of the SSW come into play

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

This would be a dream outlook in the UK, hard frosts and deep snow. -11c in Madrid, that's crazy!

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

7 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

First report on EWP this month, 8 mm so far (7 mm to 4th, est 1 mm since then to start of GFS 18z run today) then only about 10 mm on average shown for next ten days, charts for days 11-16 appear to give a further 10 mm then (to late 22nd). That's a total of only 28 mm with nine days left in the month. 

For the CET, the current output suggests that once it turns slightly milder after about 10th, it still won't get all that mild with an average CET in the milder spell around 4.5 C, then another cold spell is predicted, so the blend looks like 2.5 C on average to around the 22nd. 

the mild spell next week has rly been watered down over the past day or so. Was expecting maxes of 9-10 but looking about average here. CET wise, im expecting a significant drop in the next 2-3 days

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Instead of seeing cold snaps this month, we're seeing a "warm snap". Looks like this milder interlude will probably last for 2-3 days according to the GFS ensemble mean and with every GFS run today, it looks like the mean is going below the 30yr average line. Probably a sign to something interesting to come.

[January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

This Jan could be colder than 2013 with the right setup especially at the latter stage of the month. CET currently at 1.5, will probably be under 1 at day 10 and make a gradual increase after. My prediction of 2.9 seems reasonable, for now..

 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

4 minutes ago, WinterWilf said:

Looking cold in Spain, Also know for their very cold winter snowy climate.

Damn Us and their snowy cold winters 

Looks like Madrid will get 2-3 days of nonstop snow and lows of -8 forecast for next week. Wonder when that will happen for us

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

Surprisingly, the capital of Spain, Madrid will be a lot colder than here in the UK with lows forecasted to be around -8, and a lot snowier. Could get a bit of snow in the north of the country on Thursday tho. Afterwards, its the usual wet, cool weather we normally get.

[Model output discussion - Jan 3rd onwards]

At least it's not gonna be mild like Jan 2020, outlook on the 6Z GFS keeps the cold air for most of the run w/ a lot of snow potential. Hopefully something comes out of the SSW at months end. 

[Saturday 2nd January weather observations]

The snow from Monday still on the ground. Low of -5c and a high forecasted to be 0. So freezing all day. Looking at the charts, a heavy dumping of snow is supposed to fall in my area today. Coldest start to a year since 2010.

[Model output discussion - Into 2021]

26 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

WAIT, is that a...


 

Such a good run of 18z GFS charts over the past few days until today. Hopefully it doesn't verify

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

Overall CET for 2020 is 10.76 only beaten by 2006 and 2014 with CETs of 10.87 and 10.95 respectively. 3rd warmest year, can't say I'm surprised. With December's CET of 5.0, it makes it milder than average but certainly didn't feel like it. Let's hope 2021 has a different approach in the weather!

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Today would have dropped it by 0.2 I imagine a strong frost and a cold day for many few seen ice day in SE which is very rare. Easily the coldest day of 2020.

 

A great way of ending such a horrible year. Hoping for these frosts to continue into Jan 

[December 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests -- start of the new contest year for 2020-2021]

Looks like it may finish up at 4.9c after corrections. Shame the mild spell in the middle cancelled out the cold first and final weeks of the month. I'd suspect if we kept the cold going through the middle or even just average, we'd be close to the upper 2s. Overall its been a interesting month.

[Winter 2020/21 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

A good 2-3 cm of snow today. Totally unexpected the forecast was showing sleet and showers for the morning. Winter has started off well imo. This December albeit quite mild CET-wise has been the most interesting since 2010 for my area with the snow at the start of the month, a flurry on Christmas Day and today.

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

Wow. Just wow. If this snow actually came off it would be a week to remember indeed. Let's hope we get something similar