Frigid
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Posts posted by Frigid
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Latest BBC monthly forecast is very encouraging for cold weather!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/outlook
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1 minute ago, cheese said:
The Met Office are forecasting zero ice days here. Very underwhelming.
Same here in Manchester. Maxes of 2 from Sunday to Thursday. I assume its the lack of snowfall in my area, since London is forecasted to be below 0 in the same timeframe.
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In my lifetime i can only remember Feb 2012 and 2009 having potent cold snaps and snow. Feb 2018 provided heavy snow and cold at the end tho. But it has been a while since we've had a cold February throughout. Maybe this Feb will be the one..
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Looking at the latest GFS, ECM and GEM suites, there certainly has been a big switch to keep the colder weather. Very unreliable given the time frame but it's something to keep an eye on rn
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With what the GFS and GEM are currently showing, I wouldn't be all that surprised if the CET went sub zero, if it came off. Could be some very cold nights ahead of us!
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Snowfall here looks to be on and off next week with the best chance of snowfall on Thursday. Very cold with sub 0 temperatures for 4 days
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4 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:
How can we be seeing this kind of chart when the NAO forecast doesn't even reflect the -NAO setup on the GFS chart. Doesn't that show classic -NAO with high pressure near Greenland and Iceland and lower pressure further south?
That NAO chart is from the 1st. Think it would be more negative in the next chart
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5 minutes ago, frosty ground said:
Might turn the heating up come the weekend
Ignore the snow symbols look at those maximumsOh wow that's BFTE stuff right there. My area of Manchester only showing maxes of 2 and no snowfall, reckon MetO will update this later on
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GEM P17 really wants to put us into the freezer next week. Most likely won't verify but it would defo break a lot of records.
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Substantially colder than average month, finally. Recorded a high of 11.2 (20th) , and a low of -5.6 (7th). 15 frosts, 4 ice days and 7 snowy days. Quite good in todays climate.
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8 minutes ago, summer blizzard said:
GFS6z aside it looks like I'll hit 10 falling snow days this week.
Would be interesting to compare to Newcastle, Nottingham and Manchester.
Up to 1st Feb, i've had 9 falling snow days, 9 more than last year
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For my first CET prediction, think I did decent. EWP is a different story however..
To get a cold month with 142mm rainfall is remarkable
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3 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:
Compared with the 81-10 values, there were 9 days above and 22 days below average. One day reached the top 10 warmest (20th), but no days were in the bottom 10 coldest.
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33 minutes ago, Relativistic said:
January confirmed as 3.1C:
A whole 3.3c cooler than last January, not bad. If we didn't get that warming at the end of the month, it would've been sub 3 for sure.
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I wouldn't be worrying too much atm. That LP just needs to sink south and with the lack of Iberian heights, doesn't look far from achieving it. GFS just going through that phase again. ECM and GEM look great
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Cold start to the morning. -3c and sunny
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4 hours ago, snowray said:
Last night temps were below 0c throughout the CET zone, should see a .1c drop..I’d say that 3.1c looks most likely after corrections.
Haven't had a January with a CET of 3.1 since 1832. Could be on the way to break that
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On 19/01/2021 at 11:58, Frigid said:
this is probably gonna change at the end of the month, but for now ill put 3.5c and 45mm for February
There are signals of a cold February on our way. Expecting some wetter interludes mixed in as well so changing my prediction to 2.6c and 70mm.
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16 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:
Wow 2020/21 is up there with some of the cold winters in terms of -ve AO days. Such a contrast from last year. Unfortunately we are yet to see any decent cold spell throughout the country. Still, there's February left tho. I just hope this winter offers something special cause it's not often this happens
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10 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:
Who needs a beasterly to get any snow. Just take a look at GFS 06z ensemble Member 14 at 384 hours
Time to bring on the polar opposite, the BESTERLY
Before you think your eyes are deceiving you. That is uppers of -10 at 850hpa from the west covering most of England with -12 uppers over SE England
Westerlies giving -10c 850hpa temps. I just know if that came off we would be buried in snow!
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Went down to -5.2 this morning. Currently -2.6. Classic winters day with some snowfall
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3 minutes ago, Manchester_Sunset said:
We've not done too bad in Manchester
Has to be the snowiest winter for years over here
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Another unexpected snowfall. 2-3cm settled on the frozen ground overnight. Considering this week I've had 3 snow days that's pretty good imo
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GFS ensembles look good, definitely better than yesterday
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Model thread discussion - cold spell looming
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Wow. Just wow. This winter has certainly been an exciting time for model watching, and as when you thought it wouldn't get better, it has. Stonking charts on the 12Z GFS, straight after a cold period of weather!! These developments are very encouraging as the models are following this trend of a mega scandi high. Looking at this, my CET prediction of 2.5 for February might be too high