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Notty

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  1. Notty
    Will this small LP in Scotland make any difference to the cold holding on? From Pressure Map - Britain WWW.XCWEATHER.CO.UK Mobile Current Wind / Weather observations and forecast. Providing near real time weather maps of wind strength and direction across the UK
  2. Notty
    Already -2.5 here now. Was -7 this morning. Clear and dry.
  3. Notty
    Agreed. The spaghetti starts in just four days. Uncertainty rules.
  4. Notty
    Bank IMBY. I’ll check back on 14th
  5. Notty
    Trendsetter not without followers though …
  6. Notty
    Also, there is a shed load of snow forecast for Europe which should bring temperatures down there and increase the density of the cold air making it even harder to shift.
  7. Notty
    I wonder what it is that makes the models “flip” e.g. THAT ECM (butterfly fart in Peru perhaps?) Last night it was all good in the hood. Anyway, the colder weather hasn’t really started yet. The models might “flip” again. Nobody and no model knows what will happen in 168 hours time weather wise
  8. Notty
    I’m sure Chris Fawkes said yesterday that 0.1 degrees C can be the difference between rain and snow
  9. Notty
    Pretty good agreement until the LP turns up
  10. Notty
    Interesting Those low pressures don’t always head into France. Imagine trying to model where a spinning top will go - then change it for a puff of spinning air. Amazing how we get anything of use from the NWP. Anyway, anything is possible in the next week …
  11. Notty
    I’ll believe that when I see it
  12. Notty
    That little feature in the North Sea is still showing up.
  13. Notty
    I can see Bill Giles now saying once you get that deep heavy cold air blocking in Europe it’s very hard for anything to shift it.
  14. Notty
    Yes. Chris Fawkes on the Beeb seemed sure that it would be cold well into December…
  15. Notty
    Can we get excited now
  16. Notty
    Yes please
  17. Notty
    I like the look of the feature approaching NE England
  18. Notty
    AI model - how is this looking? Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels CHARTS.ECMWF.INT **ECMWF is now running an experimental suite to evaluate the forecasting skill of a series of publicly available data-driven forecast models initialised by ECMWF 4D-Var...
  19. Notty
    Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Temperature and geopotential at various pressure levels CHARTS.ECMWF.INT **ECMWF is now running an experimental suite to evaluate the forecasting skill of a series of publicly available data-driven forecast models initialised by ECMWF 4D-Var... Experimental AI model showing a cooler flow for 28/11
  20. Notty
    I’ve added the link to my post so those that can decipher the charts can translate for me ECMWF | Charts CHARTS.ECMWF.INT
  21. Notty
    Graphcast (AI Deepmind) model from ECMWF site for 18z Friday 24th Experimental: GraphCast ML model: Mean sea level pressure and 850 hPa wind speed CHARTS.ECMWF.INT **ECMWF is now running an experimental suite to evaluate the forecasting skill of a series of publicly available data-driven forecast models initialised by ECMWF 4D-Var... ECMWF | Charts CHARTS.ECMWF.INT
  22. Notty
    And this - AI could predict hurricane landfall sooner - report AI could predict hurricane landfall sooner - report WWW.BBC.CO.UK A Google DeepMind tool predicted where one would hit three days ahead of existing methods. This is model discussion topic after all Original post: https://community.netweather.tv/topic/99428-model-output-discussion-mid-autumn/?do=findComment&comment=4951829
  23. Notty
    And this - AI could predict hurricane landfall sooner - report AI could predict hurricane landfall sooner - report WWW.BBC.CO.UK A Google DeepMind tool predicted where one would hit three days ahead of existing methods. This is model discussion topic after all
  24. Notty
    Frankly I’m amazed that SSTs would not taken into consideration when most of the surface of the earth is covered by seas. Is it factually correct that the models don’t consider SSTs ?
  25. Notty
    I was there in Gloucester. It was unbelievable. My wife’s birthday. Really warm in the early evening even though it was dark and October. Unforgettable.
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