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Notty

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Everything posted by Notty

  1. Notty
    Yes. I remember the old forecasters (Bill Giles et al) saying that the a large cold block, once in situ, was very difficult to shift.
  2. Notty
    Mainly Banbury by the looks of it JFF of course
  3. Notty
    Hurrah !!!
  4. Notty
  5. Notty
    The proof of the pudding is in the eating. It’ll be really interesting to see how this pans out !
  6. Notty
    Agreed . I look forward to the outcome. It was only a few months ago that I was singing the praises of the GFS for modelling a deep low well in advance (over seven days) and basically being spot on. The weather ain’t what it used to be so who knows … GFS forecast 40c in the UK this year and we all raised a brow (I would imagine) and it was correct.
  7. Notty
    It is odd that the model runs are published with impossible/unprecedented situations. I would have imagined that really silly modelling would be highlighted and reviewed by humans. It is a bit like poor payment systems that send ridiculously high payments out to people. Where is the common sense check?
  8. Notty
    The old // run has had its first taste of Stella and is a little squiffy
  9. Notty
    Luckily it’s only a NWP thing and doesn’t exist.
  10. Notty
    The storm can’t spin up out of nowhere. It must be seeding somewhere, usually off the West coast of Africa.
  11. Notty
    That disturbance in the flow is there for Thursday too
  12. Notty
    Very interesting ! Thursday’s snow perhaps …
  13. Notty
    and NOAA are not expecting any tropical storms there in the next five days and a storm like that would already be brewing and monitored by the NHC (in my opinion)
  14. Notty
    Perhaps bits of the vortex will keep dropping off and hitting us until next March. We would have had enough by then
  15. Notty
    Does anyone have access to the latest Decider model/graphic that was posted on here recently?
  16. Notty
    Starts tomorrow according to Meteociel
  17. Notty
    Kicked in the Canaries more like
  18. Notty
    A week today (pls) I’m starting to believe now
  19. Notty
    On its way to Greece
  20. Notty
    Colder and cold earlier
  21. Notty
    again …
  22. Notty
    I’m buckled up on that ride. Downhill to the GFS 18z or are we still climbing to the top . The only thing I want for Xmas is snow on Xmas Eve (never happened in my 60 years). Here’s hoping
  23. Notty
    It is etched on my brain
  24. Notty
    Where is @That ECM ? Hopefully we won’t be led up the garden path again . This ECM has support from the other models
  25. Notty
    Something is definitely afoot. The HUMP model (Highly Unusual Meal Pattern) is telling me to eat more than usual. This is a blue-chip model that usually spots a major pattern change about two weeks before it happens (last week of Nov). Don’t all rush to the bookies though
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