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Flake news

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Everything posted by Flake news

  1. Flake news
    I'd have thought that borderline setups like this are an example of where we are likely to directly see an effect of warming... where a 1degC-ish raise in background temps will be the difference between wet snow and sleet/rain. (Although the biblical deluges in the Lake District of the 2009/2015 El Ninos are surely the most directly visible effects.)
  2. Flake news
    It is when the output shows a colder outlook, it isn't when it doesn't. It's like feature A will help if given feature B and feature C, but not if given B & not given C, it might help if not given B and not given C, but if given B and not given C then A definitely won't help, but all these are redundant if not given features D,E & F & so on ad infinitum. NWP is (literally infinitely) complicated. That's why no opinions are disprovable and that's what makes it fun.
  3. Flake news
    Yesterday some knowledgeable posters noted that the westward progression of depressions was showing signs of stalling. This was also attributed to the link between the stratosphere and troposphere.
  4. Flake news
    Did these winters have high pressure to the north, in the heart of winter?
  5. Flake news
    I'm not sure why people are so downhearted, there was definitely chips of ice in the heavy rain last night. I for one won't be forgetting The Great Easterly Of 2021 in a hurry.
  6. Flake news
    The relative lack of GWO and MJO gossip this year has been refreshing. It's not fun being glued to MJO charts for seeking out advanced possibilities of 12 hour topplers.
  7. Flake news
    I'd love to know the source for this simply so that I know to completely disregard them in the future. Sounds a bit Piers Corbyny.
  8. Flake news
    ...and to top it all off we have unbearably smug posters who live at like 200m+ demanding that we feel happy for them. They need to stop trying to make that happen, it's not going to happen.
  9. Flake news
    2019 I think, ... they wrongly predicted easterlies from late January, and kept wrongly predicting them over and over again until early April. Afterwards papers were dug out showing "it was the wrong type of SSW"... just poor science all round, that god it was the stratosphere and not a nuclear reactor. Turned me into a hardened old cynic.
  10. Flake news
    Not yours particularly, more in the comment you replied to.
  11. Flake news
    a lot of passive aggressive 'Happy New Years' being thrown around this morning
  12. Flake news
    The GFS seems consistent in bringing milder weather at the end of its runs, has been for days, that's coming into view in ECMWF now too. But it's irrelevant because the people who develop the numerical simulations know absolutely nothing about the stratosphere, which is what I'm apparently supposed to believe. Meanwhile, some heavy rain in Darlo last night, from a NNEasterly in the heart of winter.
  13. Flake news
    It seems accepted on here that the Atlantic is almost exclusively to blame for our relatively mild winters... maybe we need to rethink that conclusion so that next time we won't be so disappointed. In the meantime, here's hoping that frozen sleet won't overburden A&Es in the next few weeks.
  14. Flake news
    It might be weak but it's very nimble. It's like trying to grab a bar of soap.
  15. Flake news
    Frozen ground is my benchmark. Disliking "slush n' muck" is human.
  16. Flake news
    I'd imagine people in '63 noted how little snow there was compared '47. "Winters aren't what the used to be!", they probably said.
  17. Flake news
    I wouldn't say there's noteworthy spread on those uppers... that's why there's a noticeable dearth of excitement about the overall pattern. We're losing sleep over "will it be -3 or -6?" In a memorable winter spell options are more exciting than that.
  18. Flake news
    In the old economy JH would get a commission for his contributions. It's like enthusiastic teachers not being paid money because their reward is the adrenalin rush of doing what they love.
  19. Flake news
    Cold rain with nasty ice bits, treacherous glassy bike paths. I wanted an easterly now I've got buyer's remorse.
  20. Flake news
    Increasingly underwhelmed by this incessant production line of easterlies sourced from the sahel... climaxing with long-drawn south-westerlies after a Greenland high gets sucked over the horizon by million-mile-an-hour retrogression.
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