TheOgre

Summer8906 It’s a March Easter. They’re always terrible. 2018 (Good Friday, Holy Saturday were March), 2016, 2013 and 2008 were all cold and/or wet and miserable as far as I remember anyway.

It’s nice out there for a change. First proper spring like afternoon.

I’m going to say not yet but later in the century. We’ve only nudged 40C once and we’ve never had a 39C. It's difficult to know whether it was a trend setter or just a one off for now. It took 19 years to jump from 38C to 40C so perhaps 20 to 35 years to jump from 40C to 43C?

At what point will the pattern flip to sunny and dry? Late March, April, beyond……

I reckon March and April might go in a similar way to 2020 after the wet February or perhaps more like April 2022 to be more realistic as 2020 was exceptional. It’s been so wet for so long, that pattern must break eventually so I do think it will be drier from mid March and into April.

My thoughts on Winter 2023/24: This winter has been a carbon copy of 2021/22 but wetter. Both had very mild, dull Decembers with cold starts, sunny settled spells in January and mild, wet Februaries. Aside from the frosty and dry snap in mid January, it had been an insanely mild throughout really, especially since late January. Not in a nice springlike way but I’ve still seen some of the earliest bulbs I’ve ever seen like a tulip in February I saw this morning.

I had a look on the anomaly maps to compare the 21st century classics and made a quick collage. To answer the question 2006 vs 2018: 2018 seems to be the superior one for most.

Metwatch In my opinion it’s whether you prefer a front or back ended summer. 2018 was more front loaded and 2022 more back loaded. Geographically, 2022 was truly exceptional for the east of England and nothing special for the northwest of Britain. 2018 had a very lengthy dry and sunny June and July. June was pleasant until the equinox and then fantastic until late July and the best part was mid to late July. August was average. 2022 was the other way round. It was a mixed June, quite pleasant and sunny but nothing special. July was exceptionally dry and featured THE heatwave but not quite as sunny. August was stunning throughout but best in the first half. June 2018 >> June 2022 July 2018 > July 2022 (but close because of that heatwave) August 2018 << August 2022 I’d say 2018 was slightly better in my area but the July 2022 heatwave was more interesting than anything in Summer 2018.

This month nearly did Thursday before last but it went bust just before. December 2023 April 2022 November 2021 February 2019 November 2015

Some early budding on local poplar trees. Plenty of white blossom around and daffodils. If we have a mild March there could be a very early leaf out this year.

baddie I’d quite happily have dross until the equinox if it means we could have an April and May 2020 repeat. We’re certainly due a lengthy drier spell. Anyway, what is it with these mild dull and ultra boggy Februaries we’ve been having in this decade? 2020, 2022 and now 2024! I used to think January was the Atlantic wet dank one and February was the start of the “dry(ish) season”. The 2020s have reversed that so far!

SunSean They literally have it all, whatever your preference and barely anywhere as cloudy as here! Sun trying to peak out here but mostly cloudy. If it were a sunnier day it would feel springlike being how mild it is out there.

One thing I’ve noticed after just having thought about weather quirks is when a month is known for notable weather the next year will often have the exact opposite weather. In chronological order off the top of my head: July 2022 - July 2023 March 2022 - March 2023 February 2022 - February 2023 May 2020 - May 2021 June 2018 - June 2019 February 2018 - February 2019 July 2012 - July 2013 March 2012 - March 2013 April 2011 - April 2012 This doesn’t bode well for June and September 2024

cheese Yeah that cold March/hot summer quirk is an interesting one. Adding to the good spring/poor summer trend, 2020 was like that as well. After that stunning April and May we had that vile July. 2023 similar too but a bit later with the great June (and May for the west) then the vile July.

SunSean But mild and wet Februaries often lead to warm, dry and sunny springs. For example 2022, 2020, 2011 and 2007.

At this stage I think we can only say it’s most likely we’ll have a worse June and a better July than last year.

The trouble with this potential event is that it will quickly turn to slush and melt on Thursday night or Friday when the mild air returns. It kind of reminds me of a snowfall on the back of a 12ish C day in January 2021.

I don’t think I’d agree with 2021 being forgettable. The January to May period was very weird. We had a good January snowfall, brief but remarkable March heat and sudden plunge in to April snow. The very cold and sunny April and one of the wettest Mays on record. I think all of the 20s years have seen memorable weather periods so far.

Touch and go for the fleeting heavy snow on Thursday here. It’s looking like it could be quite a mild February as well. It would be weird to have a heavy snow event in a mild month.

Exceptional upcoming forecast. It’s going from mild, wet dross to cold, wet dross. How exciting Thursday looks especially great!

Bog standard January by the looks of it by temperature and rainfall. A frosty spell, a mild spell and everything in between. Very similar to last year.

I agree with some others that 2022 was pretty much the best you can probably get for a spring and summer combination in England. March to early September was a mostly sunny, warm and dry affair. May was warm and dull but all the other months were sunny. There are definitely better springs like 2020 but I don’t think we’d have a spring 2020 followed by a summer 2022 or 2018 or if we did it’d be a once in a lifetime event. It’s just not the climate. Actually I think I might be mistaken. 2003 looks very similar to 2022 if not better by stats but I don’t remember it.

@In Absence of True Seasons The UK’s rainfall is bumped up by very wet places like the Scottish Highlands and the Lake District. Most places are nowhere near as wet. Ireland is the only country in Europe which is worse than the U.K. in both summer and winter. Norway and Iceland are worse in summer but much better in winter.

It’s like October out there today being so mild.

First pre 08:00 sunrise today and I’m fairly sure we’re out of the darkest quarter in terms of sunsets; nowhere near for mornings yet though. Darkest quarter overall ends on 3 February so not long now!