MJB

we have at 48 -72

See where ECM sits before kicking the cat around the garden, nothing like the MET update. 5-10 dayer

Not much different to this mornings Luke, just 50-60 miles further North

No, not really, the wording in the extended extended can stay the same for at least a couple of days, I would imagine the trickier period is the mid term

Not on the back of one GFS run, you know that.

Agreed, nothing remotely promoting a Red warning.

Of course it depends on peoples perception of the South, if you think M4 and below your not wrong But I think those who live in this region will be a bit nervy, the further North you are in this region the better you are IMO.......................of course this could well be different again by 18:45 this evening.

We will get a covering I am sure, unless the models suddenly take the LP further South in to France and we sit in the cold air and wait for the next system.

Decent runs this morning, looks like the Northerly will happen. LP's from the SW approaching, classic scenario's from yesteryear, the snow/rain line is now an interesting topic for sure. I think most will see snow , some will see snow to rain and possibly back to snow , I'd say Birmingham to Leeds is all snow , MBY is borderline as to whether it flips to rain for a short while before the cold air digs in again. Pure conjecture at this time, we wont really know how far in these LP's come until probably Monday evening.

Control brings more Snow through on 22nd......................JFF of course

Easterly en route ???

It's not totally a lost cause but this is a JFF post, surely UKMO and ECM aren't both wrong v GFS

Just need the SW feature to shoot along the Channel and we get snow and keep the cold

Great forecast from C Fawkes but clearly shows the uncertainty, wasn't sure which chart he was following but widespread snow and possible disruption, turning to rain from S Wales ....ISH southwards. But it's clear they do not know. Wasn't even like this so maybe a 192 chart.

I went to GFS 144 and laughed......................mental difference

You should know Exeter won't form an outlook from a GEFS chart ..............LOL

100% IMBY its a beauty and for Luke, but as Luke says a shift either way and we could/might miss out. Let's see where it sits first though, it's just another option

It is, the LP out West would give a real dumping, I was surprised the 850's were low 192 LP Crosses the Southern part of England That's a dumping of snow IMO

If it turned out like this many would be saying WTF was all the fuss about LOL, 2 weeks chase for ............lol Just as well it's one run and will show something through the runs tomorrow

Not me it doesn't, I miss out on nearly a foot of snow JFF of course, this leaves MBY with naff all and nothing with a wow factor with regards cold I'm afraid

The GFS is an absolute belter for MBY but the UKMO is more attractive for longevity, I personally think GFS is great to look at but it won't turn out this way

Looks messy against the 6z but a large amount on here would take this run, deep snow and still very cold as the LP whizzes away East

I'd take that ......................BANK

At this range its's merely JFF M4 North getting hammered LP moving along the channel, a classic event M4 North event before moving off East

HIGH risk with a fantastic reward eh?