AltonMatthew

I called this, people get too excited by runs that are days out. Always proceed with caution.

I have to say I have said from the start we are getting an air mass which is typically dry. We were not likely to be getting the levels of snow forecast this time yesterday. I foresaw the low sinking south and believe it will keep doing so. Hopefully im wrong and there is a big flip today! I see the model thread has once again become southerly driven.

Ah the typical creation of a southern conversation as ever. I said this earlier in the week that we are more likely to become a cold and dry scenario and it seems as the low sinks further self on the 00z I cant see anything coming off for next week other than cold and dry.

Think us in Stoke and Staffs Moorlands would be happy here.

Where are you seeing "Deep Snow" the current cold forecast looks very dry and the models are the same. Predicting precipitation is useless, cold does not mean snow.

Up down up down.

SNOWMAGEDDON haha

Cold seems to be the overall theme over the coming days. I am skeptical in regards to precipitation. Just being outside you can feel how dry the air is. Think about the tundra and just how cold it gets there but overall quite dry. I am all for snowy weather but I cant see anything in the models showing anything other than cold or dry just yet. Saying that most snow events ive experienced have been known within a 24 hour timeframe at best. Nice to be back in our regional thread as also experiencing the typical southern bias of the model output and its hard to discuss or determine the various outputs when focus is on a particular small area when compared to the whole of the UK.

Anyone else seeing the models do their typical pushback on these outcomes, particularly around the delivery of wintry precipitation. It seems we continue to only see the benefits of sustained cold out in FI only for it to be pushed back further. I am a fan of the cold weather, but bitterly cold and dry isnt very fun at all.

Model Downgrades incoming as expected. Yet again too many got carried away with initial signs not understanding that yet again the models will flip or push the date out. Im holding no hope than a few days maybe of colder temps but nothing special as usual.

Alot of positivity in the model forums is a nice change. But I air with caution. How many times have we been here for things to suddenly revert back to mild output. So far the meaty stuff is still 7+ days away. Enjoy the cold lover output but enjoy with caution. Things can and will change of previous experience is to go by.

As this is a model discussion it would be nice to see discussion in the models and not the usual winter is over comments on one bad run. Nothing is ever set in stone until it happens. Some of the language is so negative lol

its as if the Robin knew I wanted a seasonal photo! Depth 13cm here in Alton Staffordshire. Had a lovely morning ina. Winter wonderland before it possibly gets washed away. People talking of the possibility of more coming?? When is this showing in the models?

My forecast has gone from heavy rain to sleet on the met office. Would be nice if by some miracle we got more snow from this precipitation band... then I dont know if thats even possible lol

A beautiful winter winderland here this morning with 11cm of snow lying! An amazing result here in Alton - Staffordshire Moorlands. Forecast rain from 11am so out to enjoy it as much as possible!

Is it not nailed on for rain Monday? Or could our patch be expecting snow?

Like Matt we are having some epic snowfall here in Alton Staffordshire. Same some of the best snowfall as in flakes etc ive seen for a while! Beautiful out there with 3cm coverage at the moment!

Worth staying up for after all! 1cm and falling thick now. Alton - Staffordshire Moorlands 11:35pm 20231202_234205.mp4

Question is do I go to bed or wait it out to see if we get some snowfall tonight! You guys in Longton and Meir seem to get snow when us in Alton dont get a flake haha

It is bizarre. Does anyone know the technicals around thebworking of the radar? Wonder if its up there but not falling?

Well the bands look to be merging abit. But then as everyone else seems to be seeingnincluding some in the NW forum... theres ni precipitation where radar is showing it... plenty of time to come and weve had a dusting here in Alton Staffordshire. So as a start to Winter today and the last few days has been lovely and seasonal!

Seems to be moving on a more north easterly track. Im in the staffs moorlands and dont see it hitting us until later this evening. Despite the precipitation being close by.

Every year its the same with model watching. Have we not learnt by now that comparing previous years proves ineffective for predicting whats in store for us in the coming season. I would personally prefer to use a model watching forum for looking at the output of models readily available now and make an assumption based on that.

Thanks for this! Should be arriving there tomorrow so landing should be fun if its stormy. Hoping its not bad out there as really need some sun! Any updates on the models for the better?