[Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24]

So parts of the North Midlands including my patch are now in a 3 day weather warning for Snow. 

Looking at the precip charts amongst others I cant see the justification for the warnings matching the actual forecast. 

I am hoping this signals they may be seeing some up to date shower activity popping up which was always the hope and how some of our best snow events have happened in the past.

Keeping every thing crossed we get some good snowfall this week with the cold being in place. 

Feeling this could be a radar and lampost watching period!

[Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24]

Ill take the cheshire gap effect. These showers often give us at least a covering of snow in our neck of the woods, Stoke and Staff Moorlands. 

 

I always approached this as a cold dry period. There is just such a dry feel to the air, after all the recent rainfall it is of course a good thing in real terms for farming and the locals who have suffered some flooding already this year. 

 

I would however love an old fashioned good covering of snow that leaves us in Alton cut off! We were very lucky in December to have had a very good snowfall. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

23 minutes ago, Lord Grogon said:

So my non-technical take on what will happen. Based on nothing more than my direct experiences, plus reading this site.

1) It will get much colder over the weekend. There will be much talk in the media of "stiff northerlys" and "arctic blasts"

2) A few places in the north will get snow showers. But on the whole most places will remain dry. Some will grumble at this, but others will maintain that we should keep the faith.

3) There will be much talk of a big midweek snow event. But ultimately it will trend southwards and miss the UK.

4) There will be louder grumbles,  but others will say "at least it is still cold".

5) A much bigger low will approach from the west. There will be talk of "battleground scenarios" and "midlands north event"

6) The low will pile through. There will be snow on the leading edge that will produce dramatic pictures on the news. But overall it will soon become a rainy/slushy mess. It will mark the end of the cold spell and people will be sad.

7) Others will say "Doesn't matter. Background signals are supporting an even better cold spell opportunity next month." There is much rejoicing and the chase is resumed" 

This is 100% how it will go. Well done Lord Grogon! 

1 minute ago, Rob 79812010 said:

To me, everything seems pretty much on track. Last week of Jan was always looking like a warm up. It's what comes after that..... 

But lets be honest. Its always "What comes after that". Typical FI chasing that produces nothing notable.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

This

 

to this in 5 days…

 

Ouch

 

 

I called this, people get too excited by runs that are days out. Always proceed with caution.

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Just now, Paul said:

How joyous it must be for people to turn up here in the morning, hoping to read up on the model output to find a(nother) circular argument doing the rounds again. Can we move on now, please.

[Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24]

I have to say I have said from the start we are getting an air mass which is typically dry. We were not likely to be getting the levels of snow forecast this time yesterday. I foresaw the low sinking south and believe it will keep doing so. Hopefully im wrong and there is a big flip today!

 

I see the model thread has once again become southerly driven. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Ah the typical creation of a southern conversation as ever. 

 

I said this earlier in the week that we are more likely to become a cold and dry scenario and it seems as the low sinks further self on the 00z I cant see anything coming off for next week other than cold and dry. 

[Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24]

3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

No snow in the far south on the GFS 12z, so it must be an awful run for us all

Think us in Stoke and Staffs Moorlands would be happy here. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Not a fan of deep snow cover and severely cold temperatures?

@Nick123 I think models are converging on the pattern now - and it's a very good pattern given the activity to our South West. Obviously details and potential warm sectors very uncertain but the trend that is gathering pace is highly supportive of eventful and cold UK weather.

Where are you seeing "Deep Snow" the current cold forecast looks very dry and the models are the same. Predicting precipitation is useless, cold does not mean snow. 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Up down up down. 

[Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24]

40 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Time to get excited 

SNOWMAGEDDON haha

[Midlands regional discussion - Winter 23/24]

Cold seems to be the overall theme over the coming days. I am skeptical in regards to precipitation. Just being outside you can feel how dry the air is. Think about the tundra and just how cold it gets there but overall quite dry.

I am all for snowy weather but I cant see anything in the models showing anything other than cold or dry just yet. Saying that most snow events ive experienced have been known within a 24 hour timeframe at best. 

Nice to be back in our regional thread as also experiencing the typical southern bias of the model output and its hard to discuss or determine the various outputs when focus is on a particular small area when compared to the whole of the UK. 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Anyone else seeing the models do their typical pushback on these outcomes, particularly around the delivery of wintry precipitation. 

 

It seems we continue to only see the benefits of sustained cold out in FI only for it to be pushed back further. I am a fan of the cold weather, but bitterly cold and dry isnt very fun at all. 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Model Downgrades incoming as expected. Yet again too many got carried away with initial signs not understanding that yet again the models will flip or push the date out. Im holding no hope than a few days maybe of colder temps but nothing special as usual. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into 2024]

Alot of positivity in the model forums is a nice change. But I air with caution. How many times have we been here for things to suddenly revert back to mild output. 

So far the meaty stuff is still 7+ days away. Enjoy the cold lover output but enjoy with caution. Things can and will change of previous experience is to go by. 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

As this is a model discussion it would be nice to see discussion in the models and not the usual winter is over comments on one bad run. Nothing is ever set in stone until it happens. Some of the language is so negative lol

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

its as if the Robin knew I wanted a seasonal photo! Depth 13cm here in Alton Staffordshire. Had a lovely morning ina. Winter wonderland before it possibly gets washed away.

 

People talking of the possibility of more coming?? When is this showing in the models?

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

20 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Ah man. Wake up to see a load of rain coming in from the west on the radar and the next low now modelled further north. Winter wonderland won’t last long.

My forecast has gone from heavy rain to sleet on the met office. Would be nice if by some miracle we got more snow from this precipitation band... then I dont know if thats even possible lol

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

A beautiful winter winderland here this morning with 11cm of snow lying! An amazing result here in Alton - Staffordshire Moorlands. Forecast rain from 11am so out to enjoy it as much as possible!

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Just now, Don said:

You might do better Monday? 

Is it not nailed on for rain Monday? Or could our patch be expecting snow?

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Like Matt we are having some epic snowfall here in Alton Staffordshire. Same some of the best snowfall as in flakes etc ive seen for a while! Beautiful out there with 3cm coverage at the moment! 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Worth staying up for after all! 1cm and falling thick now. Alton - Staffordshire Moorlands 11:35pm

 

 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Question is do I go to bed or wait it out to see if we get some snowfall tonight! You guys in Longton and Meir seem to get snow when us in Alton dont get a flake haha 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

It is bizarre. Does anyone know the technicals around thebworking of the radar? Wonder if its up there but not falling? 

[Midlands Regional Weather Discussion]

Well the bands look to be merging abit. But then as everyone else seems to be seeingnincluding some in the NW forum... theres ni precipitation where radar is showing it... plenty of time to come and weve had a dusting here in Alton Staffordshire. So as a start to Winter today and the last few days has been lovely and seasonal!