Malarky
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Model discussion - hunt for cold Christmas period 2021
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
1. Expect nothing. 2. Look outside your window at 1 hour intervals on Boxing Day. 3. Be pleasantly surprised, or not. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Something I think I’ve noticed is that the lower resolution models, and ensembles, have been generally more on the side of a stronger block and cold scenarios, while the Ops have been more volatile. Perhaps some Ops have been overly sensitive to a particular phenomenon or combination of phenomenons over this period, and as the timer ticks down, their over compensation to it has less and less weight. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
There seems to be very little point analysing, well, anything at the moment! One of the most interesting periods of model watching this millennia. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Wow!!! Just wow!!! -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The pressure difference in the Atlantic low at 6 days away is quite something. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You mean the feature that is basically non existent on UKMO? Crazy this close. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thought Arpege was at least a not sure? Apologies if I’m a run behind. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
All hail the mighty UKMO! -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This will either be GEM's crowning achievement, or the beginning of a period of significant doubt in regards to its output. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Thanks for the sensible analysis and insights as usual, Nick. It’s always a shame to see posts that are quite blatantly written to antagonise or upset. Fortunately I don’t see many of them because of the wonderful ignore feature. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Do they buckle slowly, abruptly, or do they double down. Can't wait to find out. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
One thing is for sure... plenty of excitement still to come for those of us who enjoy the twists and turns. A few days ago we thought it was all over. Let's see where we are in 24/48 hrs. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Isn't this already a day and a half out of date? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
This is the most important comparison I’ve seen this morning. Trend couldn’t be more obvious. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just caught up. Wow guys and girls. This could be our year. If not Xmas day, soon after. Feeling optimistic after some great runs from GFS and UKMO, decent upgrade on MOGREPS and an ECM moving towards the others. What’s not to like, really? If you’re not happy, maybe you recently moved to Margate from Lapland? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Would be lovely to see some steady hands now from the GFS, UKMO, and GEM, guiding us into Christmas with minor upgrades while the EC argues with itself like grandpa on Christmas Day. Let’s hope there’s not one more twist in this tale. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
You don’t get these gold nuggets in the Express I can tell you! -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The weather has... stopped. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
COME ON! Who'd have thunk it? -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
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Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
We. Are. Still. In. This. Game!! -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
More runs needed. -
Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown
Malarky replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Can anyone comment on the GEM?