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Malarky

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Everything posted by Malarky

  1. 1. Expect nothing. 2. Look outside your window at 1 hour intervals on Boxing Day. 3. Be pleasantly surprised, or not.
  2. Something I think I’ve noticed is that the lower resolution models, and ensembles, have been generally more on the side of a stronger block and cold scenarios, while the Ops have been more volatile. Perhaps some Ops have been overly sensitive to a particular phenomenon or combination of phenomenons over this period, and as the timer ticks down, their over compensation to it has less and less weight.
  3. There seems to be very little point analysing, well, anything at the moment! One of the most interesting periods of model watching this millennia.
  4. The pressure difference in the Atlantic low at 6 days away is quite something.
  5. You mean the feature that is basically non existent on UKMO? Crazy this close.
  6. Thought Arpege was at least a not sure? Apologies if I’m a run behind.
  7. This will either be GEM's crowning achievement, or the beginning of a period of significant doubt in regards to its output.
  8. Thanks for the sensible analysis and insights as usual, Nick. It’s always a shame to see posts that are quite blatantly written to antagonise or upset. Fortunately I don’t see many of them because of the wonderful ignore feature.
  9. I’m not seeing enough exclamation marks considering the charts I’m seeing…
  10. Do they buckle slowly, abruptly, or do they double down. Can't wait to find out.
  11. One thing is for sure... plenty of excitement still to come for those of us who enjoy the twists and turns. A few days ago we thought it was all over. Let's see where we are in 24/48 hrs.
  12. This is the most important comparison I’ve seen this morning. Trend couldn’t be more obvious.
  13. Just caught up. Wow guys and girls. This could be our year. If not Xmas day, soon after. Feeling optimistic after some great runs from GFS and UKMO, decent upgrade on MOGREPS and an ECM moving towards the others. What’s not to like, really? If you’re not happy, maybe you recently moved to Margate from Lapland?
  14. Would be lovely to see some steady hands now from the GFS, UKMO, and GEM, guiding us into Christmas with minor upgrades while the EC argues with itself like grandpa on Christmas Day. Let’s hope there’s not one more twist in this tale.
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