Malarky

Low spinning on itself now out in the Atlantic instead of going across us.

Second low seems to be slightly further north and first low slightly further south. Could that indicate a different angle of attack? *Gets ruler out*

I am getting extremely excited by everything being posted. I need a wet flannel and a lie down.

Yet 10 miles East... Too early to pin down where/when the white stuff will fall.

This is still a possibility as the week goes on. Signs that Scandi isn't finished after this "aperetif" as well. Patience :)

Makes you feel a bit embarrassed yourself when you have people like Carinthian taking their time to analyse our weather from a different country, and then the knee jerk brigade sweep in.

Morning all. I've ducked in here to take shelter from the model thread for a bit. Some of them really embarrassing themselves this morning!

The blimp has stalled!

It'll definitely come in at some point...

Looks just like the snow graphic from the BBC video earlier.

Looking at the models, should we be concerned about those lows firing in from the Atlantic as the cold is only just starting to get going? Or is the consensus that they're being over blown?

Deep cold pool slightly closer to us on this run, stronger heights to the north, and deeper low in the atlantic?

Could someone point me towards the ignore button please?

I'll take that.

40% chance of a belting cold spell. 40% chance of a decent cold spell. 20% chance of sod all. That's where I'm at.

So as I understand it, we have 2 routes to cold and 1 route to mild. Cold route one, the limpet low sinks south and Iberia doesn't throw a crazy physics-defying low our way. Cold route two, the limpet low has some wheatabix and sticks around, drawing cold air in on the north flank and eventually let's the easterly flow in. Mild route, the limpet low is a good boy and sinks southward, but Iberia conjures up a bonkers low and the party's over. Or, a seagull does a poo in the Atlantic and it's game over. How am I doing?

If one model wasn't going to be on board, I guess we'd rather it be the GFS than the ECM? We were in the other boat only 24 hours ago. Progress. Keep your positive pants on. Says the guys with a degree in multimedia computing and nothing to do with meteorology.

Hi all, first post here after lurking throughout January. It's been a ride! My very rookie offering is to say that today's Metcheck 16-day forecast is the best it's looked all winter. Will be watching the models with you all, though I'll probably look like the dog-typing-on-a-computer meme by comparison.