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CentralSouthernSnow

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    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

    If they use the met office one then yes it only includes north east fringe of west country and wording says this -

    "Outbreaks of rain, sleet and snow, the latter mainly over hills, moving westwards across the area during Saturday night. This will lead to 1-4 cm of snow accumulating in places, mainly above 200-300 metres."

     

    That is a non event for the west country in my eyes.

    Met office have changed there 6-30 day outlook about 50 times in the last week. I wouldn’t even go by it, last week it was high pressure building to north of country and battle ground events. Hardly looking that way is it?  Are you talking about the channel low or tommrow? Because channel lows are unpredictable 

    • Like 1

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

    Veering out of the realms of model discussion into snow impact discussion so swivelling across here to continue this debate.

     

    Infrastructural issues caused by some of those temperatures would be damaging enough and take long enough to fix without people needing to wait for roads to be cleared to get to the affected outages. If my powers going to go out  due to frozen power lines etc I'd like it to be dry enough outside a) they can fix it sharpish and b) I can go out in it. 

    Fair enough! I like seeing extreme weather events packed with snow and those temps! Would be historic even if it lasted a couple days! 

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Frosty the Snowman said:

    Because it would be a level of deep cold not seen in the UK for many years over and extended period of time should that come off with such a strong Scandi High, trust me the last thing you would want with those synoptics is snowfall. 

    Ummm are you saying that to a coldie who loves snow how can you not want snow out of it?  of course I’d want snowfall it would be the first thing I’d want. It’s nothing shocking Canada temperatures are even more extreme then that..  but again people calling it BFTE... when really it’s just dry cold high pressure hardly exciting. 

    • Like 3

    Model thread discussion - cold spell looming

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Alderc said:

    Its very unusual to see such a correction northwards, however I'm already getting nervous that if it gets much further north it'll bring the warm sector into play and it'll be rain or freezing rain on the south coast. We ended up under freezing rain with the BFTE in March 18 after snow as uppers ended being on -1/-2C. 

    Infact the ICON lifts the uppers on the south coast to just -2C so already getting squeaky bum time, although the surface flow looks to remain east or just north of east so screams at the moment to be a snow to freezing rain event.  

    It would be all snow conductive.... uppers change closer to the time. If it came off it would deliver 3-7cm. Personally I think it won’t go too north, it will be middle ground. South coastal areas only. 

    • Like 1

    Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, matty40s said:

    I thought you were an expert looking at your disparaging remarks on the mod thread.

    GFS will always try to get the Atlantic back in until it is impossible, then follow in an over the top way the other models.

    Nond of the models know where the low will be yet, until how and when Storm Darcy moves away. It is pretty much now casting this next week for most of the precipitation.

    Expert? No I’m an amateur but it seems the models do really well or really bad. There’s not really a “best one” 

    South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by CentralSouthernSnow

    7 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

    GFS 18Z has the low on Tuesday just missing the majority of the southern coastal strip but clipping south-west Cornwall, hence the GFS's prediction of a couple of centimetres in the far south-west.  Thursday now has an area of light snow hitting a large part of Devon before the main band comes in, which is still predicted to bring rain to the south and west of this region, but snow for the north-east of the region.  In this run the mild air doesn't really penetrate far beyond the south-west, so I see that northern parts of Central S England are down as holding onto their lying snow for a while on this run.  I'd say the chances are growing that after the frontal attack on Thursday/Friday we may move into a cold and dry regime, rather than a mild and wet one.

    Why are you discounting icon and aspege? ..   you were very sure earlier on it was all going to France. Back tracking I see? 

    • Like 1
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