[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

The beast from the east Part 2 . 

Chasing 10 day+ FL charts again ..

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

56 minutes ago, mbrothers said:

Yes some realism is needed by some . Thursday was always looking like a change day . Not sure what the following week has to do with it . A two week freeze has never really been forecast.

Thursday has never been a change day? IF the low slid under it would’ve kept the uk cold longer.. 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

as usual everything has been watered down knew this Would happen 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

4 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Huge scatter on the GFS at 162 almost 17 degree range = GFS struggling to resolve the outcome...

It's probably it's biggest weakness. Atlantic being too progressive v a cold block, amplified by how cold the block and how big the low is.

I knew the GFS was having problems. That low isn’t going to blow up like that and I bet it shifts south... GFS is confused! 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah completely agree and its this micro scale abilities that make these my models of choice for streamers and showers. 

Excited for friday night and saturday mornings runs.

Yes the lack of instability keeps the flow cleaner, stops the formation of very small troughs in the flow cutting off the longevity of the easterly winds whilst we have just enough instability to create cloud tops capabale of proucing 75%/25% moderate snowfall but for a long period of time.

Dps being very low along with temperatured gives us a better moisture to snow ratio and even light showers will instantly stick

North midlands south yorkshire - 20-30cms

North east and North Yorkshire 20-30cms

Midlands and central southern england -20-30cms

South east and london - 30-40cms (due to a stalling front saturday night sunday morning)

All of this close of play tuesday with battleground snow to follow

Hmmm underwhelming really for south west. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Pub run has a classic snow event for many next Thursday night.️

Hopefully it keeps trending south... 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Lovely clean easterly flow Sunday to Monday, so showers should push through to the west:

Streamer potential! Much better run on the 18z for the short-term and moving towards the other models so hopefully no more dramas up to Tuesday?

Channel streamer? 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Icon 18z sticking with southerly track 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

5 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Yes, fully expecting the GFS to disgrace itself in the next hour and send us all to bed in a bad mood!

You never know! Gfs may back track tonight  pub run special! Seems to always back track when ECM is on board with it. 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

28 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

mettoffice saying we in firing line next week significant snow for are region as they regen the lies won’t push to far into country so you probably find be upgrades come near time for us  

Where did Met say “firing line” 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

6 minutes ago, Thundery wintry showers said:

Aye, the slider on Tuesday largely misses us (though some light precipitation shown for the SW to the north of it) and then a swift snow to rain event on Thursday.  However, only a minor revision south would put our region in the firing line and sometimes these setups do shift southwards as we get nearer the time.  I remember the unexpected South West snowfall of 31 January 2019 was forecast to be over the Midlands about 4-5 days before the event before being modelled further south with successive runs.

Have you not seen ecm? It’s just stalling and completely misses all of us 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, sunnijim said:

I would love that!

Unfortunately none of tonight's models come close to that scenario.

That said, there is just as much chance of the 'southern blizzard' scenario coming about after 168hrs as is anything we see offered tonight.

What am I saying? Clueless past 144hrs. Not a criticism of any model trying to get a handle on an unusual profile.

None of the models? GEM, gfs para, icon and met office going for a blizzard in south. 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

I want this ecm to be an outlier 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Well ECM isn’t the run we want

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

So we have 3 different models doing there own thing with this low. Jesus Christ 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

I think it’s corrupt, it can’t change that much over Greenland in 24 hours!! Computer malfunction maybe 

Surely it can’t just stall?

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM T96 compared with GEM:

Get in there, back of the net! 

Lows look like they’re moving in the right direction ready for Wednesday

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

 

To be fair though, the GFS has pretty much consistently shown the end of the cold-snap-that-hasn’t-started-yet next Thursday for a few runs now. There was a hint on the 0z of the low not being so deep and perhaps elongating and sliding under the block. 

So it’s not one run or any more of a shocker than it was yesterday at the same time. 

However as we all know the GFS has a tendency to overblow lows in the Atlantic and they often weaken as the timeframe gets closer, and if that happens I don’t fancy it pushing the cold away as easily. 

Intriguing ECM coming up!

Well it’s 4 models at the moment Vs Gfs 12 for the low next week. I personally think it will track south. Let’s see what ECM says! 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

1 minute ago, Frank Trough said:

while not making any predictions, if you were asked to name the major model most likely to be ramming the Atlantic through too enthusiastically you would pick the GFS.......so you never know!!! 

 

Gfs has performed poorly in the last week and the GFS is poor with lows and always blows them up. I’ll always go with Uk met or ecm 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

13 minutes ago, ptow said:

Only 0.5 to 1cm for most of the South on that run, but yes good for cold

Umm? 1cm for the south on that run? There was a whole snow storm are you joking?

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

So... UKMO and icon have the low tracking south which gives a massive dumping of snow!  GFS has it tracking north which would be ️Rain . Which will it be? Hopefully ECM backs UKmo 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

UKMO T120 is a wallop and t 144

Where’s that low going? 

[South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion Jan 2021 Onward]

Just now, MidnightSnow said:

Slight upgrades on both the ICON & GFS 12z. Both further west.

looking like it could give a couple CMs? 

[Model output discussion - deep cold inbound?]

3 minutes ago, icykev said:

The period of interest for me now is +144 late next week. Low pressure looking to make inroads deepening as it approaches UKMO 144

GEM looking to bring in the low pressure system @156

Causes severe weather and snow as it stalls and disrupts against the cold. Any thoughts on it possibly becoming a named storm, as by this time it will have already become dangerously cold. Similar to storm Emma in Feb 2018.

Resulting in this

Storm Emma 2018

Lets see what happens on the 12z✌❄

Not the low missing south west it needs to shift south more 

[Winter 2020/21 chat, ramps, moans and banter]

7 minutes ago, MJB said:

LOL ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,Christ knows why I typed that in ....................Dave lol 

'87 will certainly take some beating though , cold and snow wise