1947s coming
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Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
1947s coming replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Another battle coming later in the week between artic air and mild air . Where will the battle take place , the battle line could produce snow . It looks like some of Scotland could be in for a white Xmas can the cold air sink further south and a few surprises pop up. I see gfs now moving away from Greenland high a little just a blip, and is that q for ecm to start to pick up on it tonight . Still a few more twists and turns to come. It’s not exactly warm outside now feels like 3, which is certainly better than mild and damp in my opinion -
Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond
1947s coming replied to nick sussex's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Watch the ecm slowly move to what the gfs was showing now gfs definitely has done better with highs to the north west so it will be interesting to see the weather on the actual day . Just now on the tv a real battle coming up later in the week,between true artic air and mild air. confidence currently low on which will win -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Let’s see what the runs tonight say , then where we are come the end of the weekend.Can we have a flatter euro high and the cold pushing more south east , this is possibly going to go down to the last minute. It will certainly be interesting to see how far the mild air does get , and if the cold puts up more of a fight than what the models currently show. This isn’t normal conditions for the models and cold has been in place well over 14 days now . Let’s see if tonight runs can flatten the high to the south and push the cold more south and east a little -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes and most of the pv looks to the east that artic high could definitely start to push it towards us , possibly a nice north easterly, air feed from the pv -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep that’s definitely a big part of the jigsaw hopefully that trend grows as the week goes on allowing the cold to push further south. The low to the west is tilted down to, hopefully that could slide interesting viewing for sure -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep the artic high pushing the cold further south , which is also helping to flatten the euro high . Can a stronger high push for Greenland and possibly link with the artic high . The low to the west could just about slide to . Models definitely finding it difficult and not the usual set up , maybe Friday they might have a better idea . Will the cold air and block prove harder to move than first thought and just look at the pv -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Not far from a link up from the Greenland high and artic and cold air looks further south , and flattening the high to the south . I still don’t think this is sorted by a long way,can we start to see the lows slide I really don’t think the models can handle cold blocks to well and very possibly underestimating the cold in place . It certainly makes for interesting viewing, by Friday we might be a little more wiser -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So what’s to stop the models moving back to that ? And if they are underestimating the cold that could well be the case . Anything over Friday is fl in my opinion -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Nice to see we need to look at fl for mild weather still.The models are underestimating the cold to and soon they will start to show this more and more -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep definitely agree the cold is holding further south to and flattening the high to the south . Can we get more of a push towards Greenland and maybe a link to the artic high . I said yesterday about this and possibly a slider setting up , it would be nice if the low did slide . I don’t think this will be sorted until Fridays nights run, certainly good to see high pressures still to the north of us and the pv not looking to happy.The high to the south looking flatter hopefully the trend can continue. I still think the models are underestimating the cold that’s now been in place over 11 days,and this will start to be shown more as the week goes on -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
A swing back to cold the high to Greenland further east and the cold further south,flattening the ah and getting ready to set a slider up from the west.could the Greenland high try and link to the artic high While ever most of the pv is shown over to the east we are in the game . The run up to Christmas could certainly be interesting, and this mild breakdown could still just be a blip and possibly big snow maker . I think we will have a better idea by Friday nights runs -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So it’s looking like the models were underestimating the cold and it might just be a mild blip.Some higher north it might not effect at all , and actually be a snow maker hmm. I keep saying it but this is just like summer with the high pressures and record heat , the high pressures are just to the north now and could produce record cold in time.The pv doesn’t look it usual self, or in its normal home , while ever that continues we are in the game in my opinion. Fl I would say is still before the weekend, let’s see where we are by Friday nights runs and if there has been any more corrections south, which could then flatten the high to the south of us -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Low looks more negatively tilted now and possibly could slide on future runs.The ah looks more east can it head towards scandi and eventually a ridge to the west up to Greenland . I still think the models are getting rid of the cold to fast and are totally underestimating it -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So 6 days time is now nailed down? It wouldn’t surprise me if it’s a blink and miss the mild in the south . Let’s see what the ecm says and I still think the whole pattern will be future south and possibly east come the time. All models still how most of the pv over to the east to , leaving Greenland ripe for blocking and definitely not your usual winter set up -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Well the hunt for mild is still fl and don’t be surprised if there isn’t no real breakdown.The cold in my opinion is going to be harder to shift than the models think and we could soon see this start to play out on the models -
Not to sure will have to see still snow showing for this area and it went to 1 sign now back up to 4 . Plus we got 7 cm the other night which wasn’t forecast really, the cold is in place and surprises can pop up. Don’t be surprised if the models are underestimated the cold to and the low to the south gets weaker and starts to slide . I am not convinced the cold will be going especially for the north and possibly the mild air trying to come , could end up a snow maker
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Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yep definitely signs the cold is been underestimated and I think this week the models will start to show this more and everything could actually be future south. The high to the south is flatter and possibly heads for Greenland and the low starts to tilt negative and starts to slide .. what mild breakdown only time will tell certainly not a done deal at all.Can we see the push south continue in future runs plus the vortex doesn’t look to happy or in its normal winter place -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
So the end of the weekend and 6 days fl is now nailed on and guaranteed to happen is it ? I don’t think so once again as the time gets closer let’s see what the models show . In my opinion the cold air is been underestimated and some point this week the models will start to show this,and the whole lot will be further south. why would you want a pattern change? many places have seen snow , have snow on the ground now and had ice days and - double digits have be recorded, and we are only just starting winter really -
Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived
1947s coming replied to Community Team's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
That’s kind of timeframe is certainly fl and there could also be a big flip to keep the cold in place as the time gets closer. It wouldn’t surprise me if the models start to push everything future south closer to the time,ie the cold air and it’s harder to shift than what the models show currently. While ever there is hp to the north and most of the vortex is over to the east we are in the game . The high to the south could be flatter come the actual time and possibly back west and head for Greenland. I do think the cold in place will be currently underestimated by the models , and this will start to show through the weeks output -
Possibly looking good for some parts of Yorkshire again tonight, can it be 2 lucky hits . I still think fl is Wednesday latest and watch for short term development as the week goes on.The cold air might be harder to move than the models expect and it could also be further south. -4 and fog this morning snow frozen like a rock,possibly a ice day coming up to