Polar.

A sad update A man has died after his car was hit by a falling tree in Northern Ireland, as meteorological agencies issue warnings for strong winds. The incident occurred on the Dublin Road in Antrim.

The highest gust ever recorded in England E & NE was 107 mph, 17th December, 1979 at Lynemouth (Northumberland). I wonder was it a similar scenario to this? I can't find that chart. Unrelated but looking at the record gusts for each region I was surprised at NW England. 101mph is the maximum. Thought it would be higher. East Anglia has lowest record at 100mph. Scotland 142mph N Ireland 124mph Wales 124mph England 118mph

Emergency services have responded to a serious incident in Antrim this afternoon, after a tree fell on a car travelling on the Dublin Road in the town. It is understood that several people were trapped in the car. Crews from the Northern Ireland Fire and Rescue (NIFRS) have used specialist hydraulic equipment at the scene. Just a yellow warning in Northern Ireland. Think how many trees will be felled in the red area. Not worth driving.

If it was a category 1 hurricane hitting the US there would be wall to wall coverage.

UKMO looks very severe for Northern Ireland. A red warning if that comes off. Gusts over 100mph hitting the North Coast at the time stamp.

We went from looking at a great northerly, to it being continually pushed back, heights sinking further from Greenland, chasing wild goose after 10 days to finally a bit of scraps that might produce if everything is favourable and FI looking progressively worse. In other words, a standard affair.

Its all gone a bit fecal.

Hard for me to get excited about charts 8,9,10 days away. It keeps getting pushed back. The verification rate at that range is slim. And what a boring autumn. I'd be happy with some frosty weather throughout autumn but I'd rather a full on Atlantic onslaught with storms in autumn proper rather than a mundane autumn that does nothing. In winter I'd rather snow but if that's not to happen then storms keep my interest up. That sounds like hell to a lot if people but anything is better than months on end of mild,cloudy absolute nothingness IMO.

That's the only time icon or jma get mentioned lol.

In my experience wobbling usually leads to a head on collision with disappointment lol

Once bitten twice shy. We don't have much limbs left. The trend has been the high heading further south away from Greenland. And now it looks a bit meh and getting pushed out further in to FI. Even if ecm looks good later I'd have my reservations after the latest GFS/UKMO

Agree.

Half asleep. How are we looking? UKMO an an improvement on previous run? Cheers

Yes agreed. Slightly worried if it starts to trend east in the coming days. I mentioned the other day that was a concern. I've nothing to base that on other than seeing it happen countless times before. Overall a great run.

The post above referencing the warm sea temperatures moderating the cold. For example if the sea temperature was 12c off the coast and the -850 hPa was -8. What sort of temperature could we expect? I imagine wind speed would have a big impact on that. The faster the cold air travels down the less time for modification. The bigger the contrast in temperature may result in beefier/heavier showers lowering the snowline. I would expect thundersnow could occur if that day 9 chart verifies.

You could be snowed in...before you fly there.

Just wondering. Over the last 5 years, have verification stats from the big 3 models improved in winter time over the day 5 to day 10 period?

The fear I have is that the high stays too close and the cold plunge avoids us and impacts further East in to the continent. Not trying to be a negative Nancy just cautious especially at the range of time.

It would do the thicko deniers good though wouldn't it. Every time it snows its "proof" it isn't real afterall.

Sky news "'Disappointing' the UK hasn't signed up to alliance to phase out oil and gas production, charity says An alliance has been formed, led by Denmark and Costa Rica, by to help phase out the production of oil and gas - but the UK is not involved. Danish climate minister Dan Jorgensen says he hoped it would mark "the beginning of the end of oil and gas", adding that they were in conversations with other countries including Scotland. A UK government spokesperson says while the UK's reliance on fossil fuels "continues to fall", there will "continue to be ongoing but diminishing need for oil and gas over the coming years while we ramp up renewable energy capacity". But Oxfam's climate policy adviser Lyndsay Walsh said: "It is disappointing that the UK government has not signed up to this welcome initiative. "The UK may have led the way on committing to net zero emissions, but it must now address the epic contradiction of continuing to grant oil and gas licences in the North Sea." The core members are Denmark, Costa Rica, France, Ireland, Wales, Sweden, Greenland and Quebec, while Portugal, California and New Zealand are associate members and Italy is supporting it as a "friend". The core countries are committing to end new licensing for oil and gas exploration and setting an end date for their exploration, while associate members are taking other measures that contribute to aligning oil and gas production with globally agreed goals to limit dangerous warming."

Well if you never went outside because of a bit of wind and rain in November you'd be a hermit. There's a crazy invention called a coat.

I found a false widow in my bed the other night. Lucky I spotted it before I got in.

Did weather recordings begin there in 1950 or 1989? I see both mentioned on different articles I've read so I'm confused.

Obviously it didn't pass verification checks.