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High Altitude

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  1. High Altitude
    Hi JP I only post occassionally but am a regular visitor to this and the model thread and just wanted to send my best wishes for tomorrow. I enjoy reading your posts and appreciate the effort u put into them. I'm sure i speak for all on here with that and I will look forward to your return.
  2. High Altitude
    We did have the 'charts', in fact we had them periodically as far back as December. Unfortunately, what the charts depict and what we actually get are two different stories.
  3. High Altitude
    Just looked up the coldest ever temperature recorded in London and it was -21.1c. I would love to see what type of Synoptics would bring that to our neck of the woods and what they would look like on a chart.
  4. High Altitude
    Not to mention RJS snow hurricane in Jan..........
  5. High Altitude
    I would say a barrel half full sort of guy and on the assumption that barrel contains beer he has defo drunk the other half. Keep it up, it does make me laugh and we need that in here sometimes.
  6. High Altitude
    You got a pic.
  7. High Altitude
    I'm in the same neck of the old as you and although can confirm its snowing there's nothing settling here and certainly nothing to measure. At best have slush on cars. Temp dropped to 0 DP risen to 1
  8. High Altitude
    Very heavy snow. Temp 1.0 DP 0
  9. High Altitude
    I think that's what you call WAE.......Warm Air Erection. LMAO
  10. High Altitude
    Ha ha ha......that'll put the wind up ya
  11. High Altitude
    For me I'm not fussed either way about tomorrow night as even if it does snow it'll be gone Saturday so won't be able to enjoy it. I would rather get the milder weather in and look to the next cold spell.
  12. High Altitude
    Thank you for taking the time to provide thiis very interesting and informative reply. I do have a question though that I'd like to put out there. Are the models programmed with all the currently known variables that could affect the weather ie. SSW, MJO, GWO, Solar influence (Sun activity), NAO, AO etc etc so that whenever any of these variables change they are reflected in the next model runs output? Also, is a lack of data variables in some models/runs the reason for such wild differences in output and if so which model has the most variable input?
  13. High Altitude
    The irony however is that having said all of that they're still unable to forecast with any great degree of accuracy beyond 4 days at best. In the 1950's the accuracy was at 2 days. The question is, if you take away the computer model can a forecaster forecast. If they are presented with a chart at 12z today and asked to provide a forecast for 1,2,3 days ahead without the use of a computer can they do it. Half the people in here can interpret the models to provide a forecast and how many of those are expert mathematicians, physicists etc. All the lay person wants to know is will it be wet, warm, dry or cold, not be baffled with b******t. It's about the end product - an accurate weather forecast; from what I can see, all these advancements in technology, the sciences etc and for what...........to extend the forecasting accuracy by 2 days!
  14. High Altitude
    Really??? I'm not far from you and theres nish here. Not a bean. I'll keep you posted. Temp. 1.8c DP. -3c
  15. High Altitude
    Think i found Steve Murr.......... Chiono sent him up to get a temperature reading of the stratosphere!
  16. High Altitude
    . Temp. 1.6 DP. - 2 Still have lying snow but patchy as defo had a thaw on today. Here's hoping for a top up.....
  17. High Altitude
    I posted in the model thread yesterday about little differences early on in the model runs having huge implications to the rest of the run and this proves the point. This snowfall is 50-100 miles further east than expected. Now for example if you had the same model but one run starting with the front over Dorset and one with the front over London the outcome (although may start off similar) would be totally different.
  18. High Altitude
    DP probably about 1c but intensity of precipitation is pushing temps down putting you just on order line I would say.
  19. High Altitude
    Ha ha...hate that. I'm not much better off....running out to car for a rough estimate on temps.
  20. High Altitude
    Hi C, what is your temp and DP
  21. High Altitude
    Defiantly think your in the firing line. Just need temps and dew points to drop a bit. More specifically dew point to 0c or below.
  22. High Altitude
    That's true, but would the strength of that low not compensate for this and as opposed to being our precursor to mild actually be the trigger we need to sustain cold spell?
  23. High Altitude
    On iPad. Any suggestions much appreciated. Will try repost with direct links.
  24. High Altitude
    On face value these two charts have a similar looking pattern: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630108.gif 08 January 1963 http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/gfsimages/gfs.20130121/12/24/h500slp.png GFS 12z - 22 January 2013 However what interests me is the two low pressure systems on the GFS 12z coming across the Atlantic. Could these not promote WAA and reinforce our high as per the following days chart in 63: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630109.gif 09 January 1963 Leading to this 2 days later: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630111.gif 11 January 1963 And then: http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1963/Rrea00119630113.gif 13 January 1963 A big turn around in just 4 days (96hrs). My point being that small changes early on can have huge implications further upstream. Not giving up our cold spell yet.....
  25. High Altitude
    Still snowing here. 13 1/2 hrs now none stop.
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