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High Altitude

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Everything posted by High Altitude

  1. High Altitude
    So if the the BBC use the 12z data for late evening forecast then the 10:30 one will be a waste of time watching if the 18z are to be believed..
  2. High Altitude
    Look forward to it. One of the most respected posters on the forum. Any thoughts on bringing back the model tracker? Always looked forward to those.....but will always remember that Phantom beasterly that disappeared overnight at 48/72 hrs......think it was 2005? Lol (I can only but now).
  3. High Altitude
    Edit: with snow turning to rain! Cheers Peter Cockcroft.
  4. High Altitude
    Probably why he still has a gig and good old robs been ostracised. Watch out Fergie....
  5. High Altitude
    He doesn't exactly get me enthused either. Think he's a mildy.
  6. High Altitude
    Peter Cockroft just said less could and snow turning to rain for the weekend. Here we go again. I would be peed off to end up with a slushy mess.
  7. High Altitude
    We'll see. Not gonna lose sleep over it. A good 6/8 weeks left of winter, the cold is in place, troughs can crop up from nowhere, precipitation can intensify etc etc. Good luck to all.
  8. High Altitude
    0.9 DP. 0 We shall see. Colder now than it was this afternoon yet we got 4 hours of falling snow.
  9. High Altitude
    Temp. 1.8c DP. 1c
  10. High Altitude
    Current observation (Ruislip) Temp. 0.2 DP. - 1
  11. High Altitude
    Location: Ruislip, Middlesex Temp: 0.4 Dew Point: - 4 Clearing skies, occasional cloud. Current observations would defiantly support snow, however temps always tend to pick up with an approaching front so need temps to drop a bit more beforehand. Ideally around - 3/4 should do it.
  12. High Altitude
    From Tuesday onwards I would say is a given. Keen easterly promoting convection off the North Sea and pushing over the whole south east corner. At the moment tonight and tomorrow should bring some light snow over the region but exactly where is a bit hit and miss. Curtain twitching and radar watching is your best bet now. Many of us may be pleasantly surprised.......bands of precipitation can develop quite quickly and or intensify under a cold flow. Also in my experience the TV forecast always under play snow amounts so all in all plenty to look forward to forus in the SE. Might pop open some seasonal mulled wine and really get into the spirit of things :-).......now where did i put that cheesy christmas Cd.......lol
  13. High Altitude
    Thanks Chris for reply. I didn't notice that. Still much to learn but I'm sure I'll get there with the helpful guidance of you more knowledgable members.
  14. High Altitude
    Can someone confirm if that is the polar jet to the NE? Also it appears to have negative vorticity, would this be a result of the SSW causing the winds to reverse around the polar vortex?
  15. High Altitude
    If the EC is better with synoptics to the N/NE, is the GFS better with synoptics from the W/NW? This being the case what model would they go with if the EC is as it is but the GFS was going with these W/NW. Is one signal or model prevalent over the other if that makes sense or will it just depend on the background signals?
  16. High Altitude
    So often the GFS has been the only model to pick up on a cold signal and then slowly other models fall into line and pick up on the same trend only for the GFS to then drop it and we all scream outlier. Although this may be the case i've lost count of the times that it's been the first model to backtrack only for the others to follow suite. Having said that it normally goes from an ice age scenario at the height of its cold trend to a medieval warming type output in its next before finally settling on something inbetween - and for the UK this usally means a damp squib. Please don't be the case again. My emotions can't take much more of this!
  17. High Altitude
    Have to agree. That's what I want to see in a forecast. Detail, prognosis and clarity. With a touch of advisory caution aka 'get out of jail free card'.
  18. High Altitude
    Who would have ever thought the word warming could conjure up so much excitement in here!
  19. High Altitude
    Can anyone explain (to a keen learner) the excitement with this chart. Looks good if you live in Paris but to me we seem to be under a dry high pressure and slack flow. Is it because of potential and heights to north west or is that kink instability that will cause shower activity?
  20. High Altitude
    Thanks Bobby. I no this isn't the stat thread so just one final point mods if you don't mind. Is it not more likely that a SSW event will help to reinforce and or strengthen existing areas of high pressure rather than develop them for example the Siberian high? This being the case could a SSW on its own not be enough and rather there needs to be developing or developed areas of high pressure in the right place at the right time to take advantage of this down welling and influence our weather on the ground.
  21. High Altitude
    This is a good link. Thanks SM. It states that a major SSW occurs every 2 years so why do we not see significant cold periods or outbreaks every other year. Or if SSW is that much of an important factor for UK cold spells then at least every 4 years, especially as minor events according to the text are a seasonal occurrence. In the main the nineties was a relatively mild decade for the UK yet there must have been 4-5 major SSW events and countless minor. This being the case it appears that there is much more variance to the UK receiving cold and other overiding or equally relevant goings on up in the atmosphere must need to come into play at the same time in order for us to have a shot at cold. Question: Does a major SSW event gurantee a cold outbreak for somewhere in the northern hemisphere or are other variables at play here as well meaning that a SSW event is just a signal that enhances the probability of cold period but not the defining factor?
  22. High Altitude
    Between 72-96 the big 3 broadly have the same idea with lows tracking south and a ridge to the north. After this is FI however looking at the jet stream and on the same basis that + t96 is FI then I see a window of opportunity for the high to retrogress towards greenie as the jet slackens between 96-120. By this time we 'may' start to see the SSW starting to influence the pattern reinforcing this retrogression.
  23. High Altitude
    If and it's a big if, but if the winter fails to get going then this will teach me to view the background signals as more of a generic guide to the northern hemisphere pattern rather than a green light for guaranteed arctic excursions to our little island.
  24. High Altitude
    It would be good to have a chart drawn up like tick box with a list of all the background signals, their effects and how long any changes take to filter down. This way when we have the next cold spell modelled we can tick off the background signals and see whats in our favour. The list could start with the most influencing factor for the UK receiving cold and down to the least and highlighting any overiding factors. The example below is not exhaustive or in any particular order - i'm just trying to demonstrate an idea. What does everyone think? I'm not up to speed with all the factor and there effects so it may take me some time to complete but any suggestions or pointers would be appreciated? Cold weather Signal Time lag effect on weather downstream Favoured for cold 1. Jet Stream Southerly track months/weeks/days/hours Yes/No/Neutral 2. AO 3. NAO 4. Stratosphere 5. MJO 6. PDO 7. Solar Activity
  25. High Altitude
    Dave's seagulls Lol
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