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Everything posted by snowray
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Pretty clear cut really, these pesky Atlantic lows are simply too strong and thats why the initial easterly fails of course. What we wanted ideally is for these areas of LP to have been toned down a bit, but if anything they are a little stronger and further east. We never really recover our easterly afterwards as the high starts to sink and the easterly is thinking ok, stuff you I'm off!
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Just be interesting to see if the ECM operational stands out as an outlier or not within its ensemble suite. It may not be of course but there should a split, some going for more undercut, and some showing the Atlantic going over the top, I'm interested in seeing in which group the operational sits.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowray replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Please, please don't say anything to anyone......Kiss of death!! -
GFS ensembles for Holland, some members going -15, -17 uppers there, and that is the air that on a direct easterly would be heading straight for us, so you never know, GEM might be onto something after all. I would be interested to see exactly how these ensembles sit as compared to the ECM suite, in fact I suspect the ECM operational to be a big mild outlier.
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Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowray replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes its become a bit of a joke really, 18z very poor, more downgrades tomorrow I wonder? In fact its as bad as it can get now, so surely the only way is up. All eyes on the 00z then. -
Model Moans, Ramps and Banter
snowray replied to Polar Maritime's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Yes where can I view that forecast?