snowray
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Everything posted by snowray
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Yes, I dare say it has been depressing for everyone involved. An mild ECM run turned up, just one run amongst a sea of runs and charts all showing cold and snow for the foreseeable. The next day they were all slowly, but surely moving over to that ECM milder run, shocking. And up until then, the ECM performance has been quite frankly, rubbish!
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I don't think that snow will become rare everywhere in the UK in winter, remember that it snowed on higher ground November last year in Northern England. I think that the higher ground will still get snow, but at sea level it will get harder. Probably about above 150/200m place to be. And now that I have opened my trap I bet that we get heavy snow in March, but after all that ain't a winter month is it.
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Yes all over before its even started.
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What does it take to get some snow in a winter month in the SE these days I wonder, it can snow in March, or April, or November on an easterly, but here we are in early February with snizzle, drizzle, or nothing at all, just grey, its pathetic.
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Even the North Sea is normally full of snow when uppers are at or above -10c and DP below 0, I mean that warm front is not due until Saturday. All very strange indeed. -
Seems to stay mainly as rain/sleet in the east after all, latest Euro 4 has surprised me, thought it would have been all snow by this Thursday, look at them uppers.
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Well well well, what do we have here now..
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Ahh ok, thought I had missed it somewhere. The 18z Hirlam is another upgrade, showers turning wintry by tomorrow evening and some of them look like they will be a bit more than just "flurries", maybe super flurries.
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Is that the SM 10.30 post, can't see it anywhere.
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I think its playing catch up with the ECM. Colder run than the 12z.
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Well they seem to have included just about everything in that update including the kitchen sink. As for the ECM, I think it is worth just sticking with the operationals for now, it was indeed the 1st to spot the warming trend when everyone else was bullish cold. Same with GFS, it was an outlier for a long time when going for this cold spell remember, and operational run was right in the end of course.
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Well we have the next 5 or 6 days of eye candy for a start of course. Anyone notice the updated met office Uk Outlook for 12 Feb-21 Feb? States snow showers likely in the east, with a small chance of these becoming heavier. Also, It will feel very cold in the easterly wind. This was updated at 13.28 today and is for next week of course from Sunday 12th Feb, what are they seeing that we ain't for next week? mmm
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Yes but the Greenland high has been on the cards for some time now, in fact the ECM a cold run right out to the end, we get a couple of less cold days middle of next week, but by D8/9 the colder air is already moving south into northern Scotland. None of the milder uppers make it on this run so definitely not spring like I would think.
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I bet everyone will be saying what a wonderful model the ECM is now!
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Ohhh nooooo. Really? Thats terrible news there lassie. I saw sleet symbols on the Met Office site earlier but still think it should be ok for snow, if the PPN makes it inland that is. Anyway, nice D10 charts there from ECM.
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Yes Steve I was thinking ECM looked different, heres the D9 chart. Greenland high anyone?
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ECM doing its own thing again here.
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Looks like slightly milder sector moving in from the North Sea along with the PPN. That shouldn't really be there in this sort of set up, but it is. mmm
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Yes its going to feel bitter out on Saturday and a fair bit of snow around. I find the Hirlam to be a pretty good short term model, we can see here light snow showers moving inland this Thursday, this confirms the EURO 4 (06z), the 12z will be out soon btw and should be interesting. So this confirms a window of about 4 days in total for snowfall. EDIT: As in snowfall potential. We also have small amounts of settling snow on the Hirlam which is nice to see.
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Well there's the most recent Euro4 @ +T48...Showers certainly turning wintry from the off on Thursday morning it would seem. Edit: As I have said many times along with other posters on here, lets focus on this cold spell, at least its going to happen now and some if not most will see snowfall light, or heavy at times. As for FI, second waves, third waves, they may never happen. So have some fun now while it lasts.
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Yes I agree with you chicken soup, if you really sit down and think about what you just posted, it would drive you mad, mad, mad I tell you! Well at least we have our next carrot hanging there, the Greenland high, better than no carrot at all I guess.
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Yes, thanks be to the Lord, wave 2 on its way.
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Well at least Scotland will do ok out of the 06z. As for the rest of us, if it verifies, after a few flakes here and there just staying cold but not too cold. Uppers, start to go up on Sunday and stay above 0c, this is turning into one of the worst easterlies that I can remember. Maybe we can import some of that cold back up here from Greece?
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In any other past winter, yes 100% snow, but with recent winters being such a let down and GFS showing sleet for SE and E Anglia....well who can say. We have to get them cold uppers over the whole country not just the borders and Scotland!
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Big question, can the Greenland high start to dominate events from D10 onwards?
