snowray

A Mid March Beasterly of rare beauty there right at the end of the run. 48 hours of widespread settling snow.

OMG NO, you have got to be joking!!???

-8c would still be fine for mid/late march and into April too I would think, depends on other factors of course like how heavy the PPN is, evap cooling, etc... Late yesterday evening it snowed around the Manchester area with uppers a mere -4/-5c with the help of heavy PPN and a little evap cooling.

And then from D10, as is usual, a general agreement to things cooling down a fair bit. London and Manchester there.

Ok 0.1 out, but closest so I win, everyone else was way out.

I win, I win, I win 6.2c

Indeed. Also think your location will do very well for that snow.

Yes, Euro4 shows snowfall likely over a large swathe of NW England tomorrow night, mainly on slightly higher ground, where I would think that there could be some moderate falls of snow. Even our snow starved Oldham contingent might be lucky enough to get a covering.

Surely we are well overdue some upgrades for being so good this Winter? Still a long way off of course and at least the GEM is running with a similar idea.

Heres the GEM @ +T144 for comparison.

Some interesting charts this evening. ECM at T144, Scandi high? Very cold pool of air up there too.

5.6 please

As for monday night, well the euro4 model shows more than a little interest there for many of us.

I wonder what the chances are of getting a colder March than February? Could be interesting, if we knew where we stood now for Feb.

I would expect to see temps reaching 19/20c quite widely in the south of the UK if those charts verified. +10c uppers clipping the Southwest.

Yes story of this winter, always out at D10, sometimes D8 or D9, and then gone! Look at all that cold just to our east though at D10. You never know though we might get lucky this time, it was ECM that spoilt the last party if I remember correctly in early February, maybe this new one will be the real deal!

I'm feeling a bit more positive this evening for some March snowfall, ECM looking a lot better there.

I think that there might be a few surprises for a lucky few on Monday night and into Tuesday, could have some settling snow particularly on higher ground. Always remember the Birmingham snow in -3c uppers and the late October snowfall in the home counties only a few years ago. I love surprise snowfall its the best.

It seems to me that the jet stream is somehow more aggressive these days, the PV never seems to want to calm down and is omnipotent to our North West so HP does to get a chance to take hold up near Greenland in winter at any rate.

I don't think that it would have made much of a difference if the ECM run had verified in January or early in February, first week of March can produce the goods still without any problems but as usual when we do pick up an easterly or south easterly for that matter, the air to our east is not terribly cold so its the same old close but no cigar. Something that was showing up a few days ago was the Iceland High, this is what we want ideally with HP extending either west towards GL or east towards Scandi. I bet we do end up with the block in just the right place when its too late, like in late spring or early summer.

Rather strange that. Well its not just me thats been looking in the wrong places then.

Any updates, I can't find anything current but expect us to be up around 5.7 maybe a bit higher?

As for the rest of us, well the juicy charts from the other day have all but gone, as usual, so no surprises there. Maybe a glimmer of hope there from the ECM.

I think that there is interest in storm Doris even from the snow freaks that are regulars on here like me, could well be a fair bit of snow in fact on the northern flank of the low as it moves east, along with strong winds that will produce blizzards in places, mainly in Scotland and along the borders with difficult driving conditions on some of the higher routes.

Surprisingly very windy here and mainly cloudy.