snowray

Yes but next winter we will most probably fall for the D10 eye candy charts all over again, never learn because it takes all winter to learn the hard lesson that FI winter wonderland charts never verify, and then the rest of the year to forget this lesson, so come November time we come bouncing back like spring lambs to slaughter all over again.

I wouldn't trust any of them as far as I could throw them, apart from UKMO maybe to T120. 06z loving it there with its new easterly and cold rain at D10, no thanks, I am from now officially a warm weather freak, until next October anyway.

Never know, might be the start of a new late March trend.

And re-load right at the end of the run. I wonder what the chances are of getting a second half of March thats colder than the 1st half of the month, and colder than February too maybe? mm

Really? Its just been delayed slightly.......to D13! GFS turning rapidly into a junk model like NOGAPS used to me in my opinion.

How very true. I would not be in the slightest surprised if we get the Arctic plunge for Easter, I have known a fair few cold and snowy easters in April, so mark your diaries, Easter is 2nd week of April this year, good Friday around the 14th. Although If could choose I would certainly prefer a plume and a sunny mild easter so don't blame me if it does snow and we end up with a pile of slush.

Story of this winter, never any agreement, FI at around T120 if not earlier at times, in fact he models in winter months seem to have got worse to me over the years, not better. What a bloody waist of time and energy!

GFS looking a bit isolated though so far, here comes the all important ECM. Pretty well agreement on turning a lot colder mid march, ensembles for London & Sheffield there. Can GFS be that far off the mark?

Indeed. Anyway, some stunning charts turning up in FI from D10. What could possibly go wrong?

Yh, sorry there John, I should have said British Isles or UK. Anyway UK is about 243,000 km, Greece is just under 132,000 km. if we were to include the Irish republic as part of the British Isles that figure would be a lot higher of course. But then the Greeks may argue about Greater Greece and the Eastern Roman provinces of Byzantium, I think that some still lay claim to the city of Constantinople for example, now that is entirely another matter. Edit. Just noticed England on its own is smaller than Greece, 130,000 km. That has surprised me but thought it would be close. Spot the difference there at just D4 on the 12z.

Yes that is exactly my worry there PIT, and also concur with mcw's sentiments. Anyway 12z's starting to roll out, important output this.

Well the models certainly never make is easy for us here in the UK, like the poster from Greece said a few weeks ago, the cold and snow down there always verified at D7 out in some shape or form, no matter how much chopping and changing there was with the models, and Greece is a hell of a lot smaller than our little Island surrounded by a warm Atlantic, and its on the Med. With us, one small variable changes and its smell the coffee, all over. Yes I am still positive about mid March, just hoping that any cold plunge will be cold enough for snow that will at least settle and lay for a day away from the hills and mountains, that's what everyone wants to see, one last chance to get something decent out of the pretty pathetic 16/17 winter season.

My worry is the ECM & UKMO, I think that the GFS is still on the right track potentially for a cold northerly blast at some point, this afternoon and evenings runs will be very interesting. What I do NOT want to see is nice looking charts, and a Northerly/NEly but uppers of only -2/-5c and cold rain, I don't think that anyone wants that.

Indeedy. And look at all that snow by the end of the run.

ohhh dear, wheres our cold air going?

Yes I was just thinking that, 18z looking good so far so we could be nicely set up tonight for tomorrows runs and a continuation of this trend.

Well lets just say that with all the inconsistencies that we have seen between models this winter it would make a welcome change if they could agree just for once, and we are actually seeing things develop with this northerly at D7 which certainly makes a welcome changes from D9/10+!

The big three at +T192. No UKMO obviously. ECM coming on board but lagging behind the other two somewhat who develop the northerly more quickly. All singing from same hymn sheet though now.

Yes and 10/10 to GFS and GEM for sticking to their guns, ECM coming on board now.

Well at least the models are offering some sort of interest, be it a cold blast with some snow or a southerly plume and close to 20c temps, maybe bit of both.

Can we get the ECM on board later on I wonder with this sort of general pattern? Certainly a cold enough blast there.

I love you too GEM!

I'm happy to see some mild weather in March if it includes sunshine, we are lucky around this way in that we do rather well on the whole in getting the best of any spring like weather thats going. But if there is a blast of cold and snow, although I would prefer to see this turn up before mid march, it is always very welcome, it can still snow in the SE and therefore anywhere in the UK at lot later than March of course. April can in fact be very good out to about the 3rd week. Just for a change, Birmingham ensembles, not looking very mild to me.

I would laugh if this last chance saloon easterly actually verified in some shape or form. Got to laugh, even the high that looks like a certain sinker at T264 actually manages to retrogress back north to just the right place in good old GFS cyberspace. C.S. PM'd you.