snowray

Our cold blast has moved a few hundred miles further east it would seem on the 18z, could be quite mild by easter Monday now. Getting close to 20c on the south coast at this rate.

You don't mean at D10 there by any chance do you comet? In fact I think I'll book my trip down to Bournemouth after all for the Easter break, its looking pretty good on todays runs. UKMO best of all..

Central London hit 14c today, so thats a 11c drop. Just been out and about the last hour or so and although the wind feels cold its still very pleasant when the sun comes out. Don't think that it will be too bad in the SE the coming week either, chilly nights and mainly sunny days. Still no sign of any significant rainfall, but possibly turning colder and more unsettled by the weekend.

Once upon a time though Knocker, if you can remember that far back, northerlies occasionally verified from out at D7/8/9 and produced a decent arctic blast, maybe only 1 or 2 out of 10 but it did used to happen in the Dec-April period particularly when there was some sort of model and ensemble agreement. But in the last couple of years its been 0 out 10 and I have lost count of the number of times that a northerly has been showing up in that time frame, what signals do the models keep picking up for the D7-D10 range that are always wrong then? In fact everything is usually shifted many hundreds of miles to our east, surely there is a way of correcting these errors. Now I'm not complaining about not having a white Easter but a bit of convective weather could have made a change if it was going to turn colder anyway

Well talk about chopping and changing about, gone is the very cold northerly and we now have more of a cool northerly for Easter, still cold by night but some lovely sunny weather for many areas and temperatures not to bad by day, gone are the 6/8c's that were showing up yesterday in the Southern half of the country and in are the 11-14c's, particularly the further southwest you go. South coast will be the place to be over Easter. We would have all been pulling our hair out by now if this was a couple of months back, every single northerly blast that has shown up in the charts has been downgraded in the end, I have come to the conclusion now that there must be something seriously wrong with the models.

But don't we all just love a bit of weather drama!?

Hehe, the hot weather is getting yo me....APRIL!

UKMO looking possibly even better if you are liking the idea of a white Easter.

Indeed, and what a difference a week makes, even the SE gets some of the white stuff by next Sunday night on this run.

Did we hit 26c anywhere then? Turned breezy here now just got back from Erith pier but still very sunny and a mild wind that one might expect in mid summer, no doubt they were sunbathing in Skegness and Southend as if they were on the South of France today, they certainly were around here, south coast was cooler by the look of things. All change next week on the 12z, could do with some rain though.

25c just been hit in London & Heathrow. Been in out garden all day, bit wine, bit of bbq chicken, going down to the river in a bit...Make the most of it folks. 25c is not a bit though, its massive for early March!

Yes and in the meantime London's St James Park just hit 24c @ 1pm. I wonder what the reading will be on Easter Sunday a week from now, quite a contrast to come between 1st 10 days of April and the second 10 days. Of course there is still time for everything to get watered down as far as the cold shot and re-loads is concerned.

Yes nothing like Christmas, your right there. Well GFS is showing there, 0, -1, -2c pretty widely by the look of things. And any snow that does settle should stay put over night with clearing skies and them sort of temps. Certainly a chance of ice forming where there have been showers during the day.

We already have 22c at Heathrow and Kenley, wow never expected that high a temp at 12.00. Feeling very warm here feels like mid summer!

Damaging frosts by Monday night. Noooooo!

Will look more like what Christmas should be like by early Monday morning, widespread frost for many.

A white Easter for some in more northern areas on the 06z.

Wonderful weather, blue skies, ending on the highest temp of the year so far today, 24c, maybe 25c some are saying. Payback time though next week and over Easter with colder weather looking likely, but I suspect that it won't be too bad in our neck of the woods. Be sometime before we hit 24/25c again though so make the most of it today.

Yes there will be more chopping and changing to come no doubt. Its interesting though that the GFS control is in agreement with the operational at T192. All eyes on the ECM I guess.

21c in London confirmed @ St James Park and Northolt, so my call of 19-21c temps for today was correct. Whats all this about then at D8 then? Cold Easter back on is it?

Well once again the GFS, and Met Office too have been too low with their temp forecasts for today going for only 15-17c a couple of days ago. As I expected we are way higher with wall to wall sunshine and temps widely 18-20c all the way up to Yorkshire. So can we get up to 23c tomorrow then, I think so, 24c not so likely but maybe somewhere in the East/Southeast will get close.

I still think that they are underestimating temps for both Saturday and Sunday by 2-3c, in the SE and EA anyway.

ECM rock solid with its output at T144 continuing the trend from its 00 run. UKMO keeping up with events. GFS doing its own thing again. UKMO seems to be the halfway house there.

So 3rd warmest March it is then.

Darkcloud. I was thinking the same thing about this D10 business, I know that its to far out for any accurate forecasting purposes but the charts have shown colder/wintry weather, particularly from GFS, so many times at around D10 and then they are just dropped. There has even been virtually full agreement on the ensembles at times too, we saw this also with the ECM around mid winter, and yet there has not even been a trend to colder weather, they have all been wrong, wrong, wrong, never any upgrades for cold, and we at best have ended up with the dregs of any cold shot. Anyway, lets enjoy the good weather later this week, Sunday still looking very mild, the cloud thats coming in may spoil things though further west. GFS probably underestimating temps again there.