snowray
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Posts posted by snowray
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reef From these silly high levels I always thought that just a 5 day "average" cold snap could reduce the CET by 1c, one week of "deeper cold" by 1.5/2c.
Can't see even the 1c drop happening now.
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Even this late Feb cold snap looks feeble, may upgrade, but historically speaking there has been more cold air to larch onto in April/May with the set up that is showing.
So depressing that it's just going to be more wet and cold rain for most of us. I had expectations of something a bit more seasonal for the 2nd half of the month, not more rain, so we are going from mild rain to cold rain... when will it end?
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We are getting all the rain that some of which would "normally" have gone into Southern Europe in winter, hence a deluge for us and drought conditions in places in Europe. Unfortunately, the indomitable Azores/African highs more northerly position hold the pattern in place for most of Winter.
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weatherforducks Thanks for that. Seems to be under "climate"... now, what a nightmare to find it.
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BlueSkies_do_I_see Yes we are too high now, any cold spell would have to be rather extreme for us to go under 7c, possible with some severe frosts, but not likely.
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weatherforducks Thanks WFD. I was sure somewhere hit 18c yesterday.
BTW, do you have link where I can find official max/min temps at Met office, cheers.
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Does anyone know what yesterdays max temperature was in the UK, I saw 17c for Heathrow and a few other locations up into the Midlands.
I can't see anything on the Met Office site for max temps yesterday, it's not what it used to be, the web site does not update half the time.
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Indeed, up we go again.
Although from these high CET levels, just 5 days of cold weather, not Ice days, just frosty nights and colder day max temps would produce a drop of around 1c.
Still a chance of this at the end of the month.
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So we could possibly be looking at a very mild 1st half and a cold 2nd half of them month.
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Are we going backwards now, to the 5th... I presume that should be to the 7th?
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Might have to change this but for now I'm thinking mild, so 6.2c and 73mm please.
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I'm a bit confused, is today's update to the 17th or 18th?
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Heavy looking showery PPN just NE of Norwich moving south, is it snowing up that way?
With these low temps and dew points would have been a winter wonderland this morning in the SE if we had got some of that snow inland yesterday.
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PPN, if it's snow or rain we will never find out since it's all in the English Channel again, like the previous lot, just that it's moving in the opposite direction.
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10 minutes ago, weirpig said:
Looks like the worst for the south east will be Monday. Very high winds according to icon and gfs
Yes, and I'm sure weirpig that lot won't stick all day at 5 miles out in the English Channel, hugging the coast line all the way from Cornwall!
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5 minutes ago, snowrye said:
Well, isn't that just the ultimate carrot dangler, how the weather gods must be laughing their socks off. You can bet your life, that if this set up was with warmer temperatures, and the weatherman said, there's a system going through the channel, that may produce some rain, for the south east. It would move north by 75 miles, and be a complete washout.
No doubt about it, if it was just plain old rain, it would be a washout today!
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Just now, sunnijim said:
This boat is sailing through snow
As others on here were saying, should have taken a boat out today, would have been fun, just 5 or so miles out to sea should have been enough, could have nicked a bit of that French and Belgian snow and taken it back to the UK as a bit of booty like the old smugglers!
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3 minutes ago, Freeze said:
This Is like a sick joke from the weather, that is literally 20-30 miles from an epic snowstorm. I missed last Mondays snow as I was out the country, sods law
Yes its truly remarkable, it just stays out at sea hugging the whole of the south coast and moving eastwards, no pivot either going on.
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2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
It looks further north by about 50 miles over the western channel. However I’m not sure if that’s a real nudge north or just because the system is a little quicker than progged so it gives the perception of being further north when compared with T +0 forecast.
Yes, maybe it's just moving in quicker.
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13 minutes ago, Darkcloud said:
Thanks Snowray, fingers crossed for us all!
Temp has now risen from -3.2°C to 1.3°C! Wonder if that's cloud cover? My mum always says temp rises when it's going to snow!
Yes it's the cloud moving in pretty fast now.
By the way, this evenings 18z runs are showing mainly near misses again, although radar is further north and Met Office for now remain on board for this snow in the far SE from late morning tomorrow roughly.
Nowcasting from now on.
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Has anyone noticed that the PPN on the radar looks is a lot further north?
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2 minutes ago, GadgetWeatherFreak said:
Currently 3.5C here in Lydd and rising
Same here, temps rising as cloud moves in, pretty well all cloudy now.
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Heavy snow symbols just gone up for both Eastbourne and Hastings.
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1 minute ago, sunnijim said:
Met office app for my area now forecasting light snow all day tomorrow.
First time it has shown this on the 1900 update.
Evening models definitely upgrading the risk, the ones met office pay attention to anyway.
Good news. It was starting to look better earlier on, so I'm thinking now, have we snatches victory from the jaws of defeat? For down here anyway?
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Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Omnipresent Azores high back to it's usual winter location, up it comes, game over.
I often ask myself, how on earth can a block/northern blocking ever set up in any favourable position for sustained UK cold, even if teleconnections/AO/NAO/PNA and of course SSW's are looking red hot when we see this same pattern year in year out in our winters? Yes some of the time, but surely not always these days. I know there has been a lot of discussion in the past with regards to the Azores high being so far north and west in winter, maybe it is our default pattern to an extent, but much of Western Europe has had hardly any snow, or rain, yet again this year even in mountain areas like in Northern Italy, it's not just our little island.
All very strange if you ask me.