snowray
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Posts posted by snowray
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Here is the updated ICON 15z, much better for the SE coast, even some settling snow. Could we squeeze another say, 10 miles north I wonder?
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The latest Met Office 'deep dive' video mentioned a chance of 1/2cm in the SE tomorrow.
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UKMO 12z.
Here are our snow flurries right along the SE coastline.
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4 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
That is the mean though, probably helped along by this perturbation going a bit crazy lmao
Ahh, I see what you mean, clear outlier.
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19 minutes ago, Mcconnor8 said:
UKV trying to give us last minute hope
Also, has anyone noticed the French Met Office model, PEARP?
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1 hour ago, East Kent Snow Desert said:
I guess there's no signs of a stall and pivot across the south east corner now as I think one or two of the models were suggesting this last night.
We have a slight pivot on the ICON 12z, a fraction further north again, hardly noticeable but at least its not moved south.
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Them showers just clipping corning coast are way ahead of schedule, could be a good omen.
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9 minutes ago, throwoff said:
Sadly I think this is well and truly written off I am afraid. If anything it now seems to be tracking further south. I think the arctic system from the north has had a bit more power than expected and that has pushed it further south.
I think your probably right there in that it will miss most of us.
Just about still worth keeping an eye on though, now the ICON 09z has also shifted things back north and is clipping the far SE.
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1 minute ago, throwoff said:
For 100 Miles of difference we have lost out.
Heartbreaking.
Maybe it could still shift a bit further north, I mean 20/30 miles further inland would include a fairly large chunk of Kent and Sussex, 50 miles and it's not far from South London.
I'd be happy with just a 20 mile shift north from an IMBY perspective.
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UKMO 06z has the PPN just clipping the south coast again, quite strange since its always shown it way to the south.
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9 minutes ago, Challock Weather said:
I believe Euro Tunnel have day trip offers currently
Maybe not such a bright idea.
You can imagine the headlines..
"Thousands stranded as Eurostar cancelled due to blizzards hitting northern France".
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23 minutes ago, TheGate said:
I checked the France Meteo website and the Nord Pas-de-Calais is under a snow warning, whereas everything to the South is under a freezing rain/snow warning. The description states that some areas will start as snow, switch to freezing rain, then back to snow. For the Pas-De-Calais, they are estimating up to 20cm of snow, as it will stay as all snow. Sounds like it could be a real travel mess.
100 Miles north...and it could have been us!
Day trip to Calais anyone?
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Just now, throwoff said:
So close we can taste it!
Indeed, what a nightmare!
As long as we don't see any shifts south in the next 24 hours or so, I think that some places could still get lucky, tomorrow evenings radar will be the one to watch.
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Just posted this chart on the MAD thread, big move from the Arome French model, about 50/60 miles further north, it had shown the PPN consistently way to the south of us. I imagine they are keeping a close eye on this feature across the channel, possible big snow for northern France and Benelux.
10 minutes ago, Eagle Eye said:Would be incredibly ironic if this hits wouldn't it?
Yes it would, vileness!
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24 minutes ago, throwoff said:
Well despite all my confidence a few hours ago the 06Z GFS has shot down the tracking north. It has massively corrected it back down south.
I think we can call this one another 'close but no cigar'
It's still not over and done with yet, the Arome has moved the PPN about 50/60 miles north on its 06z run. Up until now it had been way to the south, similar to UKMO.
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2 minutes ago, Shaunado said:
My carer's car thermometer was showing -6C this morning. A lovely crisp sunny day. That snow on Wednesday looks tantalisingly close. Stick your tongue out at Eastbourne and perhaps you will catch a flake on it!
PPN on ICON slightly further north again on Wednesday, right along the south coast.
You gave me an idea, there's a pretty long pier at Eastbourne, and there's a pub right at the end of the pier, I might be tempted!
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Still got light snow here, not settling though.
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2 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:
Yes I am surprised actually that some areas got as much as they have . Great to see.
if that channel streamer had moved just a few miles north we would have been in the honey pot here on the south coast, no such luck.
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Heavy snow and possible blizzards today from the streamer that was very close to us here over the channel but barely ever even clipped the coast, a few flakes, praise the lord, were blown this way from the sea and miraculously made landfall, tried to settle for a while down by the De la Warr on the sea front.
Now who was it that said yesterday that we should have hired a boat?
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Zero here, as expected.
Anyway it's early yet, some rather heavy showers now forming out east from the Thames estuary, could get interesting soon for some areas as they move inland, anyway fingers crossed.
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29 minutes ago, BLS said:
I tend to agree I am kind of confused as to why I’ve seen some online (not here) saying kent could see up to 5cm tomorrow
Bearsted used to be one of the honey pots in Kent back in the 80's for snow, I think it was Jan 87 that my old boss who lived there was completely snowed in for almost a week and couldn't make it in to work in London, he was a short man, I remember him saying he could not see over the snow drifts in his back garden.
Tomorrow should be a lot colder than today so can't see us reaching them dizzy heights of 4/5c again.
Upper temps today were around -6c, tomorrow -10c, -11c, -12c
Dew points today were 2c on the coast and about 0c, possibly -1c in places max, tomorrow -3c, -4c, -5c.
Should make a big difference, I think some places will see 2/3cm maybe a bit more. Any bookies around to start a competition, Tom?
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3 minutes ago, colonelks said:
We’re at 750ft, highest point is 900ft! Never fails to amaze me when we drive down to somewhere much lower how much less (if any!) snow there is.
My father in law is in Crowborough and they also do well.
Wow, that's close to 250 meters, really high up for the SE, not surprised you do so well for snow.
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1 minute ago, colonelks said:
We’re in a little village on top of the North Downs, really hoping that we see some snow tomorrow. Met Office has us down for a few hours of heavy snow…
We typically do well in these types of setup.
Any altitude is always a big plus of course, how high up are you there?
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SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on
in SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion
Posted · Edited by snowray
I take it your in Bodle street green at the moment not Norfolk. Your within the envelope of the most recent updates, if the PPN does indeed make landfall, your location being inland at 60m asl is going to be an advantage maybe compared to us on the coast should things turn a bit marginal down here. Fingers crossed.