snowray
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Posts posted by snowray
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22 minutes ago, danm said:
I don’t think anyone has said snow can’t fall from the sky in March or April with uppers at less than -10c. Ofcourse it can. But for real cold and substantial, laying snow that sticks around you typically do need that deep cold, usually sub -10c uppers imported. Even then, you need persistent cloud cover to prevent sublimation/melt.
Well there are many factors to take into consideration of course, also early March as compared to April will make a massive difference, and whereabouts in the UK, Scottish mountains or Cornish beaches. For most low lying land, particularly in the Midlands and south, it usually makes very little difference after around mid March, even 6 foot drifts will melt relatively quickly even after a hard frost once the sun comes out, although as you say, a cloudy day might keep the snow from melting for a while longer.
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6 hours ago, winterof79 said:
The question was wether we can get snow with less than -10 uppers and the answer i gave was yes.No mention of wether we need embedded cold.Your inventing an argument about something I didn't state.
Nobody mentioned anything about the initial plunge needing to be present first that was you.
It can and has snowed and layed in March with less than -10 uppers thats fact.
Also many other factors
Cheers.
J
It has also snowed in April with uppers less than -10c.
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6 minutes ago, prolongedSnowLover said:
Gonna be in Norway skiing in that cold
Too cold
, Algeria might be better though for a snow fix, although I notice that Morocco misses out this time.
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Just now, Don said:
A 2018 repeat was always highly unlikely though. Something akin to March 2008, however, is more realistic.
Look at all that lovely cold air in the east, just imagine if it had our name written on it, could easily be another 2018, we are still in the ssw lottery remember with our lucky ticket.
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Here we go, about time! D12
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12 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:
Makes me think to myself, is it easier to catch a wild goose I wonder, or get a memorable dumping of snow in Bexhill on Sea?
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What gets my goat is that we never, ever, and I mean NEVER get near term upgrades, this easterly is so ridiculously close it's almost insulting!
And Northern Italy has been forecast that heavy snow all week, no downgrades there, like Greece, a mere speck on the global map, but they always get their snow too, no near misses for the Greeks....Ever!
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06z ensembles don't look too bad to me, hopefully we will start to see more runs like the control turning up in the next few days and things firming up a bit more for the first half of March.
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8 minutes ago, NewEra21 said:
That's why I don't get why some are getting carried away, it's going to take very cold 850s as we enter March to see something truly worthwhile.
And besides the odd rogue run, we're barely breaking the -10 850s threshold.
I would love a truly cold spell like the 2018 BFTE, but I'm honestly just not seeing it, yet anyway.
Hell this weekends 850s are basically just as cold, if not colder than what's showing in a few weeks time.
That's true, in fact I'm surprised that there are not more snow showers/flurries being forecast this weekend, at least for the SE, -8/-9c uppers by Sunday for a while.
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12 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Day 9 mean much improved too
Yes and this is a lot better too, 06z control at D10.
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3 minutes ago, Purga said:
Going for a repeat of history - The Great Blizzard of March
18912023 to please the SW brigade.
The Great Blizzard of March 1891 - Historic UK
WWW.HISTORIC-UK.COMOne of the greatest storms of all time hit the west of England on 9th March 1891, bringing with it severe gales, heavy snow and freezing temperatures...
There was still snow on Dartmoor in JUNE!! Wow factor, repeat of this sort of event must surely be due after over 100 years, who knows maybe this year.
Lets face it, this could be the last big ramp of the season if March flops then that will be it, all over, so might as well make the most of it.
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13 minutes ago, topo said:
Seems an outlier according to the ensembles at 192hrs... Most go towards ECM ensemble path
For where is it an outlier? Main action has not started yet at T192.
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5 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:
And another dumping just for luck . What a run
OMG
, pure filth!
This looks like a slider too right at the end of the run, historic early March coming up?
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6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
South of the m4 contingent will be happy with this!
Makes a blinking change!
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Ens for Londres, still quite a large spread but the trend is clear, also we can see snow chances all the way through to the end of the run, don't see that often for London.
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16 minutes ago, Rayth said:
Only thing i will say regarding this is , you'll learn through time on here who to take notice of and who to 'Ignore'
Lassie is an old timer on here Ray, I think you will find he's (might be a They, or an It, though) a lot wiser than he likes to make out!
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- Popular Post
- Popular Post
There are usually fine margins in the UK, will it be cold enough for snow we often ask, will the cold air just clip the east coast of the country, or end up in the Atlantic. If you consider that London to Bristol is a mere 100 miles or so as the crow flies, on a global scale that's nothing, but in the UK it is often small margins that make a big difference. Take for example the current set up, after downgrading the toppler, and the easterly we are now seeing upgrades, forget the 100 miles, 50 miles or less could mean the difference between more dry/cold weather or snow showers in the east and south, yes as usual fine margins indeed....
As for early March, well no fine margins there. I think we are about to find out just how cold it can get in March in the UK.
Question now is, will it be snow for many or just a few, hopefully the majority on here will get their snow fix soon enough.
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18 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
50p each way is about as far as I would want to go!
06z much better run, so was yesterdays if I remember right, we have our starter from the initial cold easterly, now here comes the main course that we have all been waiting for from the NE.
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14 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:
Oh for peats sake I been sitting here reading down grade, high over us, thought people were talking about in march, the high has mostly been over us for this week, a few runs had it slightly north with easterly after the north shot, but it was never the majority out come, plus it's probably not fully decided yet anyway.
It was in fact the UKMO a couple of day's back that was the most bullish in respects of the northerly and most of the models showed it on and off, I guess it had a 50/50 chance. Problem being that we miss the 1st bite quite often, and the 2nd, now we are looking at past D10 again, also the ens are showing a wide spread into March, unfortunately it's not by any means a done deal that we will get a direct hit at some point next month, hopefully we will and the SSW plays it's part in events. It just seems to me that there is always the risk of more near misses, the dregs and the frustration of intense cold but dry, if this should be the case I prefer a Mild March with some pleasant Spring sunshine.
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4 minutes ago, Lukesluckybunch said:
we just cant seem to gather momentum or any consistency...always a setback it seems when there is a sniff of cold on the horizon
Thursdays toppler, FAIL.
The cold/mild/cold/mild easterly, FAIL.
Early March anyone?
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4 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:
ICON massively upgrades the northerly . Interesting could this be the day the upgrades come thick and fast
This is very positive, we are so used to seeing downgrades to the extent that it seems almost impossible to get any short term upgrades most of the time, and next week was looking like another lost cause. But at times features that we see out in FI can move into the more reliable time frame in just one run or two, not saying this will happen on this occasion but I have noticed this in the past where we have had decent winter set ups.
Pity ICON only goes out to T120, looks like a very decent northerly here veering NEly as the LP moves south and HP into Iceland. All eyes on the GFS now.
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ICON goes from zero to hero!
Now this is in the reliable time frame at T114, may not have to wait much longer after all.
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Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
And even faster in April of course, in fact I have seen snow falling quite a few times in April, but it has always been all gone by the afternoon. This is around London and the SE though, can't account for other areas.