Rain All Night

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 26 Apr (day 7) ...oh, balls. How very disappointing... 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 4 May (day 15) That miserable trough from the east looks like it's going to move west and attack us head-on in the latter part of next week. It's not then clear whether the Azores high will be in a position to spare us from the trough subsequently establishing itself on the Atlantic side. That's how I'm seeing it, anyway.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 25 Apr (day 7) GFS persists with its mini-beast. 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 3 May (day 15) GEFS shows something mildly threatening in the Atlantic right out at the end of week 2, but ECM does not. GEFS also seems to want the eastern trough in the nearer timeframe to cause us more misery than ECM does.

12z deterministic runs, out to Wed 24 Apr (day 7) GFS can do one 12z ensemble means, out to Thu 2 May (day 15)

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 24 Apr (day 7) Harmony up to day 7 from the models this morning. There will be a cold pool sliding under the southeast during the first part of next week. 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 2 May (day 15) The northeasterly flow looks like it will continue for quite a while. Not quite clear yet whether the Atlantic heights are going to endure into the beginning of May.

12z deterministic runs, out to Tue 23 Apr (day 7) ECM machine learning model - yes please! GFS - no thank you! 12z ensemble means, out to Wed 1 May (day 15) Wow, it looks like we will be under a reversed, initially northeasterly flow from the middle of next week through to the end of the month. That's not going to bring the warm conditions I've been hoping for, but at least it's something interesting. I don't remember the last time the UK experienced a northeasterly flow. Does anybody know when it was?

0z deterministic runs, out to Tue 23 Apr (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Wed 1 May (day 15) GEFS diverges early (day 6) by sending low pressure over the top of our high from west to east, and then again subsequently by not sending as much high pressure north-westwards as the other two models do. Incidentally though, this doesn't make a whole lot of difference to the prognosis for us: a warm(er) settled weekend followed by a change to cooler conditions not of Atlantic origin. We're not quite yet at the point where we can gain much insight into how the month is going to end, but I suspect we're not too far off.

12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 22 Apr (day 7) Most of the (modest) shenanigans we've seen over the past 36 hours ago have disappeared now. Fine weather for all throughout next weekend looks to be the most likely scenario. 12z ensemble means, out to Tue 30 Apr (day 15) Interestingly, it looks like the pattern will lapse into something cooler again by the end of next week, but without any Atlantic influence (contrary to this morning's GEFS runs). I don't have time to wait for the full ECM ensemble to come out, so the abridged version will have to do. It goes just about far enough out to show the appearance of a cold trough to our east, supporting the GEFS and GEM ensembles.

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Mon 22 Apr (day 7) Three of these are showing ICON's little easterly now, including ECM. GFS 6z has a different take: 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Tue 30 Apr (day 15) GEFS 0z wants to take the high northwest, and then the GEFS 6z wants to take it really northwest - too far northwest, look what happens after.

12z ensemble means, out to Mon 29 Apr (day 15) Is that some kind of trough-type-thing developing just to our east later on? It looks as though the high may ultimately move back out west, but seemingly not northwest.

12z deterministic runs, out to Sun 21 Apr (day 7) ECM machine learning model continues its rebellion, and ICON goes for an easterly... otherwise, beautiful charts for next Sunday!

0z deterministic runs, out to Sun 21 Apr (day 7) The ECM AI model shows the UK high coming under threat from an Icelandic system next Sunday, but it stands alone. All of the other models display splendid frames for next weekend, especially further west. 0z ensemble means, out to Mon 29 Apr (day 15) You can see that perhaps towards the last days of April, beyond day 10, some member runs in these ensemble suites may be showing outcomes where the blocking breaks down.

Mike Poole Cambrian Great posts from you both, thank you. @Cambrian It's noteworthy that the outlook is finally good enough that you don't need to resort to any of your wonderful humour!

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 20th Apr (day 7) GFS showing some interest in retrogression of the high later, in line with its ensemble mean below. 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 28th Apr (day 15) GEFS seems more keen on the high eventually moving northwest than the other two models. All three agree that the Atlantic will be steadfastly blocked right through to the end of the month. Been a long time since we've been able to say that!

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 19th Apr (day 7) Our current short spell of warmth from the south will be followed by a few westerly and then northwesterly days before the Atlantic anticyclone takes over during next week. I wonder if there's any chance of colder air from the east making it underneath the high? 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 27th Apr (day 15) ECM wants to keep the good times (if maybe not the warmest times) rolling right through to the last weekend of April and perhaps longer still. GEFS seems a teensy bit less sure towards the end.

12z deterministic runs, out to Thu 18th Apr (day 7) High levels of model agreement at the moment. Our high won't be the biggest ever, at least not at first, but it is ever so wanted and will be ever so loved. 12z ensemble means, out to Fri 26th Apr (day 15) After the end of the deterministic runs, the ensemble means show the high seeming to swell and migrate northwards or northwestwards. There's no end in sight to the party by the end of day 15.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 18th Apr (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 26th Apr (day 15) It looks as though the ECM had it right in suggesting that the high will sit just to our west at first. Later on the high currently seems more likely to be heading northwest than northeast, so we may need to rely on sunshine if we want to feel some warmth. The forecasts have been and still are showing thick cloud here today but it's brightening up considerably as I type this... hopefully this improvement will endure throughout the day...

12z deterministic runs, out to Wed 17th Apr (day 7) 12z ensemble means, out to Thu 25th Apr (day 15) My concise and balanced review of these charts, particularly from Friday 19th onwards, would be: YAAAAAYYY!!!

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 17th Apr (day 7) The return to westerly and then northwesterly flows from Saturday to around the middle of next week appears to be but a blip... 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 25th Apr (day 15) ...the ECM still tries to avoid moving the Atlantic high over the UK, but by Friday 19th it has relented, and from then on, on all three models we see the start of something potentially beautiful, at long flipping last, with signs of anticyclones and reversed flows over the UK out until the end of these runs.

12z deterministic runs, out to Mon 15th Apr (day 7) Do you notice how the UK never really escapes those tighter isobars throughout the whole of these runs? 12z ensemble means, out to Tue 23rd Apr (day 15) ECM still doesn't want to let the Atlantic high move over us, but it's nonetheless looking good for 'spring' beyond that.

0z/6z deterministic runs, out to Mon 15th Apr (day 7) Once we've got the nasty little low out of the way today and tomorrow, we get our long-awaited pressure rise from the south, peaking on Friday. Conditions look pleasant for me down here on that day, though it seems that wind will remain a feature. It's not clear yet how chilly the subsequent northwesterly might be, and on the GEM it even looks like it could have a stormy flavour to it. Possibly a storm for the Azores propping up the Atlantic high. 0z/6z ensemble means, out to Tue 23rd Apr (day 15) The Atlantic ridge looks as though it could sink down through the UK (though on ECM it stays to our west), which might provide some further settled weather (or chilly if it stays west). Interestingly, all three models currently see significant, though at this stage non-specific, height rises in our region into the final third of April.

0z deterministic runs, out to Sat 13th (day 7) 0z ensemble means, out to Sun 21st (day 15) Gotta head out and don't have time to wait for the full ECM ensemble to load, so the first 10 days will have to do...

0z deterministic runs, out to Fri 12th (day 7) The best of the more settled weather now looks like it will be at the end of next week rather than mid-week. 0z ensemble means, out to Sat 20th (day 15) Let's hope ECM is wearing its "best model" hat today, as it's offering an appealing sequence of events to come: the Azores high extension we've already been expecting, followed by an Atlantic ridge approaching and initially sending a chilly northwesterly over us before the ridge moves directly over the UK, followed then by suggestion of further heightened activity from the Azores high. GEFS is not in concordance from the Atlantic ridge onwards (at least not on the 0z run - the 6z run is looking rather better). Edit: Here's that better-looking GEFS 6z run.

0z deterministic runs, out to Thu 11th (day 7) Keeping an eye out for any signs of the Azores high failing to push as far over Britain as expected. 0z ensemble means, out to Fri 19th (day 15) After the Azores high recedes, ECM is keen on ridging coming in from the west which would cool us back down again, GEFS doesn't show this but develops ridging over the UK in deep FI.

12z deterministic runs, out to Wed 10th (day 7) The semi-reliable period of our deterministic runs ends this afternoon on the first day of our anticipated upcoming settled spell. UKMO again wants to make this spell appear more anticyclonic for the UK than any of the other models. Before we get there, though, we may have to endure the passage of a rather nasty-looking low pressure system on Monday and Tuesday. 12z ensemble means, out to Thu 18th (day 15) Happily, the ensemble means all agree on mild and settled conditions spreading from the south between Wednesday and Saturday next week. After that, the signals diverge, but none of them are suggesting a return to a deep Atlantic trough.

0z deterministic runs, out to Wed 10th (day 15) I've dug deep looking for another run that looks like the UKMO, but have come up short. 0z ensemble means, out to Thu 18th (day 15) The second half of next week still looks decent, and it appears we have some prospect of not falling straight back into an Atlantic trough situation afterwards.