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CoventryWeather

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Everything posted by CoventryWeather

  1. CoventryWeather
    The GFS now has some secondary lows developing in a very unstable airmass. I would suggest other models to starting developing some of these- might bring some more organised snow further south.
  2. CoventryWeather
    Not as high as the ECM though. Largely unsupported by other model suites apart from it's only ensembles. I still wouldn't worry about any mild weather, think the cold weather is likely in any situation.
  3. CoventryWeather
    Met Office Ensembles have no support for the ECM OP run.
  4. CoventryWeather
    The ECM has biases for over-doing the Atlantic, just like many models. They are struggling with the heights over Greenland / Scandi, so they skip to an easier solution.. Models are struggling, so don't worry. The cold spell is still the most likely solution.
  5. CoventryWeather
    Unsure why everyone is complaining. It's just one OP run... Can change again with runs later and tomorrow.
  6. CoventryWeather
    I would say there will be disturbances in that flow, models struggle to pick these up in the mid term, so we will look at them about a day before. The UKV and FAX charts have slowly got to the Northerly flow, so will be interesting to see convergence and occluded fronts in the flow- there will be some around at times.
  7. CoventryWeather
    I know it's probably too early to talk about snowfall, but are the models under-estimating the showers coming off the North Sea? Seems rather quiet if you ask me, if you consider sea temps. Probably one that we'll need the short range models to sort out.
  8. CoventryWeather
    Wouldn't mind some small disturbances next week, like the GFS is showing. Would have thought there would be a small surface low somewhere across the south.
  9. CoventryWeather
    Still wondering if any low-lying areas will see some snow this weekend. The models showing a colder airmass this morning for this weekend. Might be an outside chance of catching the odd flake in the heaviest shower.
  10. CoventryWeather
    Models do struggle with the upper air temperatures a week or so out, so they might be under-estimating the colder air to the east, and over-estimating the warmer air to the south. I do think that the cooler air will win out, and leave a pattern similar of the UKMO, with a longer lasting easterly. Looking forward to what models bring next - will we see some agreement towards either the GEM or UKMO on the 00z suite? Let's see.
  11. CoventryWeather
    Not worried by tonight's GFS. Seems like modelling is still struggling somewhat with the Atlantic Troughs next week. With an interesting GEM output tonight, it shows the mid term is far from solved yet.
  12. CoventryWeather
    Just had a look at the charts, and I'm starting to think models are looking at bringing a spell if cold weather rather than a snap. Could this December be one to remember? Just need some consistency and reliability now.
  13. CoventryWeather
    Happy to say I'm learning quite a bit from people on here. I don't know all the scientific evidence into weather, but hopefully get some knowledge before university in a year or so. Always love these times when runs go from one extreme to the other in a few hours. Makes weather much more enjoyable to watch.
  14. CoventryWeather
    Don't know why everyone is stressing with the GFS output. Models will flip and change per run - they aren't going to get the pattern right first time. Like above, it struggles with trough disruption.. so don't worry, we would expect these runs to come at times.
  15. CoventryWeather
    Nothing too concerning on the GFS OP and para this late evening. Shows the uncertainties regards PV and blocking. Reliable really only a few days out - probably 72 / 96 hours at best.
  16. CoventryWeather
    Surprised that it's that similar. Apart from that deep low near Greenland..
  17. CoventryWeather
    Interesting ridge coming out of America on this run. Wonder where they will end up?
  18. CoventryWeather
    Pretty much Atlantic Troughs. No real sign of anything cold. If anything cold this month, it's coming towards the latter part, maybe the last week. I prefer the cold in December and January to be fair.
  19. CoventryWeather
    Recent ECM zonal winds are interesting mid Dec. Not going to add my opinion, but some signs are appearing again for a weaker than usual vortex.
  20. CoventryWeather
    Does this mean that the risk of a Greenland high is greater towards the latter part of the month, potentially similar to those shown on the GEFS / GFS p model this morning?
  21. CoventryWeather
    Still limited consistency in GFS tonight. ECM and UKMO will swap around too, as models look for a mid-ground solution. Keeping to my opinion from earlier, I still feel any cold spell will come around the last week of November, currently days 10-14 on the modelling.
  22. CoventryWeather
    Looking at the GEFS this morning, there are a few ensembles showing a Greenland high taking control near to days 10 until the end of the run. In my opinion, I'd say this is the pattern that I would expect to be seen over the next few days from the GFS. Probably follows the longer range Met Office as well.
  23. CoventryWeather
    Had a few rumbles here in Coventry from a heavy downpour just now.
  24. CoventryWeather
    That would be nice. Proper home-grown storms possible?
  25. CoventryWeather
    Channel coming alive now. I don't really think there will be lightning just yet though. Nope, there's some south of Salcombe area
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