[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

38 minutes ago, johncam said:

Sorry not seeing it to be honest latest Met has us at max 9c min 6c both sat and sun and sw winds and cloudy 

Met office and bbc have already substantially reduced Fridays temps in last couple of days. Could be seeing the potential

[Last time had a foot or more of snow from a single fall?]

9 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Back then, I was in Milton Keynes... It was bloody fantastic!

I wish MC had falls like that. Honestly 2 inches is good for us. Think we had quite a bit in the December. Was at college that year. Only around 4 inches though. Ace for Manc though

[Last time had a foot or more of snow from a single fall?]

13 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

For me, January and February 2001, January 1982 and February 1979... Any time before then, I was a lot shorter than I am now!

I believe Jan 82 was a stonker in Suffolk. Jealous

[Last time had a foot or more of snow from a single fall?]

I lived in Huddersfield between 91 and 98. In Jan 95 there was a famous one. 40 cm in Leeds and 50 cm in Huddersfield. The m62 was frightening driving home

[Last time had a foot or more of snow from a single fall?]

On 14/01/2023 at 09:55, Alexis said:

Feb 96, Jan 2001 and Jan 2010 are the three major snowfalls I can remember. Seems like we only get one a decade!

I don't remember Jan 2001. Was it the one that built up over the week from easterly showers? 

[Last time had a foot or more of snow from a single fall?]

13 minutes ago, Scuba steve said:

96 we had 12 inches plus from 30 hours of snow 

Amazing! Strangely Manc had 6 inches in Jan that year but wasn't the one you remember. Think the event you mention was a west lancs affair

[Last time had a foot or more of snow from a single fall?]

I don't think Manchester has ever had a foot from one fall or a build. 63 had 9 inches in Wythenshawe recorded and 6 inches in MC centre. Can't find anything for 47 but may have done then. I remember 5 inches Jan 79, Jan 96 (bizarrely from an Easterly) and Jan 2010. None of then ever quite hit 6 inches. I live 5 miles out of Manchester 50 metres

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

2 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Yeah between 10 and 12 inches. Absolutely amazing evening. 8 hours constant heavy snow never seen anything like it before and don't know when I will again. Who says Irish Sea can't deliver if things are right.

Mate in Lpool kept calling me. We got 3 inches from it dint thunk it went much further east

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

I was wondering if anyone remembers a week around the end of 2000 where we kept getting snow showers. Never anything spectacular but levels kept building bit by bit. Am sure they were easterly. Didn't melt through week either. 

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

2 hours ago, Weather-history said:

FAX chart for that night of 4th/5th January 2010 had a trough across the Liverpool-Manchester corridor. I think it was basically a streamer. Read the archive reports from that night recently and showers were constantly streaming in from the Irish Sea. 

 

The late January 1996 easterly produced the heaviest snow showers that I could remember for an easterly. By dawn, the next morning it was basically continuous snow. 

Its great isn't it when Manchester has a good snow event. Very rare but when they come makes it all the more fun. I'm nearly 60 and can't remember any snow as a kid in early 70s. 70 to76 were poor years for snow apparently. The best snow events as a teenager for me were 79 and 81. Think 2010 was best in my lifetime though. Always makes me laugh when people from Manchester wax lyrical about all the snowy years when they were kids. Nostalgia out of control! When I talk to people in their 20s they're already saying that it always snowed when they were kids. In reality they remember 2009/ 10 and the following December.  That December was the most memorable for me for bitter temps. Actually thought 2021 was good for Manc. 3 or 4 good snowfalls

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

49 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Oh absolutely. Once you’re 100m+ up in the eastern parts of Greater Manchester you’re in a different world to Trafford, City centre etc. 

At some point I’d love to see a proper frontal snow event that gives us an amazing deep sustained snowfall but they are so so rare here. 

I remember in 2018 driving home from work and it hammered with snow for a couple of hours. 3 inches in stockport. Rang a mate in Sale which is 5 miles further west and they had barely a couple of centimetres. The Easterly snow (am sure it was Easterly then) just about got as far as stockport. Good one for us

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

17 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

I remember well the 4th/5th January 2010 perhaps for slightly different reasons than many of you. It went like this in Crosby:
In the evening around 3°C with heavy rain and sleet showers.
Convection becoming more vigorous towards midnight with heavy hail/ graupel and several rumbles of thunder after 11. Almost constant graupel and sleet for a few hours after that and more rumbles of thunder in the early hours.
A 1 cm covering of slush was evident on the way to school at 9 am. Just after I got to school it started to snow and continued light to moderate all day until I was back home again. Had about 2 inches. It seems like that was hardly anything compared to what the rest of the region got; the curse of the coast. Still, we made up for it the following December with 12 inches. 

Will always remember 4th/5th Jan more for the vigorous convection rather than the snow. Had more snow the previous week the day before Christmas Eve when got about 4 inches from a southerly tracking low. 

Yes Lpool had brilliant snow in December 10 didn't it. Manc got about 3 inches early evening on 17th I think

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

Ive always thought the 96 snow was an easterly. It makes total sense now. Am pretty sure it must have been that event. Learning loads on here. I love it and thanks for explaining. Hope Manchester gets some snow this week. Will have to be colder I think

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

10 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

I didn’t know Manchester had so much snow in December 1962! 

There was a front moving down from the north in Jan 2010 but as Kevin said it was Irish Sea showers that formed the bulk of the snow in the early hours . A slack very cold westerly. 

I didn't know that! It makes sense as they seem to be our best snow events. Always think a couple of inches is a good one for Manchester. It's always on a knife edge for Manchester though isnt it. Only powder snow I remember was 2018. Couldn't make a snowman

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

23 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Same! 
 

It’s so rare to get significant, ridiculous snowfalls in Greater Manchester (away from the hills), simply because we tend to struggle in an easterly. 
 

We do get a fair few light to moderate ones though. 
 

The nearest I’ve seen to snowmageddon is January 2010. I doubt I’ll ever see any deeper snow than that here for the rest of my days. 

I think from memory the Jan 10 event in Manchester came from a northerly but unusually came south across the UK with a massive low. It was the same in Dec 62. The only easterly that bought a lot of snow that I can remember was I think 1996 in the Jan or Feb. We had 5 inches then. Dec 62 in manc  centre was 6 inches and 9 inches in places out of the centre. Its rare though and always was

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

3 hours ago, Chesil View said:

That may depend on location Rob and how we measure bog standard.

At my location a cold spell without an Ice day is bog standard as far as I'm concerned.  I get days with single figure max temps most bog standard cold spells and most winters to honest.

The Dec 22 cold spell was certainly no beast. 

I see what you mean, yes. It was good for Manchester with very low mins. Unusual for where I live. A beast would be nice wouldn't it!!

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

4 hours ago, Alexis said:

You need to watch Carol Kirkwood. Tiny Scottish hamlets get the focus!

I've often seen decent snowfall in Manchester when it wasn't mentioned at all in BBC

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

31 minutes ago, Chesil View said:

You make an Interesting point Andy but I can't help but notice that the period you quote of 1962 -87  is prior to the latest undoubted bout of warming.   Hence the feeling amongst some is that for substantial deep cold  (as opposed to just bog standard chilliness) to be advected towards the UK. That an Ssw seems to be required as opposed to just helpful tropospheric set ups. 

You also quote the beast from the east as happening in a troposhere predisposed to cold but in truth that winter was running out of steam rapidly until yhe late Jan ssw kicked of the beast.

My feeling is that bog standard chilly spells such as early Dec 22 and the up coming week are still troposphericallly on the cards but for deep deep old fashion winter cold.  Ssw's are likely to become increasingly required.

The 7 day cold spell in December was 4 to 5 below average. Definitely not a bog standard chilli spell

[Northwest Weather Discussion]

6 hours ago, Dark Horse said:

We didn't get much snow in December here, just one very light cover but for me it was still a very enjoyable couple of weeks as it was for others if you scroll through the pages here given how persistent the cold was, temps were at or below -10C across a large swathe of the NW on a couple of nights. That's pretty notable really for this country before the solstice and was absent from the 1997-2008 period bar the 4 day freeze in late December 2000. Other nights across that fortnight it was often below -5C. Had a big chunk of ice days too when it never rose above zero, the cold spell was longer in duration than the BFTE in 2018 but that gave a hell of a lot more snow here.

It really was notable wasn't it. 7 to 10 day cold spells are unusual for the UK. Even in 79 and 2009 10 it flipped from mild to cold though they were very cold winters overall. The only times I remember longer cold spells were Feb 86 and December 2010 which were exceptional

[January 2023 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests]

4.6 for me!

[Model Output Discussion - New Year and Beyond]

Looks like December will end up being officially a cold month. Probs 1.2 below average with mean temp 3.4. Think coldest since 2010! Mild first week of Jan and then lots to play for going further into winter by the looks of the models. I still think the Atlantic will quieten down again as we've seen through the year. Doesn't necessarily mean cold but better chances than normal. Here's hoping!

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:

I think over a 10 day period this December it was around 5 below average.  I think that's quite unusual for the UK. 2010 was very snowy and cold overall but flipped from cold to mild and back to cold through the period. Similar to 78/79.  Overall they were of course very cold winters but don't happen very often. Here's hoping for another one soon!!

Apologies, was thinking of 2009/10 winter. Yes Dec 2010 was very cold almost through the whole month. It was the second coldest December ever recorded though! Once in a generation stuff 

[Winter 2022/23 - Moans, Ramps & Chat]

44 minutes ago, Weather Enthusiast91 said:

In my opinion, the recent cold spell was nothing like the one we had in December 2010. That spell 12 years ago was exceptional with some record low temps and prolonged heavy snowfall, whereas the one just gone was just an ordinary cold snap in winter which was cold but not exceptionally so. Though after quite a mild/warm year, I suppose this recent spell did come as a bit of a shock.

I think over a 10 day period this December it was around 5 below average.  I think that's quite unusual for the UK. 2010 was very snowy and cold overall but flipped from cold to mild and back to cold through the period. Similar to 78/79.  Overall they were of course very cold winters but don't happen very often. Here's hoping for another one soon!!

[Model Output Discussion - Christmas week and beyond]

The latest met update and net weather monthly very encouraging! BBC are stalling their latest monthly. Makes sense given the difficulties the models are facing! Do feel the models are moving to a cold spell (yes, not just a snap)! Dec could well end up with an average in the 2's or dare I say it maybe even the 1,s! Am loving every minute!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Having only joined the forum a few days ago, can I say what a pleasure it is to be reading and now joining in with the discussions. I love reading the posts from the guys with an amazing knowledge of the science in the models which I really want to learn from. Also love the romance of 'just maybe' when a fab gfs chart gets me up early with a spring in my step. It does seem to me though that with medium term model output, unless there is cross model support for cold, we can often be disappointed. That said, it's clearly not a 'typical' year and I remain very hopeful of some memorable cold spells this winter. Fingers very much crossed!