[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Looks like all to play for! Best December I remember since 2010

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

15 minutes ago, Cold Winter Night said:

Usually in this time of the year the Tropospheric Polar Vortex (TPV) has no problems gaining speed and firing endless trains of depressions across the Atlantic, but indeed it has been very quiet on that front.

If that remains so, that increases opportunities for Atlantic ridges and Greenland Highs to form and bring cold Northerlies or Northeasterlies to us.

However, if such a High is placed too far Northwest, as it seems to happen next week (hence all the nervous posts in here), there could still be a Westerly flow in our area Southeast of that High.

Another thing is a High over Scandinavia/Norwegian Sea/Iceland. Such a High actually fares well with a firm TPV over NE-Canada/West Greenland, because that would draw up warm air (Warm Air Advection, WAA) 'feeding' the High.

So, the absence of a strong Atlantic does not necessarily equal cold weather, but it certainly keeps the hope alive for model watchers!

Thanks for such a great explanation. I guess its fingers crossed!

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

Just joined the forum and like most of us I chase the cold each year and am often frustrated with the outcomes! My knowledge is basic when it comes to model analysis but learning all the time from all the great posts. A few people have mentioned the fact that the Atlantic has been relatively quiet for a long period other than a couple of weeks late autumn. Could this suggest that cold weather may be a recurring feature through the winter months??