Rob 79812010
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Posts posted by Rob 79812010
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12 minutes ago, Frigid said:
Same thing for mid January 2021, went from 10C to 0C in a matter of hours and at least a few inches fell. Completely out of nowhere.
It was supposed to be sunny today, but it's been snowing since 1. That feature well north than they expected.
Yeah, it's those brief but have snow showers that pop up from the Irish Sea. They're definitely a friend of Manchesters and seem to happen more now
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11 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
I think for us NW people, a few centimetres and maybe a few inches higher up. I've seen this all my life from Atlantic lows moving NE. West Yorkshire will get battered. The only snow events at a low level here that get more than a couple of inches I don't think are from this type of system. Am gonna stick my neck on the line but here goes: Feb 96 6 inches was a true easterly and that was unusual. Jan 2010 6 inches from a Northerly depression. The 6 inches 79 am not sure . We had 4 inches in 2018 and that was from a true easterly. Other than that its only ever a couple of inches max. Mind you, could be a first!!!
Think West Lancs had a massive event in Jan 96 and certainly Liverpool in 2010. We're they westerlys hitting cold air??
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I think for us NW people, a few centimetres and maybe a few inches higher up. I've seen this all my life from Atlantic lows moving NE. West Yorkshire will get battered. The only snow events at a low level here that get more than a couple of inches I don't think are from this type of system. Am gonna stick my neck on the line but here goes: Feb 96 6 inches was a true easterly and that was unusual. Jan 2010 6 inches from a Northerly depression. The 6 inches 79 am not sure . We had 4 inches in 2018 and that was from a true easterly. Other than that its only ever a couple of inches max. Mind you, could be a first!!!
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11 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Agreed.
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Getting heavier in Stockport. Still not settling. More optimistic for tomorrow
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12 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Heavy small snowflakes blowing around in a mini blizzard. Signs of slight settling on some surfaces now as the Sun sinks.
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31 minutes ago, Chris.R said:
Wind goes anti-clockwise around low pressure so if you are north of low centre wind will be from the east if you are west of the centre from the north etc. Generally surface wind will always be 90° to the left of direction of fronts.
Thanks for that Chris!
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Was wondering if anyone could explain something for me, something Ive noticed before. The weather system Thursday and Friday appears to move SW to NE but is showing easterly, north easterly winds. Its like the weather system is moving against the wind direction Presumably, because the winds aren't south-westerly it gives us the chance of some good snow as well
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11 minutes ago, snowrye said:
It's turned into a, will it snow in my backyard forum
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15 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:
They lived on one of those Victorian narrow terraced streets, which in all probability doesn't really cause snow to drift all that much, this area was knocked down and been made into another housing estate. Snow is much more likely to drift a lot near to open places/fields.
Yeah, never drifts where I am. Good to know and thanks
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27 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
It could do - MCR City Centre and S MCR suburbs aren't snowy locations but places with elevation like Oldham to it's East and Tameside are. MCR City Centre, S Manchester & NE Cheshire tends to do well in a Dec 2009 & 5th Jan 2010 setup that buried much of Manchester, Stockport etc... in a ft of snow where here in S Cheshire we got roughly only 5-10cm of snow it's swings and roundabouts and the NW is a strange place when it comes to snow when you compare it to other regions.
It really is isn't it!
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24 minutes ago, Maz said:
The "rain shadow" is the impact of air rising up windward slopes, cooling, being able to hold less moisture and it raining (or snowing). When that same air descends the other side of the hills, it warms, can hold more moisure, and its dry(er). In our normal Westerlies that is why W side of Pennines is much wetter than the E side. Reverse the winds and W side, i.e. Manchester is dry(er). The Pennines are pretty small though, so it is no where near as stark as with bigger mountains (east and west of Canadian rockies for example)
Thanks for that and it does explain a lot! Can I be a real pain as there's another thing I've noticed before and seem to be seeing it again on the forecasts it's the frontal systems moving sw to ne but showing se winds. Almost seems to contradict itself. Anything to do with undercutting perhaps??
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18 minutes ago, Dark Horse said:
At one point my mum said it was up to the downstairs window sill in the Collyhurst part of Manchester in 62-63, that's at least 18 inches probably more. My dad was hardly at work that Winter due to the cement freezing, he was a brickie now very much retired. Even the city centre got 8 inches in Jan 2010. You must have been pretty unlucky to have not seen even more than that in the suburbs.
That's amazing! Just a thought though, could it have drifted to that height? I've read archive that said in 63 it was 6 inches in centre and 9 inches in Wythenshawe. Am wondering if that data was based on the single snowfall on the boxing day. Because it froze I guess there could have been accumulating snow with further falls. In Jan 10 I measured the snow from the epic fall in Stockport and was almost 6 inches here
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22 minutes ago, Joe Snow said:
Feet firmly on ground as when it comes to snow and NW England something is bound to go wrong!
Snow shadow effect over Gtr MCR and East Cheshire does concern me slightly too but I think many of us will see snow, some of us a lot of it as it stands.
We got to be realistic. However cold, however snowy the rest of the country is, however deep the snow is in Yorkshire, if Manc gets 3 inches it would be a result. 3 times in my 60 years we've had 6 inches of snow. 63 exceptional with 9 inches in Manc suburbs bit before my time. I think I'm right that even in 1947 Manc only got a couple of inches while the rest of Britain were digging themselves out! Then again, this could be a first. What is the shadow qnd does this explain why? Fascinated to know!
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10 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
The could be one of the big West Yorkshire snow events. Lived over there for 7 years and will never forget Jan 95. 50cm in Huddersfield. I'm back in the North West now which will be far more marginal!!!
That night is was all snow east of pennines and all rain on the west side
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1 hour ago, Cuban Zebra said:
Looking good for our neck of the woods!! What are the temps to go with it?
The could be one of the big West Yorkshire snow events. Lived over there for 7 years and will never forget Jan 95. 50cm in Huddersfield. I'm back in the North West now which will be far more marginal!!!
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12 minutes ago, EML Network said:
Its becoming obvious now for those South of London, get out and enjoy whatever snow falls tomorrow before the night because its looking likely to transition to rain as the system heads North.
Amazing just how far North the modelling has moved the PPN compared to what was being modelled just 24 hours ago.
London itself could be in a prime location
The BBC shorter term forecast is talking heavy and disruptive snow Thurs and Friday which ties in with some of the models. Holding my breath for where I am though. This type of event isn't a friend of Manchesters normally!!!
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We've got a few days before we will know the outcome . Blizzards lasting for days rarely comes off but just occasionally if everything falls right then they can. The reason we all remember the past events with clarity is because they don't happen that often. That's why we love it!
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17 minutes ago, alr1970 said:
A scarring of graupel overnight here, and the first beautiful sunny morning I can remember for a long time.
At my low altitude I'm sceptical of snow chances later in the week, but prepared to be pleasantly surprised. Snow to rain very much the likely outcome here.
Yes, in our neck of the woods it has to be pretty exceptional foe transitional events to keepnthe snow falling. Twas always the way for Manc. We fare better with the Irish Sea shower type snow. As you say though, you never know
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11 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:
Snow heading further north on Wed, this at 0300
Models showing plenty of snow opportunities for the week. Beyond, as ever, who knows. BBC mention another snow event Saturday but temps don't appear to support this. Anyone know why?
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I've been lamppost watching for as long as I can remember!
Why do we do this??
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10 minutes ago, EML Network said:
Haven't posted for a few days as the model varibility made it a bit of a fruitless exercise.
Channel low Wed night might give some a few hours of snowfall as its looking like it might come overnight, but its looking more and more like that will be sleet now or even just plain rain.
Beyond that I think we can safely say the daffolis will be pushing up the bodies
But I don't think it will be too long before were chasing another cold spell.
Been a pretty lack luster winter really after such a promising start.
Anyway wont be long now before many of us will be switching over to watching the precipitation sites and at least enjoying being out in snow falling from the sky.
We'll see.
We may even see a lower than average cet month 61 to 90, and there aren't may of them now! If we can get to 4 below average, it would be a colder first quarter as well. 91 to 2020 could well be colder than average for the month and quarter. Sorry, that's more stats than model. Am just excited about this week!
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21 minutes ago, Gowon said:
Yeah, this morning I was expecting all the models to be showing milder by next weekend into next week, but was confused after seeing GEM and ICON.
Yes, the models, weather forecasts are all showing very cold till Sat at least and though it may not be quite as cold the following week it looks like still well belown the march average. No records maybe, but cold and snow there will be
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14 minutes ago, Maz said:
I really can’t remember the last time an incursion from the SW gave frontal snow in NW England. Advance modelling always shows a variety of tracks, before the end result being SW England (maybe up to Birmingham) if the cold puts up a fight (or even N France) or Central Belt of Scotland if the cold is less well entrenched.
It must be possible for the leading edge to be in NW England, but when did it last happen?
Systems sliding down from NW, convective stuff from W’ly round to E’ly, troughs in a N’ly or a transitional few hours as a front sweeps across from the West, have all delivered in recent times. But, not the “all snow” leading edge slider type event. Hence I’m not optimistic for next week. Slider likely to be too far south but kill off the chances of other events.
I hope to be pleasantly surprised though….
You're so right about this and I've wondered a lot about it. The strange thing is though that the snow events you describe in more recent years have been much better for low elevations of NW. Its been quick, short lived, not loads but pretty as it hasn't turned to rain and slush. In my childhood there were definitely more of the Atlantic hitting cold air and sweeping in but you were lucky of the snow wasn't slush before you knew it in Manc. Much better for you where you were I imagine. The models suggest there could be a chance but as you pointed out, how many times do they stall before hitting the NW in the last couple of decades. If it happens I'll be jumping for joy!!
21 minutes ago, Maz said:I really can’t remember the last time an incursion from the SW gave frontal snow in NW England. Advance modelling always shows a variety of tracks, before the end result being SW England (maybe up to Birmingham) if the cold puts up a fight (or even N France) or Central Belt of Scotland if the cold is less well entrenched.
It must be possible for the leading edge to be in NW England, but when did it last happen?
Systems sliding down from NW, convective stuff from W’ly round to E’ly, troughs in a N’ly or a transitional few hours as a front sweeps across from the West, have all delivered in recent times. But, not the “all snow” leading edge slider type event. Hence I’m not optimistic for next week. Slider likely to be too far south but kill off the chances of other events.
I hope to be pleasantly surprised though….
The last ones I remember were I think mid 90's
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