Rob 79812010
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Posts posted by Rob 79812010
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19 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
On netweather latest monthly forecast
Netweather latest monthly forecast
I struggle to intepret the models but have noticed that some with a more scientific knowledge have repeatedly said that the signs for blocking that would benefit UK was always going to be late Dec and into early jan
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13 minutes ago, Matty88 said:
Anyone else find it ironic that we get deep decent cold when all the background say no to cold, and when the background signals predict cold (ie Mid-Late Dec) it all goes flat.
The less said about that and the state of long term forecasting the better !!
Yes, the recent cold spell a surprise
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1 hour ago, swfc said:
HIi ,where exactly tia
On netweather latest monthly forecast
57 minutes ago, TSNWK said:Source please
Netweather latest monthly forecast
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10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
That’s the strongest warming we’ve seen on an op so far at 10hpa
a long way off but something to monitor
what should be noted is that at the moment, I’d say the trop is much more influencial in the current trop/strat dance. Hence warmings at two weeks+ distance will likely have been influenced by waves from the trop early on in week 2. How reliable are the trop charts at that range ? Infact with the strat being quite benign, I wonder if trop waves would head up even more quickly and lead to warmings so could be even later in a run tropwise. (And therefore less reliable )
Latest monthly forecast suggest increasing chance of widespread snow in Jan. Models suggesting changes in Jan? Am liking it
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17 minutes ago, damianslaw said:
Didn't watch it. Here I believe snow lay on the ground from the 8th until month's end. Most of the snow fell by the 20th though, although I've seen bbc weather forecast footage from the 28th suggesting more snow fell then. I've seen photos from 1 Jan 82 with slushy snow still on the pavements. Early Jan brought a thaw and milder weather before the cold came back with avengence by the 7th, but Cumbria saw little further snow, just many ice days.
The 8-20 Dec was exceptionally snowy here, not beaten in Dec since, though 09 gave it a run for its money. Mind we've just had our biggest single fall of Dec snow since I don't know how long.. don't believe 1981 brought a foot of snow from one fall, though cumulative totals were more.
I think we had some snow flurries late eve of 25th Dec in 17, our last white christmas. Dec 2010 was our last year with a decent fall, 3 cms late morning.
The calender industry will be rolling out pics of Windermere for years with the snow. What an amazing event by ANY standards. Low altitude made it all the more incredible
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43 minutes ago, Weather-history said:
It was on earlier this year as Big Snow of 82. Bit disingenuous of channel 5 not to say this was a repeat. All they did was retitled it.
Absolutely 2004 they should have said. Did they mean London? Stockport had 4 inches of snow in the evening on Christmas day. Absolute better. Dec 2010 was exceptional for its crazy low temp for the month and huge snowfalls in parts of Yorkshire
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9 hours ago, That ECM said:
Morning, have a look at these in conjunction with the chart you refer to. You can then see why some are low temps or not.
I think IDO has given a good summary of where the output currently is. Things can and could change.
but as I say, based on current info from output his summary is very good imo.
Thankyou for explaining
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12 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
Surely this can lead to something much more promising than what is currently being shown?
Even if it doesn't, there's bags of time after that. Like others have said, Winter spells never get going until Boxing Day onward anyway, anything before is always a bonus.
I agree. This December looking likely to be close or maybe slightly below average with models indicating some colder weather back end of month. In my book, that's 2 decent December's on the bounce. February seems to be the problem in recent years.
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33 minutes ago, That ECM said:
Morning, have a look at these in conjunction with the chart you refer to. You can then see why some are low temps or not.
I think IDO has given a good summary of where the output currently is. Things can and could change.
but as I say, based on current info from output his summary is very good imo.
Thanks so much taking time to explain!
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10 minutes ago, Nick2373 said:
One run and the reapers are out for somethings that's 14 days away? anyway onto the here and now 00z still shows the dry mild period 14th-21st then a cool down with a 50/50 split at the moment but this is in the far reaches of FI. So a break from the rain allowing the UK To dry out, back to the 21st onward there is a pattern change which way it goes is yet to be decided and the seasoned model watchers should know this.
Could I ask a question as a relative novice? The ensemble charts as above seem to be quite useful as a reference point and show where there's uncertainty later in period which makes sense. I often look at GFS 2m temp models and they can show wild swings in F1 from run to run often showing very cold or very warm temps. In my untrained eye that tells me their not showing a more likely midway scenario??
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58 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:
Because, and this is going to sound rather ridiculoius; we have access to data that they don't.
Putting aside the fact businesses change operations etc depending on the weather, the Met Office don't have access to the GSDM framework, I've spoken to a number of senior mets and it's simply not used, the AAM is occasionally used for seasonal forecasting but never sub-seasonal forecasting, i.e the 10-30 day period.
To quote an anonymous source after asking if the AAM/GSDM is used internally;
With that in mind, the Met Office will be looking at the MJO in a more isolated state without factoring in the rest of the GSDM, GWO etc. That alone reduces confidence. The other thing being that despite the MJO/GSDM suggesting blocked patterns being likely during the late Dec period, that doesn't necessarily = the UK being on the cold side of things, we could end up with unfavourable blocking for UK cold.
So.. all in all, the Met being cautious and vague in the longer term makes sense, they have far more to lose. Us on here? If we go for cold and then it doesn't happen, does anyone really care? Not really.
We care
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4 hours ago, Weather-history said:
Dear Santa
I have been a good weather boy all year. Can you please be kind and deliver this for Christmas.
Regards Kevin
Remember 2004 when manc got 3 inches on Christmas day night? Covering 2010 but didn't snow. Think there was one when I was a kid. Mid late 70s
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1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:
I'm looking at the period 14th onwards for High Pressure taking over -
Hopefully the 12zs continue that theme,I'm OK with a cold High in the run up to Christmas.
Actually on second thoughts I want frigid Easterlies over Christmas!!
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9 minutes ago, Rob 79812010 said:
I still think this will be a decent winter month. A few days mild, then seasonal, maybe a day or two of mild again and the last week will define Dec as an average or slightly below or above. Cracking first week of December and some suggestions of colder to come in Jan and Feb. So 2 decent December's then for
Also, bit ranty now but read the other day that snow used to be common in nov and Dec. Think it was bbc article. If you lived on a mountain maybe. Honesty would like to see evidence for lowland areas having snowy November's. Never was in North West. Off topic but had to say it
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I still think this will be a decent winter month. A few days mild, then seasonal, maybe a day or two of mild again and the last week will define Dec as an average or slightly below or above. Cracking first week of December and some suggestions of colder to come in Jan and Feb. So 2 decent December's then for coldies!
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22 minutes ago, Dennis said:
this forum seems so depressed sometimes , i know its hard for winterlovers but there is so much on winter23/24
We've had a great start to winter, models throwing up all sorts of possibilities and potentially a cold end to the year
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10 minutes ago, booferking said:
I concur they pretty much follow the NWP outputs all this talk of having superior data i don't believe for 1 minute they were terrible with the cold spell recently could of made better weather forecast myself.
They're monthly forecast said there was no sign of any sustained cold weather and that was only a week before the cold started
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1 hour ago, Catacol said:
It would be quite hard to paint a better anomaly picture than that for snow potential. If folks hoping for wintry conditions aren't happy with this run they never will be.
I hope you're right. And unless there are any big surprises this month, it looks like December will pan out at average or just below temp wise
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51 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:
What they mean? Ie the op the det run and the control run are similar..They are 2 runs from a possible 30 runs on gfs and as much as 50 on the ecm. With each run being started from a slightly different variation in initial conditions..the det tending to be higher resolution with the op 2nd..The mean is roughly an average of all ensembles in the run.
Thanks so much for that. As I'm fairly new to this, the mean sounds like a good one for me to keep my eye on
. Find your posts really interesting by the way!
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Could anyone tell me what the op and control mean on an ensemble chart? Thankyou
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Taking account of some of the longer term models and seemingly some confidence that the latter part of December could be colder, I think it all looks pretty good. Should be slightly below average temps at mid point, probably 0.5 to 0.7 degrees, a colder back end of the month should result in a cold December overall. 2 years running! Not so bad really
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9 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:
Absolutely mate. Great post again. We've made great progress this season so early on which lays the foundation for a 'proper' winter. A winter that won't be frigid or cold throughout. Even the all time classics didn't deliver this. However, I think by the end of winter, many on here will be very satisfied indeed with their lot in terms of getting their wintry fix.
Totally agree. All our winters deliver mild periods. 63 and 47 were borderline biblical and so rare. 79 and 2010 had plenty of mild periods. The cold periods as I've said before were exceptionally cold in these winters. This winter has started well by any standards. This is the UK and one of the reasons we love the cold. Too much of anything and, well, it loses its gloss! Yes I spent all last night looking out of the window and it didn't really deliver. But sometimes it does. Maybe fun and games later in Dec. Some models suggesting it may
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11 minutes ago, Benny123 said:
Couldn’t agree more. Background signals might be promising, but doesn’t always deliver. Hopefully we’re not seeing a front loaded winter
I do think there are promising signs though for later in December. By mid December I think we'll be slightly below average given the very cold start and then probably mildish week to mid December. All to play for and as ever, lots of uncertainty
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26 minutes ago, Jacob said:
Looks like the PV stopped existing yet we are still getting westerly winds and mild-ish weather lol
For now anyway
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Winter 2023/24 Chat and Discussion
in Spring Weather Discussion
Posted
The same in Manchester. 1981 of course memorable. 2020 and 2022 were decent here. TBH it's weird as Manchester seems to have some snow most years now. When I was younger it was less so but the memorable ones were very memorable. 2009 2010 the best I've ever known